Coronavirus in Sweden
Sep 9, 2020, 1:26 am
#1096
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Norway's infection rates are increasing, and nationally, Norway now has more infected people than Sweden has. Bergen is one of those places with a local outbreak. Because of that, new measures are being instituted, and restaurants see their entire customer base disappear. The way that Norwegian politicians are handling this disease, the crisis will go on for many years. Norway leaped off the cliff and is still falling.
https://www.nrk.no/vestland/utelivet...-av-1.15152546
https://www.nrk.no/vestland/utelivet...-av-1.15152546
Sep 9, 2020, 2:52 am
#1097
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There's an article in SVD which is entitled, "Revenge: Today, everybody follow's Sweden's strategy." It's locked so I can only see the first few lines, but the Norwegian Dagbladet is quoting from the article under the headline "Everybody's doing like Sweden."
In the article, there are several international experts that claim that most European countries now follow the Swedish model. One of them is epidemiology professor Antoine Flauhalt from the University of Geneva: "Today, more or less all countries in Europe follow the method from the Swedish model, but nobody wants to admit it."
https://www.svd.se/revanschen--idag-...riges-strategi
https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/all...erige/72819297
In the article, there are several international experts that claim that most European countries now follow the Swedish model. One of them is epidemiology professor Antoine Flauhalt from the University of Geneva: "Today, more or less all countries in Europe follow the method from the Swedish model, but nobody wants to admit it."
https://www.svd.se/revanschen--idag-...riges-strategi
https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/all...erige/72819297
I did kind of expect that once countries could start to manage a reasonably open society and still keep the epidemic under reasonable control it would be labelled as "following the Swedish model". But no one expected a lockdown to be an approach that should last until the vaccine or full treatment was available. It was always supposed to be a temporary measure, that would gradually move towards an open society as the situation allowed. So you could maybe say that they are following the good parts of the Swedish model now, without taking the initial bad impacts. Best of both worlds?
At least some countries avoided Sweden style fatality rates in the first phase with their lockdown, some admittedly did not. It will be quite interesting to understand why France and Spain had so much worse results than Germany while all being in a lockdown. It will be interesting to understand why Spain with such a high initial infection number can have as high a spike as they do now, as that speaks strongly against herd immunity. There are a lot of interesting points, and some that may never fully be understood. But as a key point, hopefully Europe will generally learn, and actually be prepared to handle the next pandemic, as they were shown to be woefully unprepared for this one. While Korea has seen their numbers creep up, and clusters reappear, and their government blowing alarm after alarm, they are still in a much better position than most, if not all European countries, as they were prepared and took early action.
Sep 9, 2020, 4:13 am
#1098
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Sweden's infection rate is continuing its steep decline. Week 36 saw 126,000 people being tested, with only 1.2% positive tests.
Also, the number of people in intensive care in Sweden is now back to normal levels.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/i...te-tio-dagarna
Could you tell me where you got the information that Sweden reports per samples and not per person?
In the above article, Johan Carlson said, "Under vecka 36 hade vi närmare 126 000 testade, och av dem var ändå bara 1,2 procent positiva." "Testade" means people that were tested. If he would've been talking about samples, he would've used the word "tester."
Also, the number of people in intensive care in Sweden is now back to normal levels.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/i...te-tio-dagarna
Could you tell me where you got the information that Sweden reports per samples and not per person?
In the above article, Johan Carlson said, "Under vecka 36 hade vi närmare 126 000 testade, och av dem var ändå bara 1,2 procent positiva." "Testade" means people that were tested. If he would've been talking about samples, he would've used the word "tester."
Source #2: Sweden Public Health Agency
Short description: The number of samples tested.
Latest estimate: 1.78 daily tests per thousand people (as of 6 September 2020).
Detailed description:
Since July 2020, the Public Health Agency has replaced its previous weekly updates of the number of people tested with the weekly count of samples tested. This data does not allow us to publish any cumulative total, since no data is available on how many samples had been tested prior to the first week of reporting. However, we integrate this data into our “daily tests” time series by dividing each weekly total by 7, thereby estimating the average daily number of samples tested.
Short description: The number of samples tested.
