”Pessimistic”, ROFL.... Thankfully most people don’t get their medical advice from a failed accountant.

The word he was looking for was “conservative” (ironically). The reason it has to be conservative is if they plan on a more benign outcome and actual experience is not as good, thousands more die and hospitals get full again. If they err on the side of caution, they reduce the likelihood of this happening and the downside is people don’t get to go to Magaluf for 4-6 weeks, I simply can’t understand why someone would take the risk of the former for the latter.

It that correct though? Is the data showing better progress than expected?

Thats somewhat irrelevant. The idea that exit from restrictions should be somehow planned on anything other than a conservative basis, is quite frankly repugnant coming from a MP of the party that led the cataclysm of the last 12 months.

Not to me. I would like to know how things are going and whether progress is going well with the vaccine - possibly even better than the government predicted.

It should be going better than the prediction, hence the conservatism in the assumptions. This does not imply the original plan is either flawed or invalid. Further the use of a loaded word such as “pessimistic” and Harper’s incessant calls to update the model with positive data will erode the margin of safety.

I’ve had a look through his recent social media postings: nothing about the importance of continuing to adhere to restrictions, nothing about the terrible death total and hospitals being full and frontline staff being at the point of exhaustion. Instead its full of posts questioning the work of clinicians, statisticians and epidemiologists from someone who has zero qualifications. Oh and a post re-iterating that Eat Out to Help Out was “the right call” and was “COVID secure”. He’s an utter crank.

models are only as good as the data you put in. If the data changes surely the model should too. It would seem an odd strategy to pursue a model without amendment regardless of any new data (good or bad), wouldn’t you agree?

Not necessarily. My modelling experience isn’t in the medical field, but models are rarely dynamically updated, and particularly when performance is above expectations. You certainly should be monitoring actual vs expected, but you don’t rebuild the model every time you put data in.

But let’s leave me out of this and get back to the post I commented on re Mr Harper (a man with whom I share having precisely zero medical experience). His interest is skewed towards only towards positive data and he conveniently ignores the data that he doesn’t like (see Eat Out to Help Out). Ergo he has zero credibility.

yes sorry. I am not quite as fixated on this MP (whom I am not really familiar with) as you seem to be. I am rather more concerned with the question I raised, is the progress going better than expected? Is he correct? Or if not why?

With J&J now being approved as a single shot vaccine, will that make its way here? Could be another positive step in the wider program.

I neither have the data on which the models were built, nor do I have sufficient data to test their performance. And I’m not an epidemiologist. Nor is he. But feel free to knock yourself out on his website and social media, perhaps you might find the information you are looking for.

I would hope the performance is better then expected, on the basis that will hopefully lead to less deaths and less hospitalisations.

According to friends with kids and friends in the education sector it's about 15-20% over in West London. So... not many. Personally, I'll be holding my breath until the rules on travel come along. That should be some 5 weeks after the first opening and it should prove that things are going OK or not.

I think that would be similar here in Kent. We had a letter come round at the start of last month saying they had reached whatever capacity they decided they had and would not take any more key worker children. I think the definition of key worker must be fairly broad. The teaching staff are working every other week. Nice work if you can get it!

From the BBC:

I do not know what it was before, but this is whom it covers now.

I am enjoying the somewhat less traffic on the roads but it is noticeably more than other lockdowns, perhaps it is the broadening of the key worker role (if that did happen) that is causing this, I don't know.

It's very dependent on the make-up of jobs in a particular area. I know teachers working in schools where it's over 50% attendance (in areas where the majority of jobs are ones that need you to be physically present to do them). Round here, it's more like 30-35%

As for teachers working every other week, that's certainly not the case for any school I know. Teachers may not be in school full time, but are figuring out how to teach the same curriculum to those physically present and those learning from home, as well as implementing the ever-growing array of curriculum and distancing changes required by the DfE. About a 50% greater workload than usual, and under immense pressure.

All while facing a sneering, condescending attitude from people who think they're skiving off.