I may have mentioned it up thread, but I call it the slow car crash of news. I tend to flip between conspiracy and simple acceptance it’s mostly people being people.

Sorry to hear that. I hope you bounce back quickly.

Thanks! It is what it is; luckily we don’t face impending doom, my wife is employed and we can carry on with the severance for a while. It’d just be nice to be able to go somewhere while I look for a job but it’s not looking likely. I’ll just cycle around London and then get hired for something the day before they lift travel restrictions... :D

I would make several comments:
First off, throughout this pandemic, people have been choosing statistics to suit their own agenda - most infamously with the SAGE briefing in October where they had deliberately chosen out of date trends to highlight an immediate risk which, at that time, wasn't realistic. As Gladstone (or was it Disraeli?) said, there are "lies, damned lies and statistics". The issue for the population is that we don't know what to believe with completely contradictory but seemingly well-sourced statistics being thrown around. And, unlike in other areas, the journalists covering the area do not understand even basic statistics. It was noteworthy that, in the infamous October press briefing, the journalists who were scientifically trained and could ask sensible questions were deliberately and specifically excluded.

Second, the pressure on hospital admissions fortunately continues to drop. Also, by looking at the early results in Israel, and even earlier results in the UK, this drop should be strengthened by the vaccination programme. This is confirmed by the age profile of hospitalisations becoming younger. But this effect will only really accelerate in a month or so's time. However, the pressure on NHS hospitals will not go away as, for as long as we remain in this state of semi-existence, the backlog of other matters will continue to grow.

Third, those who have received doses are not immune, but are substantially protected from severe cases, hospitalisation and death - and now, it seems, also much less likely to be able to pass the disease on. When they have their second doses, they will be very substantially protected. It's looking very promising that the most vulnerable will be done by mid-February, all the vulnerable by end March and I'm seeing the start of information that everyone who wants the jab will have been offered a first dose at least by early to mid summer. I can already report that the oldies I know who have been unable to see loved ones are desperate to be visited, or jump in the car to make visits. At the moment, they remain cautious but I don't think that caution will hold much longer. I've also observed that the attitude is evolving in London. I am now seeing less caution on the streets than before it became clear that a) cases are falling and b) the vaccination programme was working.

Fourth, the great public opinion statistics. The problem with them is that they are out of step with what people actually do. Whilst I don't know anyone who is flagrantly ignoring the rules, I also don't know anyone (80+ year olds included) who is following them to the letter. Public opinion seems to favour having strict rules for others and "sensible" rules for themselves, "sensible" meaning "I'll do it because it won't do any harm". By and large the great majority of people comply with the great majority of even the pettiest of the rules. But, as confidence grows, you will see those "great majorities" decreasing.

Fortunately, the government is aware of this, unlike the internet pundits.

Won't that prolong the lockdown unfortunately?

If your answer is no, it it because you think some of the rules have no effect on infection rates, and if so which ones?

Oh, that's just people being people. And people will tell you either what they think you want to hear or what they think will be fashionable. If we went purely by opinion polls, we'd still be having grizzly public executions.

Neither.

Though, to be fair, it is an aphorism generally, but quite erroneously, ascribed to Disraeli. Perhaps an example of how public opinion gets things wrong :D



I largely agree with your analysis, though I'm unsure why you are harking back to October. I remember that Whitty, Vallance et al were clearly alarmed by forecasts of infection rates: I remember them presenting a full range of forecasts of unconstrained growth in infections, hospitalisation and deaths - which were maybe alarmist, given that constraints were being imposed. But i didn't take exception to that approach to explaining why additional measures were required.

And here it's probably not a good idea to attribute to the wider public an individual, and somewhat sceptical, view of the world. And I'm guessing you employ "completely contradictory" for rhetorical effect.

There has been some confusion about the interpretation of estimates of R numbers produced by different investigators: and with hindsight it was maybe not smart to give such significance to an ephemeral statistic, particularly at the level of population granularity developed late last year. But, by and large, change in R numbers were solid indicators of increases, or falls, in infection rates.

