GUWonder

Take it as an indication that Tegnell is concerned that Stockholm may again put in jeopardy the narrative that all was and remains well with Sweden's coronavirus response during this pandemic and that the situation in Sweden may again challenge the questionable herd immunity insinuations upon which Tegnell & Co have been relying upon in ways. It seems that in some ways Swedish authorities are so anxious about this virus in Sweden that even Tegnell has had to split hairs and come out saying something akin to "we [in Sweden] are slowly but surely going in the wrong direction".

Don't be surprised if the targeted lockdowns in Sweden turn out to be another case of treating the economic "haves" differently than the economic "have less/nots". I'm seeing some crazy home price increases in some parts of Sweden during this current (3rd) quarter, and I'm sure at least some of that has to do with wanting to be in areas that may seem "safer" from this virus than in the most crowded parts of Sweden. That's one way to reduce the chance of being hit by an uncomfortable targeted lockdown in Sweden.

A de facto targeted lockdown approach (as with that seen in the US) "works" differently in ways that a comprehensive -- and also time-limited -- lockdown.

nacho

I thought the government thinks that Stockholm has reached herd immunity......

Regarding house prices - I think part of the reason for the increase is what you mentioned, but the ultra low interest rate also plays a big part of increase demand too.

GUWonder

Tegnell -- much like each of the Dr dudes currently in the US Senate -- has repeatedly been touting herd immunity in Sweden in ways. Apparently, Tegnell seems to be ahead of his fans in Washington (DC) in having to not only deal with a practical challenge to the Swedish herd immunity narrative but also in having to get in some verbal insurance for PR purposes in case the feces hits the fan with a lot more Swedish deaths with Covid-19 in the months ahead.

Residential mortgage interest rates are ultra-low in Sweden, but they aren't at nominally negative interest rates. These nominal interest rates were very low even before the 2nd quarter. Swedish household incomes aren't much higher now than they were in and before the 1st and 2nd quarter of this year; if anything, I suspect Swedish earned income is lower now than it was during the 2019 comparable periods. I don't recall anything about Swedish residential mortgage lending standards having been relaxed in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of this year, but I do recall that the Swedish central bank is sort of covering up the very recent findings of a consultancy that was brought in to examine risk issues in Sweden arising from all the lending activity of relevance. I've seen a lot of redacted documents in my time, but this kind of thing in "transparent" Sweden really takes the cake for what is a pie in the face to the public.

I think what we may be seeing with the parts of the Swedish housing market that have had skyrocketing home prices within the 2nd and 3rd quarter is something that is a product of the stock market rallies (and what is causing that) and how that increases assets on hand to leverage for residential real estate acquisition. It also tells a story of who is driving the price increases and where those increases are taking place.

RedChili

I have to correct myself. I don't remember where I saw the number 2.2%, but I believe it was in an SVT article. FHM released their weekly report two days ago, and they report 1.6% positive tests in week 38. The number of positive tests for the past 12 weeks have been:
27 7.0%
28 3.0%
29 2.6%
30 2.5%
31 3.2%
32 3.9%
33 3.8%
34 2.7%
35 1.6%
36 1.2%
37 1.2%
38 1.6%

When I do the maths myself, I get the following numbers for the past four weeks:
35 1.556%
36 1.166%
37 1.178%
38 1.556%

GUWonder

How can this pandemic be over in Sweden when all three conditions are currently a given: virus strain mutations may be showing increased power of contagion in some parts of the world; not even a quarter of the population in the worst hit neighborhoods of Stockholm has been hit by this virus; and 8-9 out of 10 Swedes nationally probably still have not been hit by this virus?

A testing positive rate being low at this time shouldn't be shocking. It's when testing positive rates are 5+% that it would tend to be far more concerning. Sweden can still get there.

fransknorge

Psychological impact of COVID-19 in the Swedish population: Depression, anxiety, and insomnia and their associations to risk and vulnerability factors

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7503043/

GUWonder

The following pre-Covid-19 situation seems interesting given intra-household transmission is a key vector of this virus spreading in communities and Sweden went into the pandemic with better conditions as per the indicators below:

1. More than 50% of Swedish households had just one inhabitant.

2. Approximately a third of Sweden's elderly population lived alone (while the figure in say Greece and Spain is approximately a fifth of their elderly populations).

3. Beside having one of the lowest proportions of multi-generational households in Europe, Sweden also had one of the smallest average household sizes, with household size in Sweden being lower than in all its neighboring countries.