Latest estimate: 1.78 daily tests per thousand people (as of 6 September 2020).
Detailed description:
Since July 2020, the Public Health Agency has replaced its previous weekly updates of the number of people tested with the weekly count of samples tested. This data does not allow us to publish any cumulative total, since no data is available on how many samples had been tested prior to the first week of reporting. However, we integrate this data into our “daily tests” time series by dividing each weekly total by 7, thereby estimating the average daily number of samples tested.
Sep 9, 2020, 9:46 am
#1099
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I disagree. No European country follows Sweden. In Sweden we don't wear masks. Germany, France - mask wearing on public transport, in schools, now even outside in some cities etc.
Sweden: 500 people in a gathering, UK is back to 30 imho etc.
Distance in Sweden: 1m, in other countries: > 1.5m- 2m.
Cannot see how EU countries follow the Swedish model.
Sweden: 500 people in a gathering, UK is back to 30 imho etc.
Distance in Sweden: 1m, in other countries: > 1.5m- 2m.
Cannot see how EU countries follow the Swedish model.
Sep 10, 2020, 12:04 am
#1100
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Sweden's cases aren't dropping massively against all predictions. If anything it was expected with some that Swedish summer habits would mean a tremendous slowdown in spread and deliver its part until well after schools and public transport started getting packed to the brim again post-summer. -
The Sweden Question: Has Controversial Response Led to T-cell Mediated Immunity?
- as cases of COVID-19 rise across the globe in many countries with strict physical distancing measures, mandatory community mask use or widespread voluntary mask use, and that seemed to have flattened the curve, questions have been raised about how to deal with the reality of waning social will for March/April level restrictions on movement and activity.
Early in the pandemic, a bevy of modeling studies predicted dire consequences for Sweden based on their maverick coronavirus response, which relied on citizens making voluntary decisions about their activities. Many of those predictions, particularly surrounding ICU overwhelm, have not come to pass. Sweden's largest daily paper, Dagens Nyheter, cited modeling which applied the Imperial College London model to Sweden. "Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July,” the authors wrote.
Today, many Swedes walk around in public without a mask, travel across regions, and partake in normal life. Despite a high initial surge of mortality, annual excess deaths are on par with yearly trends for the country. The country has seen almost 90,000 fewer deaths than the widely shared preprint predicted. -
- as cases of COVID-19 rise across the globe in many countries with strict physical distancing measures, mandatory community mask use or widespread voluntary mask use, and that seemed to have flattened the curve, questions have been raised about how to deal with the reality of waning social will for March/April level restrictions on movement and activity.
Early in the pandemic, a bevy of modeling studies predicted dire consequences for Sweden based on their maverick coronavirus response, which relied on citizens making voluntary decisions about their activities. Many of those predictions, particularly surrounding ICU overwhelm, have not come to pass. Sweden's largest daily paper, Dagens Nyheter, cited modeling which applied the Imperial College London model to Sweden. "Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July,” the authors wrote.
Today, many Swedes walk around in public without a mask, travel across regions, and partake in normal life. Despite a high initial surge of mortality, annual excess deaths are on par with yearly trends for the country. The country has seen almost 90,000 fewer deaths than the widely shared preprint predicted. -
- Sweden is a bad example of how to "protect" those at high risk of the worst harm from being hit by this virus, and it still is. And if Sweden is considered by some to be a good example of that, then note that it already came at and charged an awfully worse price at the worst time of this year for it than was the case for its Scandinavian neighbors -- when looking at the damage done in terms of the lives, physical health and economy. Of course if the point is to drive down the health care costs over the longer term that are attributable to the most expensive people in the health care and other parts of the welfare system during the final years of life, then letting more die sooner with this virus may turn out to be a money saver for the insuring parties. But any hypothetical money saved by the Swedish insuring parties (direct or otherwise) from expediting mortality by way of relative neglect (via care rationing) won't result in the more profitable insured parties getting a financial break from these excessive deaths with the virus anytime soon (if ever).
Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ
- Even if you’re careful to compare the same type of fatality rate across countries, it’s easy to see how testing more, or fewer, people would change the results. In fact, the lack of widespread, systematic testing in most countries is the main source of discrepancies in death rates internationally, says Dietrich Rothenbacher, director of the Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry at the University of Ulm in Germany.