.....and we'd wlecome an incresse in income tax :D

From the BBC website not looking good for overseas travel from Scotland:

"Nicola Sturgeon has signalled overseas travel could be curtailed for months as part of an effort to help return school pupils to classrooms in Scotland."

Interesting analysis of lockdown stay-home vs going to work, based on smart electricity meter data - twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1357084220087230465

TL;DR This lockdown has seen a lot more people working from home than the last one, nearly as many as the first, but it's trending back up again

Not surprising. People need to go to the office. We've actually downsized our office; the flexibility is permanent (and I'm assured the occasional working holiday is still fine with the business). But while in Manchester, it will be good to get that tram to Shadowmoss (one stop shy of Manchester Airport) once or twice a week. I'm also looking forward to pub lunch with actual human beings.

In other news.... The old man finally got his first jab today. As I'm living with the old dears at the moment, and as the AZ jab can have some quite interesting side affects*, I decided to accompany him. Superdrug in the City Centre was very well organised so I'll probably be going there myself in the next few weeks.

* My manager's old fella was fine in the 15 minutes post jab, left the very same branch of the Superdrug; thereafter collapsed and did a bit of a faceplant at the bus stop....

Another good day for vaccines today - 480k first doses given, however, according to the BBC, the government said it will have offered all 9 groups at least a first dose by May, which to me is not great news because it represents a significant reduction in the speed at which vaccines are happening, in fact a reduction in speed of over 30%.

Over the last seven day, the number for both doses given is approximately 3.1 million. All 9 groups represent 32 million people. As of the 15th of Feb, we expect to hit 15 million people. From then till the end of May, all of those 15 million need to be given a second dose, and the other 17 million people in groups 5 - 9 will be vaccinated with their first dose; therefore 32 million total doses over 15 weeks - roughly 2.1 million per week.

One way to look at this is that the government is under-promising withe hope to over-deliver, but I doubt that. The government had a target of 15 million by mid-Feb, and it appears like they will deliver, not 'over'-deliver.

If this timeline holds true, it appears like we'll be locked down potentially well into the summer. The Daily Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak is frustrated that the scientists 'keep moving the goal-posts' and "It's no longer just about hospitalisations and protecting the NHS but cases and case numbers".

This is becoming very frustrating now. In January, we were told lockdowns were happening till we got groups 1-4 vaccinated. Then we were told possibly March 8, for 3 weeks after vaccines took effect in these groups. Now it's likely to be till summer!

I know vaccine supply can be an issue, but Moderna supplies begin arriving here in April. Novavax and J&J have shown great effectiveness in Stage III trials (J&J has already applied for FDA approval in the US - and if approved should be going into people's arms early March). So why is their a projected real slow down in vaccinations?

I really do believe this is under-promising which seems to be the recent approach. CWS (who seems to have a lot of knowledge on the subject) would seem to suggest that the capability is there to potentially increase the rate rather than material concern about having to decrease it.

I think the country will move onto Group 10 between April 1 and April 15.

I really hope you're right! If we have the top 9 groups done early April, there's no reason for continuing lockdown past the end of April surely?? Especially after the recent Oxford study said the first dose provided really good protection from 3 weeks after the dose.

I completely agree, I'm getting increasingly frustrated by the goalposts seeming to keep moving out. We were sold the lockdown I felt until 15th Feb, which was reasonable to protect the most vulnerable, then they added 3 weeks on until 8th March for the level of immunity, now only schools are opening then and nothing else significant, now May is increasingly being bandied about. I thought 88% of deaths occur in groups 1-4 so isn't that enough? It seems we are moving to trying for a 0 Covid strategy?
Also I noticed on the vaccine calculator my husband aged 56 was originally 3rd week of March now its moved to mid April, using the same criteria. Fed up!