The coronavirus situation in Sweden has probably changed the above pattern at least a bit at the margins due to the economic situation (and other factors) related to the pandemic in Sweden, with the more economically vulnerable sections of the Swedish public shifting lifestyle patterns more than those in more economically secure and cushy conditions.

In news from yesterday:

. Norway's PM has directly informed Sweden's PM that Norway will continue to stick with its approach to Covid-19 cross-border travel restrictions and not cut Sweden new favors in that regard despite what Norwegian restrictions mean to Sweden's economic players near the Norwegian-Swedish border.

. Swedish case surges in various parts of the country seem to be tied to student parties.

vanillabean

I don’t have full access to this article now, but think it was the one which mentioned that the reason Sweden is doing well now is because the socially active and the super spreaders are no longer infecting others.

https://politiken.dk/indland/art7929...l-tyder-pĺ-det

At the same time, the Danes, more so than the Swedes, are worried about the state of the democracy.

https://www.altinget.dk/sundhed/arti...end-svenskerne

I briefly considered staying at a Copenhagen Křdbyen hotel, but then reality kicked in.

"In Křdbyen, there has been a tendency for many people to congregate in the outdoor areas, and as the alcohol per mille has increased, responsibility has decreased."

https://politi.dk/koebenhavns-politi...yen/2020/09/17

Question that I don’t know where to ask. It is written that immediate family of non-resident Danish nationals must travel together to be allowed to enter Denmark. Isn’t it enough that they exit passport control together?

CPH-Flyer

The lines quoted about Křdbyen is the reason why the police introduced restrictions for people being in Křdbyen, meaning that once the bars close at 22:00 people are no longer allowed to congregate in the area. So describing a past behaviour leading to the restrictions. So for now, you should be safe from that. Unless your concern is to not be able to hang out outdoors after hours.

Technically, it is probably enough to travel together until having passed passport control. There is as far as I know no monitoring of movements within Denmark, so how would they know if person A is in Skřrping and person B is in Tappernřje?

vanillabean

Incidently, I suspect I’ll be by both within days on my next trip. But what if my wife visits Chicago to see her family and continues on to Kastrup, while I take the nonstop from home and meet up with her at airside to exit passport control together?

CPH-Flyer

Ahhh it is the before arrival at passport control that is the issue. As a non resident Dane that recently arrived in Copenhagen, I was not asked where I arrived from or on what flight. But I was just me, not being accompanied by anyone. Though I would say that the letter of the law is that you have to enter together, how you arrive at the point of arrival should be of less concern. Though I'd worry about the risk of delays and misconnects leading to a big discrepancy in arrival time.

fransknorge

This has been debunked many times by actual data: the seroprevalence in Sweden and Stockholm in particular is not even 25% of what is needed to reach herd immunity: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...672-X/fulltext

GUWonder

The issues are as follows:

1) Will the airline transport you when you are not on the same flight taking you into the Schengen area/CPH?
2) Will she be waiting or wanting to wait at CPH entry passport control for you if schedules don't align as anticipated, and what happens if she is not able to be there when you arrive?

You're risking being denied travel by the airline even if you were to otherwise arrive at CPH entry passport control at close to the same time and go through together.

If I were in your situation, I would have the plans changed at least somewhat: try to fly to another EU/EEA country/airport where you would be admissible independent of arriving together; or, better yet, be booked to fly together on the same flight(s) exiting the US.

GUWonder

It's at least theoretically possible for there not to be herd immunity in Sweden -- and Sweden is far short of having herd immunity from exposure to this virus -- and yet for there to be yet enough immunity/cross-immunity among the segment of the population with the biggest social networks and highest frequency of widespread contacts within the country for it to mean that Covid-19 spread slowed down because that high risk spreader segment of the population already got hit by this virus and has developed antibodies for this virus or T-cell response due to cross-immunity related to other viruses.

In other words, the two things -- lack of herd immunity and super spreaders already having been hit -- are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

If you look at Swedish social networks, you may find what I do: there is a small but meaningful segment of Swedes who are the social butterflies of (and across) the country or parts of the country; there is a very large segment of quasi-hermits; and there is another large segment of those who only socialize in very limited social circles and are resistant to any social network expansion. This kind of social reality in Sweden has consequences for virus spread patterns in the country.

The joke is that Sweden is a very boring country because it's a very predictable kind of place. Having had more than my share of interesting times, I'll settle for boring. Unfortunately, the Covid-19 situation in Sweden has made Sweden a bit too interesting in ways already.

nacho

I think it's highly dependent on the check-in agent if they let her on - if she is travel on her own she might have a problem because as far as I know the spouse of Danish nationals have to travel with them: https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/DK-...quirements.htm