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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

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MORE about the MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.

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3. Please do continue to be attentive to the sensibilities of the families of those on the flight. Think about if you were them what you would and would not want to see posted. Speculation about what happened is permissible; please, though, do not indulge in inflammatory or overly-lurid descriptions that could well be hurtful.

4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously, information that has been posted in the News thread wiki or FAQ, may be deleted.
E.g. the aircraft was vaporized.

In terms of housekeeping, posts may get moved from the "news" thread if and as needed, and posts that do not conform to these simple expectations, above, will be deleted.

Also note: this wiki is locked; changes can only be made by moderators.

Thank you.

Your MH370 Moderation Team
aBroadAbroad; cblaisd; JDiver; l'etoile; NewbieRunner; oliver2002; Prospero
and Community Director
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Old Nov 10, 05, 1:00 am
  #1  
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread

Technical note: The reason the opening post is so old is due to technical details related to making sure it is the first post in this thread no matter what may be moved to the thread.

NEW: BBC: Ten Theories of MH370's Disappearance

Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 21, 14 at 2:28 pm Reason: change thread title
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Old Mar 12, 14, 9:16 am
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Originally Posted by Fly-Swiss View Post
How about this, posted 2-3 pages before:
According to this, an oil rig worker, Mike McKay, saw a plane in flames off Vietnamese coast and reported it to authorities.

http://www.andrew-drummond.com/2014/...rted-seen.html
Who knows if it is true, but it seems more likely than the plane turning back over the Malay peninsula.

I could imagine a scenario like: flash fire in cockpit due to oxygen system, disables comms, plane begins a long descent (off course) to that general area, before fire finally reaches fuel tank, plane explodes.

It's not very likely, but perhaps more likely than any other scenario people have thought up.
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Old Mar 12, 14, 9:21 am
  #3  
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Originally Posted by andrewwm View Post

I could imagine a scenario like: flash fire in cockpit due to oxygen system, disables comms, plane begins a long descent (off course) to that general area, before fire finally reaches fuel tank, plane explodes.

It's not very likely, but perhaps more likely than any other scenario people have thought up.
So your theories backed with zero evidence of ANY kind, outrank the theories of those with at least something to back them up?

Interesting debating style!
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Old Mar 12, 14, 9:23 am
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Originally Posted by ozstamps View Post
So you theories backed with zero evidence of ANY kind, outrank the theories of those with at least something to back them up?

Interesting debating style!
Except the observation of the oil platform worker of a mid-air plane on fire along the general flight track of the flight, which is consistent with a plane failure scenario that would explain the total loss of comms.

Compare that to ghost radar signals way off course of the original flight track that would be inconsistent with any known failure scenario, yes I think it's more likely.

Am I 100% certain? No, of course not. We are already in the realm of highly implausible scenarios. But some conspiracy nonsense about being shot down by the Indo air force is much less likely than one of the biggest dangers of planes in cruise: fire.
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Old Mar 12, 14, 9:33 am
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Originally Posted by andrewwm View Post
Except the observation of the oil platform worker of a mid-air plane on fire along the general flight track of the flight, which is consistent with a plane failure scenario that would explain the total loss of comms.

Compare that to ghost radar signals way off course of the original flight track that would be inconsistent with any known failure scenario, yes I think it's more likely.

Am I 100% certain? No, of course not. We are already in the realm of highly implausible scenarios. But some conspiracy nonsense about being shot down by the Indo air force is much less likely than one of the biggest dangers of planes in cruise: fire.
Also to add to this point, there is precedence in flash fire in the cockpit on 777-200ER. Egyptair 667. So your scenario is definately more likely than it being shot down by Indo Military.
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Old Mar 12, 14, 9:40 am
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Originally Posted by andrewwm View Post
I could imagine a scenario like: flash fire in cockpit due to oxygen system, disables comms, plane begins a long descent (off course) to that general area, before fire finally reaches fuel tank, plane explodes.
I think it would require some unprecedented incineration to disable communications in a way that the crew cannot even send Pan Pan Pan or another distress signal. Not very likely. And the fact the communication was lost in the takeover period between two ATCs increases the chance the crew caused it (willingly or under pressure) rather than any kind of fire or catastrophic event.

Edit: and of course there should be quite a lot of debris in that area.
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Old Mar 12, 14, 10:14 am
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Originally Posted by beowl View Post
I think it would require some unprecedented incineration to disable communications in a way that the crew cannot even send Pan Pan Pan or another distress signal. Not very likely. And the fact the communication was lost in the takeover period between two ATCs increases the chance the crew caused it (willingly or under pressure) rather than any kind of fire or catastrophic event.

Edit: and of course there should be quite a lot of debris in that area.
I actually think it is one of the most plausible scenarios at this point. Think about a flash fire with rapid accelerant (e.g. O2) in the confined area of the flight deck. Then take a look at the photos from the Egypt Air cockpit and fuselage after the fire...and that was on the ground. This could have either incapacitated the pilots or driven them from the flight deck. Plane continues to fly until fire creates catastrophic incident.
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Old Mar 15, 14, 12:43 am
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How do you transit from an area in N. Thailand/Myanmar to Kazakhstan without going over China? I would think the Chinese have reasonably good radar coverage, especially anywhere near it's border with India.

