DLSuites

I never said AS is dominating B6 at every level. Please point out to where I said that. Your making things up and putting words into my mouth. I think that B6 is a really good airline but is very poorly run. I won't get into the specifics, but they are. If air travel is very slow to make a comeback, than all airlines will need to shrink; B6, AS, DL, UA, AA, etc. AS plus B6 would make a great merger. One has a very extensive west coat network and the other a very extensive east coast network. Combined, they could really do amazing things and become a legit big boy carrier. Those two airlines make the most sense to merge since there is very little overlap and they both have a lot in common. But, as far as names go, it would have to be AS.

Now, back to B6. TPHuang seems to think that B6 is impervious to COVID19 yet all other airlines will suffer miserably. I get it, he bleeds blue but it gets kind of sickening to read day in and day out. B6 has strengths and weaknesses. TPHaung needs to realize that it does in fact have weaknesses and its not all rosy and bloomy for B6.

DLSuites

The B6 will dominate the world mantra is really becoming quite annoying.

Nobody knows, not even TpHaung, how and which airlines will recover. It could easily turn out that the legacies and ULCC's recover faster than B6 leaving B6 at the bottom. No one knows, these are unprecedented times. There is nothing in any history book that is written that we can read that can possibly tell us which airline(s) will come out smelling like roses. But apparently TPHaung has 'read' this book or has written his own and has determined that B6 will 'dominate' at every turn and at every airport. Please. He brings this onto himself.

Often1

Both AS and B6 are in deep trouble going forward, although AS could always shrink back to a small regional carrier. B6 has already sought and been largely denied an exemption from the route / frequency requirements of its CARES Act bailout and that does not bode well.

Going forward, it will be the large corporate contracts which dominate as the recovery progresses. Neither B6 nor AS can break into that because they lack a (significant) international network. How long one or the other has been around is irrelevant.

The bottom line is that B6 is doing itself immeasurable harm by its fraudulent handling of refunds. US law is clear on this point and a passenger who requests a refund is due one. Entirely fair to offer a premium for a voucher/credit, but telling a passenger who is legally entitled to a refund that he may not have one is something that many people will not soon forgive. Especially those who do not read up on DOT Warning Letters, accepted a credit and find out later that had they pushed B6, they could have had a credit.

diburning

This is key. Alaska has the remote Alaska routes that they have a near-monopoly on. With the demise of Ravn Alaska, I'd imagine that Alaska Airlines could pick up those routes as well.

I would not be surprised if this was Ben Baldanza's idea. His philosophy when he was CEO of Spirit was that customer loyalty be damned, they'll come running back if you save them a couple bucks by undercutting the competition. I would also not be surprised if JetBlue becomes a ULCC where they nickel and dime for everything (which they're already halfway there anyway) after this.

tphuang

So if you have actually followed me around, then you will see the I have predicted FLL and MCO will both become much smaller after this, probably at least 25% smaller a year from now. And that SJU will become 1/4 to 1/3 smaller at that time too. And LA Basin will go from about 45 flights a day to more like 25 flights a day.

The reality is that coming out of this, everyone will be smaller and retreat to their core hubs. And for B6, that is NYC and BOS. This pandemic has opened up Boston for B6. AA is likely to cut back all on non-hub flying out of BOS. DL has now cut EDI/LGW/LIS/MAN/FCO for rest of the year already. And for may, they are down to just about 8 departures to ATL/DTW/MSP/JFK. BOS is their only hub that got this treatment. It would be hard for me to see them not shrink BOS significantly a year from now. There is going to be a lot of gates becoming available at both Terminal E and B at BOS that was not available prior to all of this. So will B6 have more gate space if they focus on BOS. It's obvious they will. And at NYC, AA will shrink significantly next year, which will open up space for DL, B6 and UA to expand. So if you look at things from the outside like I do, it's quite obvious they will be focusing their energy on BOS and NYC and cutting back on everything else.

This is not any different from what other carriers are doing. Everyone is shrinking and concentrating on their most profitable stations. The good times for airlines are over. Everyone will have huge debt (especially AA/UA) and need to retreat from heavy loss routes.

