26volt

can't recall who did the interview, though remember well they were trying to court KE and CA. They did their studies, and they told the officials the demographics weren't there to start flights from ONT. So, that leaves BR, MU, and CX. Unless CZ, HU, and MF want to become adventurous and risk starting operations at ONT.

26volt

You have point there. It's not worth being there three hours before. For example, the flight leaves the gate at 10:55p, so I'd say, go eat out at Ontario Mills, then get there at 9:30-9:45pm just to be in the safe side.

Mama

OMG...that is exactly what they told me when I asked for noodles.

coolfish1103

You still need a adequate lounge or everyone will arrive 30 minutes before the check in cut off time and the check in will be a zoo (and always delayed).

I don't see BR wanting to move any flights to ONT. Their 3 daily is doing fine in LAX capturing different transit markets. With CI dumping 6/5, they took pretty much all the business transit travelers from TPE.

If the departure time is working well for CI, I can see a second daily coming in at evenings. If the 359 can be full in early November during off-peak, I don't see why this route would not work.

I think one of the Chinese carriers may be an option, they are not afraid of losing $.

CI has moved their cut off time to 1 hour straight, so if you miss it you are out of luck. Better arrive 9:15-30. I think I arrived at around 9:20. An adequate lounge is still needed.

I guess I wasn't the only one who met incompetent lazy FAs. I can only wish JAL moves a LAX flight here

26volt

Thanks for the heads up and saving me the drama if I got there really late.

With the lounge, I agree about making it more adequate. I know there were several shoppes next to were the lounge is at the moment. If ONT doesn't want to risk enough $ for the extension, I'd go ahead at least put some money on the lounge. I'd move the bookstore that presently located near the lounge to the other side of T2, and demolish most of the walls that connect the other shoppes to the lounge, and just refurbish that entire corner. Though, the lounge would not only will it be used for CI's passengers, though UA and DL would use it for it's First Class/Business clientele especially now that DL is going to launch dual daily flights to ATL next year or for those wanting to go in there with a fee. It could be fully staffed during the early morning and night.

coolfish1103

I think most of the flights departing from ONT has very little First or even Business cabin so it would not be a big usage. It's just an escape lounge and not branded as Delta Sky Club or United Club so I doubt there is much of usage from the airlines. It's mostly going to be available for credit card or PP clients. The airline that will use the lounge is mainly going to be China Airlines, plus any other airlines that will join. Though if ONT does build a connector one would expect some T4 departing guests would want to come here and enjoy some snacks.

26volt

What's with ONT releasing their September metrics almost two months after. CAA is about to release OCT's numbers.

Here's ONT's numbers for CI September 10,833/14,678 = 73.8%
Here's CAA's 10,656/14,678 = 72.6%

There's still that 1 % variance between them.

coolfish1103

I think the ONT flight is capturing the market moving into evenings.

2018/10
LAX
CI 18,858/22,196 85.0%
BR 48,767/60,115 81.1%

ONT/CI 13,697/16,514 82.9%

Wonder if EVA is feeling any pressure now?

2017/10
LAX
CI 34,505/42,244 81.7%
BR 47,968/60,448 79.4%

26volt

​​​​Those are nice numbers coming from ONT, and goes with what most have said, it needed to be a late night flight. Though the caveat, these numbers are with doing 5 day than going weekly .

I have screenshot November's seating and I expect to see equal or even higher load %.

Perhaps a dynamic frequencies is what will help ONT in the long run. During the slow months keep it at 5 a week, then when the holidays and summer go daily.

Though I'm worried for December since the first week and a half - five days to be exact spread throughout that week and half, the A350 is almost empty except PY and J. As soon it reaches Dec 10 it gets fully packed to mid January. Though, it's somewhat the same at LAX with 3 days were that 77W is empty as well and the other days is a third to half full. Perhaps it's due to slowing down after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Regarding BR. I sense some of those who flew them live far nearer to ONT, and decided to save themselves the hassle and drama of going to LAX hence that lower load %. We have to keep watch for November's numbers and if they stay the same while ONT goes up like I expect, I guess BR might float the idea of moving one of their flights to ONT too just to see the reaction of the market.

