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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

alex67500 Apr 7, 2021 9:29 am


Originally Posted by 8420PR (Post 33159479)
And the UK has just said for people under 30 the risks outweigh the benefits. Below is Jonathan Van-Tam's slide he just presented:
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...bdc6780bc1.png

Interesting, and actually much more worrying than I initially thought. Does anybody know why the risks get lower with higher age? I thought older people were more at risk of clotting in the first place?

LGWClosedAgain Apr 7, 2021 9:30 am


Originally Posted by Misco60 (Post 33159284)
The UK ordered a total of 457 million doses from 8 different manufacturers, of which only 100 million were AZ. I really don't think that can be considered to be one basket.

It just so happened that the AZ vaccine was one of the first actually available and the one that has been administered the most, which isn't the same thing.

I only included approved vaccines, which AZ makes up 64% of the 157 million doses and most (all maybe?) of the remaining Pfizer doses are second doses.

I'm pointing out that over the next two months AZ makes up the vast majority of first doses and the loss of it would delay the July date for everyone to be offered a first dose. The orders for other vaccines are irrelevant until they are approved and available.

Silver Fox Apr 7, 2021 9:34 am

Australian Covid vaccine rollout to continue after blood clot case in Melbourne

"Australia’s acting chief medical officer says there will be no changes to the national vaccination program for Covid-19 while health authorities continue to investigate whether blood clots developed by a 44-year-old Victorian man are linked to the AstraZeneca jab."

He doesn't seem to fit the <30 narrative. There's probably more risk in this world due to obesity and heart disease, so let's ban food. It really doesn't sound as though they have enough data to hand to be definitive as to what this "rarity" is.

ahmetdouas Apr 7, 2021 10:05 am


Originally Posted by alex67500 (Post 33159561)
Interesting, and actually much more worrying than I initially thought. Does anybody know why the risks get lower with higher age? I thought older people were more at risk of clotting in the first place?

Younger people have a stronger immune system = more reactions. That's my theory at least (don't quote me as a medical expert please).
Let's also take into effect as they have that young people don't really need the vaccine to protect themselves too much as very low risk of issues for them, it's more for herd immunity/protecting community purposes.

More importantly cases very low today as well as UK is close to herd immunity from vaccinations + immunity.

And for all intents and purposes, lockdown is essentially over as of next Monday (hopefully the weather improves by then!).
I think the high streets will look much more normal as of Monday, and I will be out and about to check that out.

rockflyertalk Apr 7, 2021 10:17 am

Outdoor hospitality opens on Monday


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...832ff2266.jpeg

slicktony Apr 7, 2021 10:19 am

1 Attachment(s)

Originally Posted by Misco60 (Post 33159129)
The UK's eggs were not all "put in one basket": we've ordered vaccines from several manufacturers.

And I think it's clear that the UK's strategy - some said gamble - has paid off handsomely, with infections, hospitalisations and deaths down by 95% while mainland Europe suffers a new wave and a vaccine shortage.

I wouldn't dispute the vaccine roll-out has been going well (not least because I'm due to get my first shot tomorrow! Woo-hoo!) But on the difference between the UK and the EU in terms of infections, I wouldn't overlook the spread of the B.1.1.7 strain, as illustrated by this graphic from the FT. It might simply be that some of those countries struggling at the moment are doing so because the spread of the more contagious variant which scared those of us in the UK so badly at the beginning of the year has in the past month has really caught fire across the continent.

Misco60 Apr 7, 2021 10:26 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33159649)
And for all intents and purposes, lockdown is essentially over as of next Monday...

Far from it, I'm afraid.

TomMM Apr 7, 2021 10:38 am


Originally Posted by slicktony (Post 33159692)
I wouldn't dispute the vaccine roll-out has been going well (not least because I'm due to get my first shot tomorrow! Woo-hoo!) But on the difference between the UK and the EU in terms of infections, I wouldn't overlook the spread of the B.1.1.7 strain, as illustrated by this graphic from the FT. It might simply be that some of those countries struggling at the moment are doing so because the spread of the more contagious variant which scared those of us in the UK so badly at the beginning of the year has in the past month has really caught fire across the continent.

