bzcat

Yea that's not good news for CI if this pattern holds up. The split op for the LA area doesn't really make sense unless CI can get higher yield ex-ONT vs. LAX - i.e. get people to in SGV, IE and OC to pay more for the convenience of flying out from ONT. But based on the airfare being offered, the reverse is probably true... people are using ONT because it is cheaper, not because it is convenient.

This is what I predicted would happen at the start of the thread when timing was mentioned. If both flights are departing at the same time, CI is just replacing higher yield ex-LAX customers with lower yield ex-ONT ones because ONT and LAX are in the same travel market and have the same O&D customers. This is why CI initially tried to do daytime flight because it wasn't making money on the daytime LAX flight anyway. Now that they move ONT to night time, the yield and load factor for the LAX night time flight will be negatively impacted.

Let's see if CI will adjust the fare going forward. If you start seeing ONT being more expensive than LAX, you know the strategy is working. If ONT continues to be cheaper than LAX, CI will eventually pull the ONT flight.

26volt

Note: Eco Super Fares (dirt cheap fares) for A359 are rows 69-75 and for 77W its 64-72 .
Eco Saver for A359 are rows 66-68 and for 77W its rows 62-63

CI 23 1101

CI 7 1101

I've been looking at this for a while and its a pattern that follows from now to late October. During late Oct, they've adjusted the fares, and both LAX and ONT have equal pricing.

Also, we see the introduction of the A359 to ONT. The loads become almost equal though with some days the tilt being to ONT while others to LAX.

Since the A359 is somewhat smaller than the 77W, in ONT they've mostly sold out their dirty cheap fares, and those wanting the same price have no choice but to drive to LAX.

Here's attachment showing for a flight in Nov 1 that have same fare pricing.

coolfish1103

If they swap all the flights to 359 then there wouldn't be any problem. An afternoon 359 for LAX and one evening 359 each for ONT and LAX.

One should also look at the loads for BR, I seriously doubt only CI's LAX flight is getting hit with this change.

26volt

Introducing the A359 for LAX will be helpful to equalize with ONT even with price equalization after Late Oct since the loads somewhat stabilize with CI7/CI23 though one plane (77W) will be leaving with fewer sold seats, so the A359 will be needed from now on for LAX.

Checked the loads for BR's Tuesday Morning flight (9/18) and they look the same - full. With CI 7's looking better now.

Though, Friday morning flights (9/21) CI7, BR11/15 have taken a hit, with CI7 taking most of the brunt. Hope these screenshots for 20/21st help to see what's happening with the inclusion of ONT to the mix.

BR11 9/21

BR15 9/21

CI 7 9/21

ONT CI 23 9/20

26volt

After price stabilization for both flights, this is what's seen.

This is for 1109
Note: Eco Super Fares (dirt cheap fares) for A359 are rows 69-75 and for 77W its 64-72 .
Eco Saver for A359 are rows 66-68 and for 77W its rows 62-63

CI 7 1109

ONT CI 23 1109

Another example, this is from 1117

Note for those who are worrying about ONT selling cheaper fares, on this day CI Eco Saver fare is cheaper at LAX than ONT.

CI 7 1117

Ci 23 1117


Like Coolfish mentioned before, and these load screenshots show, CI will need to introduce the A359 for LAX.

26volt

Went back to check the loads after what I mentioned earlier, now with checked in passengers and it seems the loads for CI23/CI7 are equal for this week(9/17) up until to 920/921 as seen on the previous attachments.
.CI 7 918

CI 23 917

Well let's how LAX/ONT work together in the long run with the switch.

coolfish1103

August just got released.

ONT
6 15,442/21,480 71.9%
7 15,186/22,196 68.4%
8 15,439/20,406 75.7%

LAX
6 19,312/21,480 89.9%
7 19,800/22,196 89.2%
8 20,382/22,554 90.4%

LAX/BR
6 50,626/58,147 87.1%
7 52,194/59,106 88.3%
8 54,173/61,011 88.8%

tris06

Why does CI have a consistent higher loading at LAX? Is it because BR has 2-3 flights per day so other times are less busy? Also I tried that website. can you link directly to the numbers for each route? I am curious about LGW and BNE/AKL.

hayzel7773

1 flight(CI) to 3 flights a day(BR) so the #'s will be somewhat lower for BR. The pax are split amongst the 3 flights. LAX is one of the lower loading destinations of BR.