As a result, the current figures are “not at all” directly comparable between countries, he says. This is because, to get an accurate figure across a population, it is necessary to test not just symptomatic cases, but asymptomatic people too. Having that data would give an accurate picture of how the pandemic is affecting whole populations, not just the sick. “Currently we have a huge bias in the numbers coming from different countries – therefore the data are not directly comparable,” he says. “What we need to really have valid and comparable numbers would be a defined and systematic way to choose a representative sampling frame.” -
- Even if you’re careful to compare the same type of fatality rate across countries, it’s easy to see how testing more, or fewer, people would change the results. In fact, the lack of widespread, systematic testing in most countries is the main source of discrepancies in death rates internationally, says Dietrich Rothenbacher, director of the Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry at the University of Ulm in Germany.
As a result, the current figures are “not at all” directly comparable between countries, he says. This is because, to get an accurate figure across a population, it is necessary to test not just symptomatic cases, but asymptomatic people too. Having that data would give an accurate picture of how the pandemic is affecting whole populations, not just the sick. “Currently we have a huge bias in the numbers coming from different countries – therefore the data are not directly comparable,” he says. “What we need to really have valid and comparable numbers would be a defined and systematic way to choose a representative sampling frame.” -
The idea that herd immunity for this novel coronavirus was inevitable means nothing, as a lot of things that are inevitable don't put a stop to adverse developments in the interim. And it's still not clear for how long or how strongly any "natural" or artificially-enabled "immunity" lasts.
Previous generations endured far worse as their communities acquired the immunities that enabled rebuilding and prosperity. If the bioevolutionary path to civilization means nothing, then why is everything we know and have not a nothing, despite the diseased past which brought everyone here?
Personally, I am glad that beneficial population developments did mean enough for us to arrive in this forum and argue the effects
Last edited by FlitBen; Sep 10, 2020 at 6:06 am
Sep 10, 2020, 12:56 am
#1101
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When you click on the link for FHM -- https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...-for-covid-19/ -- it's quite clear indeed that the number reported is for tests and not for people. They report 126,219 tests being done in week 36.
But compare that to what Carlson said in the SVT link that I provided. He said: "During week 36, we had closer to 126,000 tested."
FHM says that they carried out 126,219 tests, and Carlson said that there were a little bit less than 126,000 people. So, while it is correct to say that some people are tested twice, it is also correct to say that we're talking about a very tiny number of people, maybe 300-400 out of 126,000. The vast majority of people are tested only once. The small number of double tests don't change the trend at all.
Sep 10, 2020, 3:26 am
#1102
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I know at least a half-dozen people in Sweden who have been tested for this virus at least 5 times. Some of these are people who have been tested in Sweden and in Denmark. Could make for quite an amusing situation to be a case in two countries at the same time, but there are probably fewer of those than there are individuals who have had 2-3 tests for this virus in Sweden within any given week. But the vast majority are almost certainly not getting more than one test in any given week -- if they have gotten even more than one test at all this year.
I am probably no less up-to-date with the news in Sweden than just about anyone and everyone here who isn't currently in Sweden like myself. The news won't change that deaths are deaths with this virus across the Scandinavian region; nor will relative differences in testing pools across the big 3 Scandinavian countries change the numbers for those who died with this virus in the peak quarter for this virus hit and divergence in approaches immediately across the Swedish borders.
The problems with the Swedish response to this pandemic became clear for the world to see -- to those free of blinders -- with what happened in the peak damage period of the 2nd quarter and seeing how Sweden performed materially worse than its Scandinavian neighbors during what was also the worst period for them with this virus to date.
Using off-peak periods for the virus spread in Sweden isn't much of an objective basis to take Sweden as an example of "beneficial population development" when it comes to this novel coronavirus spread. During off-peak periods for the virus spread in any given place, even a do-nothing, failed state can be proclaimed by some to be a "good example" in how to respond to the virus ..... up to and until the failed state gets hit hard by virus spread and the related damage to lives, health and the rest during the peak hit period becomes clear for the world to see by those who care to see without blinders.