So of course there will be more monopolies for B6 out of this. Everyone will be getting more monopolies. Will they get more gates at LAX? Of course. They are exiting from LGB and they are going to move that operation to LAX once BOS/NYC growth is well on their way. They were already going to get total of 5 gates at LAX before this. With airlines shrinking back to their core hubs), LAX will no longer be as gate constrained as before.

Now as for your point that B6 will somehow go under. That's just completely ignorant of reality. They went into this with the 2nd best debt to equity ratio amongst all US airlines (WN being the best). They had over 1/3 of their fleet unencumbered + valuable slots at JFK, which allows them to borrow more money if needed. They had one of the better cash reserves when combined with their burn rate (with only WN/G4/NK doing better). The PSP formula actually did not screw them like it did to the ULCCs. The amount of money they got from gov't for payroll is likely to last past September. And if they are getting their burn rate to under $10 million by May (which looks like it's happening), they can last until next summer even if they don't get additional loans.

Could they go through a merger? Sure. WN, AS, NK and HA are all possibilities, but we are not at that point yet. Everyone is just trying to get through this period without having to file chapter 11. Or in AA's case, avoiding chapter 7.

B6's business model is a mix of VFR, domestic leisure, business travel and international leisure to Caribbean. The VFR stuff to Latin America will come back and not lose money before anything else. Domestic business, especially short haul stuff, is likely to come back before LH business. Domestic leisure to Florida will be weak, but better than international leisure. And leisure to Caribbean will come back before TATL/TPAC. The legacy carriers with a bunch of wide bodies parked and nowhere to fly to are going to have trouble for a few years.

tphuang

Unlikely, their goal is to be the dominant carrier in Boston. Which means they will most likely become more legacy like over time, but with lower cost. Things like mint are hugely profitable and no one in their right mind will take that away.

Everyone is cutting costs right now to save cash. And a lot of these cuts will take years to come back.

It looks like you didn't like my comments that things will get easier for JetBlue at Boston and NYC and decided to change that into "B6 will dominate the world" and "will dominate every airport". I have said in quite a few places that I believe WN, B6, G4 and AS are going to do the best coming out of this. It's clear that AA is really screwed at this point. Maybe you got overly offended by my comment that DL is in trouble. I'm not really sure. Looks like based on their recent earning call, they will find enough financing to avoid chapter 11.

But here is the thing. Just because B6 will do well in NYC/BOS and have a couple of new opportunities opening up, that doesn't mean DL won't have new opportunities also. Take it easy. Life is too hard to get offended by something anonymous armchair QBs like I say.

the phoenix

Back on topic, they cancelled my flight altogether. Doing it over chat was the best option IMHO.

B/c I had an expired TB credit which was a goodwill credit from a previous trip, they could not renew it. But since we were a party of 2, they offered to cancel and refund the one ticket and gave me the option to hold onto my other ticket along with the TB credit for another 2 months. Then then I can decide whether I just want the full refund and lose the TB at that time.

dblue

I had a May flight to Aruba booked via points. I canceled via chat and was refunded the CC fees and points credited back to my account. Original form on the website had suggested travel bank but chat worked it out quickly and efficiently.

DLSuites

The funny thing is, while you suggest that B6's flights are for the most part 15% full or greater, B6 comes out and announces that they want to make EVEN deeper cuts to major cities. Thats bad news. So, believe you or B6? Hmmm. I will believe B6. So, according to you, B6 is the only airline impervious to this and will bounce back the quickest AND buy up/lease gates at all the major, slot/gate constrained airports that the majors will flounder on. Seriously, I think you are very delusional. I appreciate your longing for everything B6 but you need to put things in realistic perspective. The last thing on the minds of the B6 execs is buying/leasing more gates when they cant even fill more than 5% of their own planes. Who's to say they are going to bounce back to EVEN need most of their OWN gates let alone those of the competitor. I think you have a lot of good things to say about the industry and all but you need to come back down to earth a bit with your 'blue is all' manta.

tphuang

I don't see where I stated that B6 flight are for the most part 15% full or greater. I don't have data for that. How would I know what their LF is. Earnings report is coming out. We will get a better idea. B6 is making deeper cuts to some large cities precisely because they are getting very low LF to those places. I don't necessarily agree with every city they picked, but that's what they picked. The reality is the less they fly to these cities, the less money they burn. All of these measures are to cut flying and ensuring longer term survival.

