Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
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FlyerTalk members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our makeup as we are alike in our passion for frequent flyer programs. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights.
Our diversity demands that we respect each other. Due to the inherent constraints of the Internet, humor, sarcasm, language and slang can be easily misinterpreted - especially when crossing cultural boundaries.
When posting a message, pay extra care to how it might be interpreted. And when you come across a post that offends you, read it with an eye toward giving the poster the benefit of the doubt.
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
Apr 6, 2014, 8:00 pm
#1591
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 91
Something I read today struck me with the force of truth unlike anything else I've heard.
I can come up with any number of whys and whos, etc, but:
The theory that the plane was *headed to Australia*, possibly Perth, makes the most sense.
Again, why this was done and who was in control (both through directly flying it to the chance that an outside actor was forcing someone to fly a deviated route) could be explained by a number of things, but I'm somehow intuitively convinced that the destination was Australia.
Was the plane shot down by a government? Did something go wrong aboard the aircraft? Don't know, but makes more sense than fresh mangosteens out of season.
I can come up with any number of whys and whos, etc, but:
The theory that the plane was *headed to Australia*, possibly Perth, makes the most sense.
Again, why this was done and who was in control (both through directly flying it to the chance that an outside actor was forcing someone to fly a deviated route) could be explained by a number of things, but I'm somehow intuitively convinced that the destination was Australia.
Was the plane shot down by a government? Did something go wrong aboard the aircraft? Don't know, but makes more sense than fresh mangosteens out of season.
Apr 6, 2014, 8:39 pm
#1593
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Europe & Indonesia
Programs: BAEC Gold, LH SEN, EK ex-Gold, IHG Plat
Posts: 11,571
Apr 6, 2014, 8:44 pm
#1594
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 91
I agree that it's puzzling without a further hypothesis as to why they either didn't or could not have landed at Exmouth. Still, I don't think the south turn was an accident or an autopilot oddity; and I therefore conclude that whoever decided to make that turn wanted to head for Australia. Infinitely more plausible than suicidal pilot lets plane run out of fuel over random area of Indian Ocean.
Apr 6, 2014, 9:08 pm
#1595
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Between AUS, EWR, and YTO In a little twisty maze of airline seats, all alike.. but I wanna go home with the armadillo
Programs: CO, NW, & UA forum moderator emeritus
Posts: 35,432
I agree that it's puzzling without a further hypothesis as to why they either didn't or could not have landed at Exmouth. Still, I don't think the south turn was an accident or an autopilot oddity; and I therefore conclude that whoever decided to make that turn wanted to head for Australia. Infinitely more plausible than suicidal pilot lets plane run out of fuel over random area of Indian Ocean.
Last edited by cblaisd; Apr 6, 2014 at 9:26 pm Reason: Removed question-begging assertion that presumes facts not in evidence; sensitivity
Apr 7, 2014, 12:31 am
#1596
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: QFF
Posts: 5,304
If whoever was flying was so good as to know where radar sites were and their range, then they would have also known that the JORN array was directed towards the North East at the time due to the exercises going on.
Apr 7, 2014, 4:07 am
#1597
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 91
Interesting. The audible signal would be from the ELB - but there has been considerable discussion as to whether or not the plane had one, and even if so, if it would operate properly underwater.
You can't "hear" a pure 37.5 kHz signal like the ones emitted by the FDR and CVR - you can "see" it on audio spectral analysis, but 37.5 kHz is about 2x above the human sound limit.
You can't "hear" a pure 37.5 kHz signal like the ones emitted by the FDR and CVR - you can "see" it on audio spectral analysis, but 37.5 kHz is about 2x above the human sound limit.
Apr 7, 2014, 4:52 am
#1598
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
Interesting. The audible signal would be from the ELB - but there has been considerable discussion as to whether or not the plane had one, and even if so, if it would operate properly underwater.
You can't "hear" a pure 37.5 kHz signal like the ones emitted by the FDR and CVR - you can "see" it on audio spectral analysis, but 37.5 kHz is about 2x above the human sound limit.
You can't "hear" a pure 37.5 kHz signal like the ones emitted by the FDR and CVR - you can "see" it on audio spectral analysis, but 37.5 kHz is about 2x above the human sound limit.
Not trying to be picky, just trying to understand what is being said where
.In terms of how the detection works, does anyone actually listen or does it go through a Fourier transform type widget to get the frequency analysis and someone / something is looking for the characteristic peak at 37.5kHz?
Last edited by EsherFlyer; Apr 7, 2014 at 5:05 am
Apr 7, 2014, 5:13 am
#1599
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
In that case, JORN would be able to tell us exactly where the plane went down - but apparently that's not the case. What would be the explanation for that?
...ah, Himeno has answered that: "the JORN array was directed towards the North East at the time due to the exercises going on". What exercises were those?
Didn't have enough fuel - and must have known that.
...ah, Himeno has answered that: "the JORN array was directed towards the North East at the time due to the exercises going on". What exercises were those?
Didn't have enough fuel - and must have known that.
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Apr 7, 2014 at 5:26 am Reason: two consecutive posts
Apr 7, 2014, 6:02 am
#1600
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
Navy guy in the announcement said that the frequency is in the range of 33.3kHz, which he said is consistent with the 37.5kHz pinger going off frequency near end of life. And it seems to me that it will also provide a reason for thinking they've picked up both pingers because they are likely to have drifted to different frequencies and so can be distinguished from each other. They also said that the two hits were 2km apart, which they said can be due to the way sound travels underwater and doesn't necessarily mean the two things are really that far apart. (Easier to visualize that when you consider they're 4km down, so 2km laterally isn't really that far).
PS - strange that they drift that far, you'd think they would be crystal controlled - my $15 guitar tuner holds its frequency much better than that
Last edited by polarbreeze; Apr 7, 2014 at 6:50 am
Apr 7, 2014, 6:58 am
#1601
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
It's mostly waveforms and other graphics on computer screens - some shots of that in the TV coverage here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-0...signal/5372616
The screenshot linked from that page shows the frequency analysis of each ping a second apart (you can see it scrolling by in the video at 0m32s), with the intensity peak reaching into 'red' at a (presumably notable) frequency for each one.
I know its easy to second guess, but is a ping every 1s much more useful than one ever 2s or 3s? Wouldn't it last about twice as long then?
Last edited by EsherFlyer; Apr 7, 2014 at 9:18 am
Apr 7, 2014, 8:01 am
#1603
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SW London
Programs: BAEC Silver; Hilton Diamond;a miscellany of other hotel non-statuses
Posts: 3,607
.
Apr 7, 2014, 8:19 am
#1604
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: san antonio, texas
Programs: 3.2MM AA, 1.4MM UA,StwdLftPlt
Posts: 1,586
I noticed in the seafloor maps published of the eastern Indian Ocean off Perth there is a vast abyssal plain. Is that accurate or simply a reflection of inadequate mapping? I know that in the North Atlantic much of the more recent mapping efforts had origins in Cold War submarine warfare, transatlantic cable routes and other commercial initiatives. Seems to me that little economic motivation would exist to map the area compared to other regions of the world.
Salvaging this aircraft will be an enormous challenge.
Salvaging this aircraft will be an enormous challenge.
Apr 7, 2014, 9:07 am
#1605
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 80
When they spoke about this they said "shelf life" as having the impact on frequency - not referring to the 30 days operational battery life. Of course they might have got it wrong, lots of fog around all this.