26volt

I've looked through the numbers, and downloaded the PDF's, though if your not native speaker, you'll need a google translator to help you out.

26volt

The ONT numbers are getting there though at least its out of the dumps (50's) like they were in April and May. Frankly, I was expecting a plunge in August after seeing July's numbers, though they went back up. Perhaps we can speculate it stays in the 70's or barely hit the 80's with the evening departure change.

OIAA authority released a press statement regarding the switch to evening departures. However, what made the statement interesting while they're emphasizing connection aspect in TPE to the rest of Asia for this change, OIAA mentioned another time adjustment for the flights might occur in the future.

https://www.flyontario.com/corporate...taiwan-flights

If that should occur, the possible scenarios I could see happening, they might finally swap the afternoon arrival to nights, or have a 'fluid' schedule were this flight is swapped for daytime during the summer time, and swap back to nights during the Fall/Winter to keep consistent loads.

coolfish1103

I would expect another schedule change to make ONT late night departure so the plane is not wasted parking in ONT even though it's free. However, until they sorted out planes utilization for ONT and LAX I don't see that happening (unifying them both to 359 or 77W).

This number does not look good for August. Generally end of May early June and mid to end of August are when the students and families take flights. The % only looked higher cause they cut some flights. It's basically reverting the flight back to CI 6/5 status but a bit early since it's usually peak time till mid September.

The late night rotation just started so we shall see how things go starting from September. If they can keep the 75% loading even during those low periods, then I'd say ONT is doing okay.

It's quite normal for BR to have a lower loading as the number of seats it provides are much greater than CI. If it's the other way around then CI is in deep trouble. Generally those who prefer CI/Skyteam will stick to CI so that makes the only LAX flight much fuller than it use to.

You will need to understand Mandarin to process the information so if you cannot find it from the link I gave you you will have a hard time reading the .pdf file anyway.

BNE (w/o AKL)
1 10,417/18,113 57.5
2 16,433/25,256 65.1
3 7,486/12,883 58.1
4 10,879/18,666 58.3
5 8,465/18,972 44.6
6 9,698/18,054 53.7
7 13,310/19,278 69.0
8 10,008/18,666 53.6

No information on TPE-AKL or BNE-AKL (correction).

BNE/BR
1 9,591/11,340 84.6
2 7,288/8,064 90.4
3 8,043/9,072 88.7
4 6,714/8,067 83.3
5 5,063/5,796 87.4
6 7,932/8,820 89.9
7 9,683/11,088 87.3
8 9,460/11,340 83.4

LGW
12 9447/11,016 85.8
1 8,145/10,710 76.1
2 7,780/9,972 79.5
3 8,437/11,628 72.6
4 9,729/12,852 75.7
5 7,672/12,546 61.2
6 10,899/13,158 82.8
7 12,050/13,464 89.5
8 12,086/13,464 89.8

No information on TPE-LHR or BKK-LHR.

26volt

You have a point there. I guess after the holidays we'll see if CI goes ahead and swap the 77W with A359.

I can see them change CI 24 to nights for their last adjustment.

I hope they revert back to their 5 day schedule after the holidays to keep those higher load %

As a resident near ONT I'm crossing my fingers the loads stay at 75% or higher since that will mean other airlines might test out ONT, and by that reliving some stress from those having to drive to LAX.

hayzel7773

The BNE #'s for CI look absolutely horrific.

tris06

I think what it is. Anyone flying from AKL-TPE is not counted on the BNE-TPE sector. Yes if those numbers represented the real loading of the aircraft then you would expect the route to get cut quickly. However you can see BR's loading at around 87/88 percent. CI has a far stronger presence in Australia. I will admit my flight on the 11 of July was like 40-60 percent full but that was Because of the typhoon arriving that evening. Large numbers of passengers cancelled and the flight departed at 5pm. It was interesting to see 2 CI A350s at Brisbane airport at the same time plus 2 BR A330"s. When I get time I will need to check that pdf. I can read some simple chinese. However it is traditional chinese So I will muddle through. What I remember was a website not a pdf.