Do they break that out by age. I read a story here in the US that a higher percentage of younger people are being infected with the variants.

chimichanga Apr 7, 2021 10:46 am


Originally Posted by LGWClosedAgain (Post 33159565)
I only included approved vaccines, which AZ makes up 64% of the 157 million doses and most (all maybe?) of the remaining Pfizer doses are second doses.

I'm pointing out that over the next two months AZ makes up the vast majority of first doses and the loss of it would delay the July date for everyone to be offered a first dose. The orders for other vaccines are irrelevant until they are approved and available.

Are there any stats available that break down how many Pfizer/BioNTech vs AZ vaccine doses have been administered in the UK?

slicktony Apr 7, 2021 10:58 am


Originally Posted by TomMM (Post 33159738)
Do they break that out by age. I read a story here in the US that a higher percentage of younger people are being infected with the variants.

Not that I have seen, although someone I'm sure will be along shortly if they have!

What's really interesting I think is that it suggests that the UK may really benefit from the timing of the roll-out and the fact that vaccine levels are reaching critical mass at a point when infection rates are at a low - it will take much longer in some European states for the impact of vaccination to really start taking effect because of where they are starting from.

I'm genuinely hopeful that the worst may be over in the UK, for the moment at least. The fact that vaccine distribution is so uneven across the world and the potential for resistant strains to spring up in part as a result is the thing that gives me the most concern in the coming months. Not least, the implications that may have on travel... which is... after all... why we are all here!

LGWClosedAgain Apr 7, 2021 11:13 am


Originally Posted by chimichanga (Post 33159752)
Are there any stats available that break down how many Pfizer/BioNTech vs AZ vaccine doses have been administered in the UK?

I don't know if the exact number is publicly tracked but they said today that over 20M people have had the first dose of AZ, total first doses are around 31.5M so I would hazard around 11M doses of Pfizer but I do not know how much of a split there is between first and second doses.

The link for tracking which vaccine is used has been dead for a couple of weeks.

Dan1113 Apr 7, 2021 11:53 am

The Scotland database lets you look at AZ vs Pfizer administered doses so you can see it for Scotland. There is no Moderna yet so I guess SCO has not started with it yet.

It also splits by dose 1 or dose 2.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...43010/Overview
The vaccinations tab.

chimichanga Apr 7, 2021 12:03 pm


Originally Posted by Dan1113 (Post 33159934)
The Scotland database lets you look at AZ vs Pfizer administered doses so you can see it for Scotland. There is no Moderna yet so I guess SCO has not started with it yet.

It also splits by dose 1 or dose 2.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/p...43010/Overview
The vaccinations tab.

Super interesting, thanks! Didn't realize that Pfizer 1st doses have stalled since end of March.
Wish they had that kind of dashboard for England too

corporate-wage-slave Apr 7, 2021 12:15 pm


Originally Posted by LGWClosedAgain (Post 33159565)
I'm pointing out that over the next two months AZ makes up the vast majority of first doses and the loss of it would delay the July date for everyone to be offered a first dose. The orders for other vaccines are irrelevant until they are approved and available.

There isn't going to be a loss of AZ from the vaccine programme, merely a reconfiguration of rollout strategy. That is based on what we know now. Novavax is expected to be approved shortly, and then J&J. Right now the July date - for vaccines to everyone over 16 / 18 years old, is looking more plausible rather than less. The new people getting AZ today were in the 40s on the whole.

Dan1113 Apr 7, 2021 12:53 pm


Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33160002)
There isn't going to be a loss of AZ from the vaccine programme, merely a reconfiguration of rollout strategy. That is based on what we know now. Novavax is expected to be approved shortly, and then J&J. Right now the July date - for vaccines to everyone over 16 / 18 years old, is looking more plausible rather than less. The new people getting AZ today were in the 40s on the whole.

What about the reports of the massive slowdown and the lack of doses for the first dose? The guardian made it seem very gloomy.


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