EDIT: Perhaps the two very distant corridors are the result of two radar systems (Chinese and Australian, for example) picking up unidentified blips that might have been MH370.

Last edited by uszkanni; Mar 15, 14 at 12:51 am
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Old Mar 15, 14, 1:07 am
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Originally Posted by uszkanni View Post
How do you transit from an area in N. Thailand/Myanmar to Kazakhstan without going over China? I would think the Chinese have reasonably good radar coverage, especially anywhere near it's border with India.

EDIT: Perhaps the two very distant corridors are the result of two radar systems (Chinese and Australian, for example) picking up unidentified blips that might have been MH370.
The northwestern corridor he mentioned up-to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan goes over India /Pakistan as well. Looks like a sophisticated operator was commanding the flight by then. What are the chances of him shadowing SQ 68 which was on the same path at about the same time, going from SIN to BCN? We had RMAF not picking up MH370 while it crossed the Malaysian peninsula from east to west, could the Indians also be duped?

Last edited by SingaporeDon; Mar 15, 14 at 1:18 am
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Old Mar 15, 14, 1:12 am
  #10  
 
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Originally Posted by SingaporeDon View Post
What are the chances of him shadowing SQ 68 which was on the same path at about the same time, going from SIN to BCN? We had RMAF not picking up MH370 while it crossed the Malaysian peninsula from east to west, could the Indian AF also be duped?
Intriguing..its that or the Indian pilot's assertion that a fake flight plan may have been filed which would have given MH370 clearance over Indian airspace. Not sure how feasible either scenario is though
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Old Mar 15, 14, 1:40 am
  #11  
 
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Originally Posted by SingaporeDon View Post
The northwestern corridor he mentioned up-to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan goes over India /Pakistan as well. Looks like a sophisticated operator was commanding the flight by then. What are the chances of him shadowing SQ 68 which was on the same path at about the same time, going from SIN to BCN? We had RMAF not picking up MH370 while it crossed the Malaysian peninsula from east to west, could the Indians also be duped?
Air Marshal Vinod Patni, a retired Indian air force officer and a defense expert, said radar facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands area don't work around the clock, either. "These are generally switched on and off as and when required. A radar may be kept on for 24 hours on certain days. I won't say that the Indian radars are highly sophisticated in the region,'' he said.

Patni also said there are gaps in the coverage areas, including within the area being searched for the missing plane. He couldn't give an exact location for specific gaps, but said pilots are well aware of them.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...w/32015806.cms

From the same interview

In Thailand, secondary surveillance radar, which requires a signal from aircraft, runs 24 hours a day, but primary surveillance radar, which requires no signal at all, ordinarily shuts down at night, said a Royal Thai Air Force officer who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to talk to the media on the issue.
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Old Mar 16, 14, 5:25 am
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At todays Press conference Malaysia Airlines CEO said the cargo on the Boeing 777-200 ER plane was checked and scanned according to standard procedures. “We examined the cargo manifest, it contains no hazardous goods,”
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/mala....WvP8oMM7.dpuf

This is an interesting non-answer because the idea of explosion or fire - which could have been caused by hazardous cargo - has been already discounted.

The question still remains: was there anything in the cargo that might have caused someone to want to steal it or destroy it?
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Old Mar 16, 14, 6:14 am
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Originally Posted by MANman View Post
At todays Press conference Malaysia Airlines CEO said the cargo on the Boeing 777-200 ER plane was checked and scanned according to standard procedures. “We examined the cargo manifest, it contains no hazardous goods,”
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/mala....WvP8oMM7.dpuf

This is an interesting non-answer because the idea of explosion or fire - which could have been caused by hazardous cargo - has been already discounted.

The question still remains: was there anything in the cargo that might have caused someone to want to steal it or destroy it?
How far in advance are cargos typically booked onto flights? Would be difficult to plan something meticulously like this at the last minute, or if booked far ahead, could you be certain that the "right" pilot was rostered for it?
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Old Mar 16, 14, 6:33 am
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Originally Posted by DeanB View Post
How far in advance are cargos typically booked onto flights? Would be difficult to plan something meticulously like this at the last minute, or if booked far ahead, could you be certain that the "right" pilot was rostered for it?
Good point. Almost totally rules this idea out.
The only remote possibility is it is something that is shipped regularly.
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Old Mar 16, 14, 6:54 am
  #15  
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Originally Posted by MANman View Post
At todays Press conference Malaysia Airlines CEO said the cargo on the Boeing 777-200 ER plane was checked and scanned according to standard procedures. “We examined the cargo manifest, it contains no hazardous goods,”
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/mala....WvP8oMM7.dpuf
Except those aforementioned lithium batteries, I guess.
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