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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

IAN-UK Feb 28, 2021 4:49 am


Originally Posted by paulaf (Post 33066984)
As I said retired (very early) successful CFO.


Now THAT is a gnomic response :)

....but congratulations on the promotion

rockflyertalk Feb 28, 2021 4:52 am

There’s no going back. We can only go forward.

KARFA Feb 28, 2021 4:54 am


Originally Posted by rockflyertalk (Post 33067011)
There’s no going back. We can only go forward.

sorry, this made me think of the simpsons :)

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/83/ce...69303ddb4f.jpg

Kgmm77 Feb 28, 2021 5:41 am


Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33066988)
If by end of March deaths were heading back up and hospitalisations spiking again, then of course the relaxation of lockdown should be postponed. Why shouldn’t that principle apply both ways?

Because as has been found repeatedly over the last 12 months, hospitalisations are a lag indicator, 2-4 weeks in arrears, and if you decide on that basis, it’s too late. Even deciding on case increases is arguably too late based on the ineffectiveness of test and trace.


Originally Posted by Silver Fox (Post 33067006)
This was not ebola.

Indeed. 13,000 deaths over 45 years versus 2.5million in 12 months. And that with the severest movement restrictions in the history of the modern world. Without the restrictions it would’ve been multiples of this.

How would you have handled it differently? I’d love to know what you’d have done when the hospitals filled for example.

KARFA Feb 28, 2021 5:48 am


Originally Posted by Kgmm77 (Post 33067056)
Because as has been found repeatedly over the last 12 months, hospitalisations are a lag indicator, 2-4 weeks in arrears, and if you decide on that basis, it’s too late. Even deciding on case increases is arguably too late based on the ineffectiveness of test and trace.

indeed. All I am suggesting is we look at all the data, and the targets for our roadmap which presumably take in to account this well known lag. If the data is worse than the targets then slow down the relaxation, and if it is better consider maybe changing dates. The government has told us the roadmap is being led by data rather than dates after all.

paulaf Feb 28, 2021 6:01 am


Originally Posted by IAN-UK (Post 33067010)
Now THAT is a gnomic response :)

....but congratulations on the promotion

Not sure I understand your point, what promotion? My point was that I've done more business models working for a large international company than I've had hot dinners.

rockflyertalk Feb 28, 2021 6:08 am


Originally Posted by paulaf (Post 33067073)
Not sure I understand your point, what promotion?


Originally Posted by IAN-UK (Post 33067010)
Now THAT is a gnomic response :)

....but congratulations on the promotion

Perhaps he was referring to the promotion to retirement :)

ahmetdouas Feb 28, 2021 6:17 am


Originally Posted by flashware (Post 33066517)
With J&J now being approved as a single shot vaccine, will that make its way here? Could be another positive step in the wider program.

Issue is supply; UK has always been quick with approvals, at this stage a mere formality but if there is no vaccine available approvals are meaningless except for symbolic regions. J&J not produced here, so likely supply issues like Pfizer.

DaveS Feb 28, 2021 6:38 am


Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33066983)
Formally, I don't think anyone had any specific idea as to what exactly the vaccines would do, what success would look like, beyond a general hope to cut the death rate and prevent the NHS from being ovewhelmed, now and in the future. The reason being is that the clinical trials produced a whole load of data, based entirely on whether vaccines would reduce the likelihood of having a positive Covid test result after the vaccine. In it is now blindingly obvious that this is merely a helpful by product, what we really want is to prevent people from getting poorly, going to hospital, dying. These were not directly in the clinical trials, but recent data is giving this huge comfort factor at the top end of expectations. There was no expectation of transmission being arrested by vaccines, but thankfully it is now demonstrated.

But I can disclose one stark fact, shared with ministers yesterday, which has sent around a very pleasant shock to everyone: as of Saturday morning there wasn't a single person in ICU in England with Covid who was over 85 years old. The first time in 11 months.

The pressure we should be putting on our elected representatives is nothing to do with lockdown, it should be about speeding up vaccinations.

I cycled past the vaccination centre in my town yesterday afternoon. I was disappointed to see it closed. I know there must be supply issues, but it was still a sad sight.

ahmetdouas Feb 28, 2021 9:31 am

Cases now lower than September levels (percentage of positives) , yet everything was open then and then pray everything is closed. Not only that, we now have a good amount of the vulnerable vaccinated. Why are things closed ?

corporate-wage-slave Feb 28, 2021 9:44 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33067372)
Cases now lower than September levels (percentage of positives) , yet everything was open then and then pray everything is closed. Not only that, we now have a good amount of the vulnerable vaccinated. Why are things closed ?

'Cos an average of 324 people are still dying a day from a preventable disease. Serene patience for a few more weeks will make the sweet taste of victory feel even better for everyone. [Yesterday it was 334, btw]

ahmetdouas Feb 28, 2021 9:50 am


Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33067398)
'Cos an average of 324 people are still dying a day from a preventable disease. Serene patience for a few more weeks will make the sweet taste of victory feel even better for everyone. [Yesterday it was 334, btw]

yes but deaths are from cases a long time ago not now. We can’t dwell on the past but look to the future!

and with that logic then if deaths are zero in a few weeks we speed up the opening ?

TheOneThatGotAway Feb 28, 2021 9:54 am

How much more serene patience do we need to have? Everybody's lives have been thrown up in the air for nearly a year.

PxC Feb 28, 2021 9:54 am

The 7 day average for covid deaths has dropped 33.5% in the last week. Exciting stuff looking forward given only half of the vaccines dished out so far are currently effective.

corporate-wage-slave Feb 28, 2021 9:56 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33067416)
yes but deaths are from cases a long time ago not now. We can’t dwell on the past but look to the future!

And the future will be with us quite soon. We've all been through the mill on this, so we can gently wait a little longer. I've mentioned before about bad flu years, which would be when we have 200 deaths a day, and that can cause problems for hospitals, and occasionally close schools temporarily. When the death rate gets below 200 a day then I think you have a slightly stronger argument. The good news is that day is getting close, 9 more days or so, on current trends.


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