The government still has difficult questions to answer over the delay to put India on the red list. They need it to not be a problem. Contrast the response to that of the South Africa variant where much of Southern Africa was red listed early and the government was reluctant to say the variant was not a problem. In the last month or so, the Indian variant has clocked up around five times as many cases here as the overall total for the SA variant.

maybe they are just not concerned about variants anymore? Cases not going up and the variant has been in country for a while now.

It seems that the government is actively covering up the spread of the Indian variant and the risk that it poses to the country, and PHE is complicit.

PHE held a press conference on Saturday trumpeting ‘good news’ with a 10.30pm embargo. And then dumped a load of critical data showing devastating news about the spread of the variant at exactly same time on Saturday night, too late for the papers, which were anyway already full of the 'good news'.

Now the government quietly advised against all but essential travel to several areas of England. Government minister Denise Coffey was asked about that this morning on ITV News and replied that it was not publicised because it is only 'formal guidance' and not law.

This could turn very nasty indeed.

'devastating'? Where in the figures is this devastating. Spread low, deaths essentially non existent, hospitalisations very low. Looks like a dying virus trying to do its best to spread before it's killed forever to me.

Sorry if it has been asked before, I had a look at Scotland's guidance on travel and transport, but not sure if I got this right.
Is it legal to fly from London to Glasgow, and stay overnight at one of hotels near the airport?
Both airport and hotels are in Paisley, which seems (to me) to be outside Glasgow City area (zone 3).

Hi,

Yes it is

Regards
Tbs

Everyone one is trying to use modelling to predict the future (including SAGE using and publishing multiple models, to their credit).

This twitter thread was the most informative to me:


If I was in charge I would keep the existing reopening plans, but with some of the non intrusive restrictions maintained such as testing for big events (concerts etc) and masks when indoors with many people. The only certainty seems to be that the vast majority will have antibodies against COVID-19 by the end of the year, either from the vaccine or from the virus (and many people from both!).

The phase 3 and 4 reopening was expected to cause a third wave and an estimated 3,000 to 11,000 deaths (depending on the model used) even before the B.1.617.2 variant came along, so while I'm sure there will be a rewriting of history by some I'm not sure much has really changed.

However on travel - if B.1.617.2 become dominant then the UK can expect to be on the receiving end of other countries (especially those where fewer are vaccinated) travel restrictions this summer. Also, the UK' travel restrictions just seem to have inconvenienced millions of people, while doing nothing to stop the entry of the new variant. That's tragic from my point of view.

Indeed. They criminalised travellers, introduced penalties harsher than those you'd get for very heinous crimes and, yet, no one seemingly checked that people complied with them (see figures for India and Pakistan vs ROW). It's hard not to feel like a muppet for having followed the rules.

Indeed, Austria is now stopping the UK. Some - like Brazil (!) - never removed the ban from the UK after the Kent variant appeared.


BTW - what has happened with J&J, and the grand plan that in June the over 18s would be getting their one jab before dashing off to Ibiza? There has been very little noise about the approval or use of J&J (or further moderna deliveries, or novovax). It is odd in the context that the EU has been using J&J for a while now.

Hasn't the J&J vaccine suffered from the same clotting issue as AZ? In that case it wouldn't be given to under 40s.

Yes. Clotting is a concern with J&J. Whether it’s identical to the AZ issue or not, I don’t know but the two vaccines are broadly similar.

Yeh it has, which has probably slowed down any progress towards being approved here, possibly? It seems like we have enough AZ, Moderna and Pfizer for everyone, as well as an extra 60 million Pfizer to come online in Autumn as a 'booster'. Then there is also Novavax, which is expected in Q3. So I can't imagine we really need J&J?

Just get everyone jabbed twice, job done, whether the doom and gloom brigade like it or not.

J&J have suffered significant production, QA and regulatory challenges, including having to destroy 15m doses at an outsourced plant in the US because of potential cross-contamination with AZ ingredient.

I believe deliveries in the EU are substantially delayed, would expect UK may be in a similar position.

Personally I strongly prefer my under 30 daughters get Pfizer or Moderna.