As for the second part, it seems like you are entirely mischaracterizing my point. Please point out to where I said they are impervious to this. I just said 4 of their focus cities are going to get hammered coming of this. If you don't think B6 execs are thinking about the future and where things might open up, you are sadly mistaken. They are not just planning to cut costs and getting additional financing, but also how the airline will emerge from this. That's what every airline is doing right now. Their immediate future is in Boston and NYC and that's where they will put most of their eggs.

All the recent actions show that:
AA is dramatically reducing NYC/LA presence
DL is dramatically reducing BOS/CVG/RDU while retaining their position in SEA/LAX/NYC
UA is cutting back on coastal hubs
WN becoming more of a hub/spoke airline
F9 dramatically changing business plan to be more like NK
B6 cutting back on everything not NYC/Bos

I don't really understand what is so controversial about these positions.

DLSuites

you clearly don't understand. A little assignment for you.....Go back and read what you post; go back several days, go back a week; a month..on this site and other websites. I think highly of your understanding of the nature of the aviation world but you clearly have a huge bias for JetBlue. So much in fact that it takes away from your overall ability and credibility as a trusted and knowledgeable source of information and facts.

One thing stands out, and this is just one example....Somehow, you think B6 is going to jump in and 'steal' gates and landing slots away from all other airlines at slot constrained and gate constrained airports because they will all be slow to recover except your beloved JetBlue. How in the world will that happen when JetBlue planes are just as adversely affected, if not more so, than that of the ULCC's and the legacies?

blueman2

Is B6 still offering the 20% bonus if we take the flight credits? Or did that stop after the April 3 DOT message?

tphuang

I've said in numerous places everyone is shrinking after this. I'v explained where everyone will retreat from and what kind of opportunities there will be available. every airline aside from maybe AA/UA will be in a position to exploit new opportunities. Feel free to find contradictions in what I've said in the past couple of weeks. It seems like you are following what I'm typing quite closely. If you are not happy with anything I posted, just quote me. Don't invent things that I didn't say like "JetBlue is having LF higher than 15%" or that "JetBlue will dominate the world".

For everyone out there, don't worry about JetBlue going bankrupt. They are in pretty good cash position right now. I still would get refund if I could though.

bk3day

Just called B6 and wanted to provide a data point on how both cancellations were handled...

PNR #1 JFK-PWM: Their offer to change flights was moot as their only option was +/- 24 hours and Maine still has a quarantine order. Given that the cancelled flight was purchased with long expired TB credit,initially I was told it would expire BUT PERHAPS, if a different dept granted an exception, I would be granted a 2 week grace to rebook.

I objected and pressed my case for a longer extension, given the cancellation was not my doing. Agent was polite but firm that policy was the TB funds had expired I would be lucky to get even a 2 week grace. Again, I pressed the case and she consulted that "other department". She came back and told me they agreed to extend my expired TB fare credit for 1 year. The taxes were refunded as a new TB credit, with a 2 yr expiration.

PNR #2 PWM-JFK: Agent had to again, consult that "other department", Similarly, they also granted a 1 year TB credit for that Blue Basic flight purcased with long-expired TB credits

NOTE: fwiw, this was an older regular fare (pre-Blu Basic) but fare type didn't seem to matter?

NEW QUESTION: In the past, when I called in and asked for assistance with expiring TB credit, the agent I spoke with always offered that 2 week grace to book a new ticket. I understand that was a courtesy but is it now standard practice for the agent to call another department for approval whereas in the past the front line agent was empowered to make the offer?

Thanks again!

Chuck2009x

I had a schedule change of 2+ hours occur and got a notice on 6/1. I called on 6/2 to cancel and request a refund. I was offered the 20% bonus if I took Travel Bank credits instead. I declined the credits. No pushback from the agent.

The refund was posted to my JetBlue credit card yesterday (6/5).