From today, the Swedish foreign ministry has given an ok in ways to non-essential trips to Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland and the Vatican.
But for the other EEA countries of Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the UK, the Swedish foreign ministry advice was extended to be applicable until September 23rd.
And for now still, the Swedish foreign ministry advice against Swedes taking non-essential trips to countries outside the EEA/EU/Schengen area remains in place until November 15th.
I am probably no less up-to-date with the news in Sweden than just about anyone and everyone here who isn't currently in Sweden like myself. The news won't change that deaths are deaths with this virus across the Scandinavian region; nor will relative differences in testing pools across the big 3 Scandinavian countries change the numbers for those who died with this virus in the peak quarter for this virus hit and divergence in approaches immediately across the Swedish borders.
The problems with the Swedish response to this pandemic became clear for the world to see -- to those free of blinders -- with what happened in the peak damage period of the 2nd quarter and seeing how Sweden performed materially worse than its Scandinavian neighbors during what was also the worst period for them with this virus to date.
Using off-peak periods for the virus spread in Sweden isn't much of an objective basis to take Sweden as an example of "beneficial population development" when it comes to this novel coronavirus spread. During off-peak periods for the virus spread in any given place, even a do-nothing, failed state can be proclaimed by some to be a "good example" in how to respond to the virus ..... up to and until the failed state gets hit hard by virus spread and the related damage to lives, health and the rest during the peak hit period becomes clear for the world to see by those who care to see without blinders.
From today, the Swedish foreign ministry has given an ok in ways to non-essential trips to Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland and the Vatican.
But for the other EEA countries of Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the UK, the Swedish foreign ministry advice was extended to be applicable until September 23rd.
And for now still, the Swedish foreign ministry advice against Swedes taking non-essential trips to countries outside the EEA/EU/Schengen area remains in place until November 15th.
Last edited by GUWonder; Sep 10, 2020 at 4:05 am
Sep 10, 2020, 5:56 am
#1103
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Some talk making the rounds that only 2% of Swedes spent money to take a trip outside of Sweden this summer and that something around 60% of Swedes didn't spend money to go away more than 2 hours away at all on vacation this summer. I didn't catch the source of the numbers.
3rd quarter covers what is traditionally the peak vacation spend period for Swedes.
3rd quarter covers what is traditionally the peak vacation spend period for Swedes.
Sep 11, 2020, 6:19 am
#1104
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Norway's infection rates are increasing, and nationally, Norway now has more infected people than Sweden has. Bergen is one of those places with a local outbreak. Because of that, new measures are being instituted, and restaurants see their entire customer base disappear. The way that Norwegian politicians are handling this disease, the crisis will go on for many years. Norway leaped off the cliff and is still falling.
https://www.nrk.no/vestland/utelivet...-av-1.15152546
https://www.nrk.no/vestland/utelivet...-av-1.15152546
Sep 11, 2020, 6:24 am
#1105
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Sep 12, 2020, 12:23 am
#1107
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That’s the start of the march where the divergence between the Swedish path and Norwegian path meant the Swedish state was marching its “expensive”, most vulnerable people to a cliff from where they would die sooner and in much worse circumstances than their otherwise near-equivalent populations in Norway. Maybe Norway just isn’t as miserly as Sweden because Norway feels flush with wealth? Maybe all those Norwegian mountain walks taught the Norwegians in Norway how to better avoid harmful cliffs?
The Swedish response to help Swedish businesses impacted negatively by the coronavirus situation was also extremely miserly, and it reminded me of the kind of assistance that I’d expect to see from much poorer countries than Sweden. Not that this surprises me given this is the country where so many people default to drying laundry on the cheap despite the time/labor involved to avoid using electrically-powered dryers/drying cabinets/drying rooms. Sure, it’s better for the outdoor environment, but then again fewer people and shorter human lifespans could also be said to be better for saving the environment.
Tegnell, the Swedish environmentalist?
The Swedish response to help Swedish businesses impacted negatively by the coronavirus situation was also extremely miserly, and it reminded me of the kind of assistance that I’d expect to see from much poorer countries than Sweden. Not that this surprises me given this is the country where so many people default to drying laundry on the cheap despite the time/labor involved to avoid using electrically-powered dryers/drying cabinets/drying rooms. Sure, it’s better for the outdoor environment, but then again fewer people and shorter human lifespans could also be said to be better for saving the environment.