One last thing, Knowing that there's a 1% variance with ONT own metrics that 82.9% could end up being 83.9 or 84%.

coolfish1103

Well, when CI 6/5 were in operation in the past 10 years, they were mostly 5 weekly using 747 or 777, so it's still comparable to say that the traffic at ONT has picked up. With 359 being considerably smaller in number of seats, I would think operating the flight on a daily basis is going to be fine (maybe even substitute 777 for peak periods).

I was personally in one of the November ONT-TPE flight and that flight was full on a Friday night. I would guess the weekend flights would have packed cabin while leaving the weekday flights are more or less riding on a 50-70% full cabin.

I don't know why there is a variance between the ONT authority and the number CAA picked up, there isn't a different configuration for CI in either 77W or 359, one of these numbers must be inaccurate.

26volt

Glad to hear the comparison with CI5/6.

You're right. From the screenshots i got from Expert Flyer, Thurs, Friday, and Saturday are CI23 strongest days during November. There weakest have been Sunday and Tuesday.

​​​​​​The chaps at airliners.net caught the variance a few months back. Looks nice to have bigger numbers though you're right. One of them must be wrong. Plus it doesn't help that ONT released there metrics every two three months which leaves room for error.

You having flown LAX-TPE route, is there a slowing down during the first week and half of December since that's what I've noticed for both CI7/C23 while CI8/CI24 are doing far better.

bocastephen

Moving to a late evening departure that enables morning connections ex-TPE was the right move, otherwise ONT/TPE was almost strictly O/D and the loads and yields were not being optimized. It is clear the market, in general, prefers ONT over LAX, and ONT's catchment includes almost the entire core market for Asia service, from the San Gabriel Valley eastward - only the much smaller Taiwanese/Asian population in Orange County is going to be somewhat equidistant to LAX and be in a position to choose LAX over ONT.

The only issue is premium cabin traffic - without a lounge or an exclusive holding area, anyone who prioritizes a premium ground experience will favor LAX, but I would suggest there is no Skyteam or *A Lounge at LAX that would be better than having dinner at home or in a nearby restaurant and arriving at the airport 60-70 minutes before departure and be ready to board almost right away, especially when you consider the LAX evening security clusterhell at Bradley without BR or CI offering pre-check.

bzcat

I think we need to stop looking at the load factor % because of the equipment change.

Going by the raw passenger count, the picture for ONT is still a bit mixed... The October passenger count is about 1,200 higher than April when the route launched with forced change from people who booked CI5/6. That's about 20 per day each way. Good... not not great.

And the ONT service has basically no impact on BR's ops at LAX. The load factors (since no equipment or frequency change, we can directly compare the %) are pretty much where they were in April. Both BR and CI went up during summer months.

Basically, I would say it is still too early to say ONT is a success (or failure). My guess is CI 5/6 ex-LAX was making about the same amount as ONT now. The lower operating costs of A350 (assuming there is one) is probably more than offset by the fixed costs of split ops and lost cargo revenue.

tris06

By far this route would be struggling without the A350. Reduction in cost of trip and the plane is holding similar numbers to what the B777 was holding but at higher loadings. If CI thinks its a sustainable route now then I think it is safe from the chop. Route awareness will gradually build up over the years. Who knows CI might be the odd one at ONT for some time. If loadings go above 85% over a 6-12 month period then expect others to want to jump in quickly. If BR jumps into ONT they will have to use the 787 as anything else will mean extreme over capacity to Asia from ONT.

bocastephen

There won't be overcapacity to Asia from ONT - the correct airport catchment for Asia flights is ONT not LAX - what could happen, although unlikely, is overcapacity at the airport with multiple evening widebody flights choking the security and gate areas with almost 1,000 pax over a short timeframe.