Tegnell, the Swedish environmentalist?
Last edited by GUWonder; Sep 12, 2020 at 12:32 am
Sep 12, 2020, 2:23 am
#1108
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I'll tell you some more about the Norwegian cliff.
On 12 March 2020, the Norwegian government decided to institute radical measures to stop the spread of the virus so that the hospitals wouldn't be overrun. "Flattening the curve" is what they called it. The problem was that the measures they took were so radical that the curve was flattened far more than it needed to be. And now, the politicians of Norway (both national and local) have become accustomed to this extremely flat curve, so every time there's a tiny outbreak anywhere, they bring the big guns out and start with new measures. My guess is that the "pandemic" will go on for another 10 years in Norway until it's all over because of the extreme flattening policy that they're following.
In the meantime, large segments of the population have grown really tired of all measures. All kinds of people are flouting the rules the whole time. The police is extremely busy trying to put a stop to all kinds of private parties. Yesterday, the police broke up a party of 200 people that had gone on for days. A couple of weeks ago, 200 young people had a cave party, where they believed that the police wouldn't find them, where lots of people were posioned by CO.
At the same time, business are also going bankrupt. The hotel and restaurant industry believe that this winter will be really bloody, because no companies want to arrange the traditional Christmas table dinner. There will be lots of bankruptcies in Norway over the coming 12 months.
I believe that this winter will see a real spike in cases in Norway, simply because the population is getting tired of living this abnormal life. So, the virus will spread, the police will be busy, there will be more clashes between the authorities and the population, and businesses will go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the pandemic is over in Sweden. Over the summer, people in Sweden have been living more or less normal lives, and the infection rate is falling the whole time.
In 10 years from now, we'll know who made the right decision.
On 12 March 2020, the Norwegian government decided to institute radical measures to stop the spread of the virus so that the hospitals wouldn't be overrun. "Flattening the curve" is what they called it. The problem was that the measures they took were so radical that the curve was flattened far more than it needed to be. And now, the politicians of Norway (both national and local) have become accustomed to this extremely flat curve, so every time there's a tiny outbreak anywhere, they bring the big guns out and start with new measures. My guess is that the "pandemic" will go on for another 10 years in Norway until it's all over because of the extreme flattening policy that they're following.
In the meantime, large segments of the population have grown really tired of all measures. All kinds of people are flouting the rules the whole time. The police is extremely busy trying to put a stop to all kinds of private parties. Yesterday, the police broke up a party of 200 people that had gone on for days. A couple of weeks ago, 200 young people had a cave party, where they believed that the police wouldn't find them, where lots of people were posioned by CO.
At the same time, business are also going bankrupt. The hotel and restaurant industry believe that this winter will be really bloody, because no companies want to arrange the traditional Christmas table dinner. There will be lots of bankruptcies in Norway over the coming 12 months.
I believe that this winter will see a real spike in cases in Norway, simply because the population is getting tired of living this abnormal life. So, the virus will spread, the police will be busy, there will be more clashes between the authorities and the population, and businesses will go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the pandemic is over in Sweden. Over the summer, people in Sweden have been living more or less normal lives, and the infection rate is falling the whole time.
In 10 years from now, we'll know who made the right decision.
Sep 12, 2020, 3:20 am
#1109
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I'll tell you some more about the Norwegian cliff.
On 12 March 2020, the Norwegian government decided to institute radical measures to stop the spread of the virus so that the hospitals wouldn't be overrun. "Flattening the curve" is what they called it. The problem was that the measures they took were so radical that the curve was flattened far more than it needed to be. And now, the politicians of Norway (both national and local) have become accustomed to this extremely flat curve, so every time there's a tiny outbreak anywhere, they bring the big guns out and start with new measures. My guess is that the "pandemic" will go on for another 10 years in Norway until it's all over because of the extreme flattening policy that they're following.
In the meantime, large segments of the population have grown really tired of all measures. All kinds of people are flouting the rules the whole time. The police is extremely busy trying to put a stop to all kinds of private parties. Yesterday, the police broke up a party of 200 people that had gone on for days. A couple of weeks ago, 200 young people had a cave party, where they believed that the police wouldn't find them, where lots of people were posioned by CO.
At the same time, business are also going bankrupt. The hotel and restaurant industry believe that this winter will be really bloody, because no companies want to arrange the traditional Christmas table dinner. There will be lots of bankruptcies in Norway over the coming 12 months.
I believe that this winter will see a real spike in cases in Norway, simply because the population is getting tired of living this abnormal life. So, the virus will spread, the police will be busy, there will be more clashes between the authorities and the population, and businesses will go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the pandemic is over in Sweden. Over the summer, people in Sweden have been living more or less normal lives, and the infection rate is falling the whole time.
In 10 years from now, we'll know who made the right decision.
On 12 March 2020, the Norwegian government decided to institute radical measures to stop the spread of the virus so that the hospitals wouldn't be overrun. "Flattening the curve" is what they called it. The problem was that the measures they took were so radical that the curve was flattened far more than it needed to be. And now, the politicians of Norway (both national and local) have become accustomed to this extremely flat curve, so every time there's a tiny outbreak anywhere, they bring the big guns out and start with new measures. My guess is that the "pandemic" will go on for another 10 years in Norway until it's all over because of the extreme flattening policy that they're following.
In the meantime, large segments of the population have grown really tired of all measures. All kinds of people are flouting the rules the whole time. The police is extremely busy trying to put a stop to all kinds of private parties. Yesterday, the police broke up a party of 200 people that had gone on for days. A couple of weeks ago, 200 young people had a cave party, where they believed that the police wouldn't find them, where lots of people were posioned by CO.
At the same time, business are also going bankrupt. The hotel and restaurant industry believe that this winter will be really bloody, because no companies want to arrange the traditional Christmas table dinner. There will be lots of bankruptcies in Norway over the coming 12 months.
I believe that this winter will see a real spike in cases in Norway, simply because the population is getting tired of living this abnormal life. So, the virus will spread, the police will be busy, there will be more clashes between the authorities and the population, and businesses will go bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the pandemic is over in Sweden. Over the summer, people in Sweden have been living more or less normal lives, and the infection rate is falling the whole time.
In 10 years from now, we'll know who made the right decision.
The talk of a “curve flattening more than it needed to be” is something that could have and would have been said by some for any reduction in virus spread taking place where a government did something rather than nothing, regardless of what that something was.
Sweden has businesses — even businesses that are about as local as they come — that will going bankrupt due to the coronavirus situation. Keep the eyes on the unemployment picture in the region as a window into future bankruptcies to come from this situation.
Sep 12, 2020, 4:43 am
#1110
Join Date: Sep 2015
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Posts: 4,754
- I am probably no less up-to-date with the news in Sweden than just about anyone and everyone here who isn't currently in Sweden like myself. The news won't change that deaths are deaths with this virus across the Scandinavian region; nor will relative differences in testing pools across the big 3 Scandinavian countries change the numbers for those who died with this virus in the peak quarter for this virus hit and divergence in approaches immediately across the Swedish borders.
The problems with the Swedish response to this pandemic became clear for the world to see -- to those free of blinders -- with what happened in the peak damage period of the 2nd quarter and seeing how Sweden performed materially worse than its Scandinavian neighbors during what was also the worst period for them with this virus to date.
Using off-peak periods for the virus spread in Sweden isn't much of an objective basis to take Sweden as an example of "beneficial population development" when it comes to this novel coronavirus spread. During off-peak periods for the virus spread in any given place, even a do-nothing, failed state can be proclaimed by some to be a "good example" in how to respond to the virus ..... up to and until the failed state gets hit hard by virus spread and the related damage to lives, health and the rest during the peak hit period becomes clear for the world to see by those who care to see without blinders. -
The problems with the Swedish response to this pandemic became clear for the world to see -- to those free of blinders -- with what happened in the peak damage period of the 2nd quarter and seeing how Sweden performed materially worse than its Scandinavian neighbors during what was also the worst period for them with this virus to date.
Using off-peak periods for the virus spread in Sweden isn't much of an objective basis to take Sweden as an example of "beneficial population development" when it comes to this novel coronavirus spread. During off-peak periods for the virus spread in any given place, even a do-nothing, failed state can be proclaimed by some to be a "good example" in how to respond to the virus ..... up to and until the failed state gets hit hard by virus spread and the related damage to lives, health and the rest during the peak hit period becomes clear for the world to see by those who care to see without blinders. -
ID experts have long realized that such narrow or premature contexts can be misleading and will advise accordingly.
The public health case against coronavirus lockdowns
- Most of the debate about lockdowns has focused on economic tradeoffs: We assume that lockdowns make COVID-19 less awful, and we assume they cause economic harms, and so we want to balance those. I'm not sure of either side of that equation. Countries without lockdowns like Sweden and the Netherlands are facing massive economic downturns, too. In a globalized society, you can't just turn a switch and turn your economy off and on. If other countries are in recession, you will be too. It's that simple. So I'm skeptical of the idea that not locking down will result in economics-as-usual. –
- I haven't followed Sweden's exact policies, and I don't know if their policies have been good or bad, but I don't see in the data any reason to think they are a miracle or a nightmare. Rather, Sweden seems to suggest that you can't avoid a recession by avoiding lockdown and also not locking down doesn't seem to lead to a very big spike in deaths vs. some plausible counterfactual.
But the "death rate" argument is ignorant and foolish. It is difficult to even get a reliable estimate of COVID-19 deaths, let alone a reliable estimate of total infections. Differential case fatality rates (CFRs) are more likely to stem from idiosyncrasies of the tested population or volatility related to low total outbreak size. Washington State has one of the higher CFRs in America, yet one of the more successfully contained outbreaks because the disease broke out in nursing homes, which made for relatively many deaths but not actually tons of contagion.
Anyone reasoning from CFRs in countries with very different testing regimes and total tests making up less than 0.5 percent of population is reasoning from complete ignorance. Someday, we will estimate infection fatality rates (IFRs) using excess mortality and serological studies. Until then, this is a policy-irrelevant variable. -
- Most of the debate about lockdowns has focused on economic tradeoffs: We assume that lockdowns make COVID-19 less awful, and we assume they cause economic harms, and so we want to balance those. I'm not sure of either side of that equation. Countries without lockdowns like Sweden and the Netherlands are facing massive economic downturns, too. In a globalized society, you can't just turn a switch and turn your economy off and on. If other countries are in recession, you will be too. It's that simple. So I'm skeptical of the idea that not locking down will result in economics-as-usual. –
- I haven't followed Sweden's exact policies, and I don't know if their policies have been good or bad, but I don't see in the data any reason to think they are a miracle or a nightmare. Rather, Sweden seems to suggest that you can't avoid a recession by avoiding lockdown and also not locking down doesn't seem to lead to a very big spike in deaths vs. some plausible counterfactual.
But the "death rate" argument is ignorant and foolish. It is difficult to even get a reliable estimate of COVID-19 deaths, let alone a reliable estimate of total infections. Differential case fatality rates (CFRs) are more likely to stem from idiosyncrasies of the tested population or volatility related to low total outbreak size. Washington State has one of the higher CFRs in America, yet one of the more successfully contained outbreaks because the disease broke out in nursing homes, which made for relatively many deaths but not actually tons of contagion.
Anyone reasoning from CFRs in countries with very different testing regimes and total tests making up less than 0.5 percent of population is reasoning from complete ignorance. Someday, we will estimate infection fatality rates (IFRs) using excess mortality and serological studies. Until then, this is a policy-irrelevant variable. -
To repeat, excess deaths and quality-of-life impacts have yet to be observed and analyzed in full. Diagnostic and survey testing levels may be suspect, but increasing business and household confidence along with school attendance are timely indicators. Sweden is recovering its balance as much as it can in a disrupted global economy, pending any big hits in the fall.
Researchers and public health officials have been adapting their views to keep up with the pandemic's effects. You would do well to follow.
Last edited by FlitBen; Sep 12, 2020 at 12:32 pm