MW147

I received an email this morning from the HK Mega Show, which usually took place in October.

They think quarantine requirements are going to be lifted by November and they are scheduling a show for November 15-18. Does anyone think this is possible?

maalloc

There's a widespread expectation about this deadline that could allow HK Govt to do it while saving face.

Is it possible? for sure. It is certain? absolutely not. I'd never book a trip without accounting for at least 3-day Q before it's officially gazetted.

Gongzuokuang

I saw that too. I've also had HKTDC reach out about the Autumn Electronics show (in October). Really pushing to get attendees, offering airfare and hotels. I explained that they need to push Cathay Pacific to fix airfare and availability. Same goes for Comasia.

tentseller

This is Hong Kong we are talking about here:
Speculation
Betting
&
Hedge your bets

Visconti

Interesting.

Not that I know more than anyone else, but I've been betting that December is a possibility to, finally, enter the city absent of the more onerous restrictions and protocols. So, basically, I just booked a flight from Europe with a very long stopover (on a single CX PNR, of course) in HKG before returning to NA and can just reschedule the return entering the city, assuming it's possible. If not, then I could at least spend some time at the airport and peer out into the HK sky or something.

I adopted a similar strategy with France assuming they'd relax fully buy Aug/Sep, which they have. So, I'm hoping to get lucky here.

889

There's also the problem of hotels bailing out of the quarantine scheme. Three-day stays give more hassle than profit.

tauphi

They might also be bailing because there's simply no demand. Q occupancy is running at 50-60% at the moment.

A big chunk of the demand was the arrival of Chinese nationals on their way to China. But that's taken a hit recently due to the reduced capacity of travel from Hong Kong to China.

889

The Government effectively guarantees DQHs at least a 50 percent minimum occupancy. So if occupancy falls too low, the taxpayer will cover it. See Reply (3).

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...2012600274.htm

JNelson113

It would seem viable for HK to adopt Singapore's old model: test in advance of the flight. Quick test at the airport. Go to the hotel to await the results. Once the results arrive, free to travel about. Of course it's still overkill but would allow the HK government to still look like they are doing something.

travelinmanS

I don’t think it’s the HK government that’s calling the shots on these policies. These are all dealt with by a higher power.

percysmith

Well somewhat. HKSAR Government does not have to 100% comply with Mainland policy, but cannot deviate from it. Implications (my take)

"Summits"
Government's favoured course of action. Building Potemkin villages to fill up government press releases while doing nothing and introducing (in Tamar's view) no real risk. Anything that lets Government fill up press releases while doing nothing is good.
This must be a Covid version of Sir Humphrey Appleby incarnate where efficacy of government is not measured by what it achieves by in how much work it generates.

Mainland:
Now this one I think Government has given up. They know they can't actually do Zero here - the cost will simply be too high and we're still too connected with the world to hide (think about Shanghai and what a bad look it gave the CCP, even though they're actually behind the firewall) [question: how long can we stay outside the firewall?]. Government is restricted to making southbound travel as easy as possible, while doing their damndest to wrangle concessions from their bosses e.g. reverse quarantine or additional quota, with no expectation of no-quarantine travel until Mainland itself drops Zero. Meanwhile, Government has to pay at least lip service to suppressing the virus, never admitting they're living with Covid, and perform substantive actions from time to time to please the bosses.

Business travel:
Second in the pile just behind showcase summits - Government's going to strain every nerve to create carve outs. But whether those are attractive to any bona fide business traveller is up for debate.

Inbound tourism:
I haven't seen much progress here.
Allowing inbound tourism may be contrary to the suppressing the virus. Besides, who is Government likely to prioritise? A bunch of backpacking/value-extracting foreigners or a bunch of cashed-up Mainlanders?

Residents:
Absolute bottom of the pile.
Government does not rule by the will of the people (sorry to introduce politics but unfortunately quarantine is substantially a political discussion not a medical one), but by the will of the higher power.
Besides, outbound tourism costs GDP, so suppressing residents' ability to engage in anti-mercantilism is all gain for Government.
If they don't like it, they can leave. More room for Mainlanders.

Foreign residents? They can like it or lump it. No more bending backwards (as allowing them similar access to home leave like Singapore) to accommodate them - can be seen as scoring brownie points with higher power.
Who cares if they leave? Bring in more manpower from Mainland? Noone in Government bothers to care if HK loses its USP and becomes Yet Another Chinese City.

MW147

No way I will even make a reservation until I know the quarantine requirement is lifted. This would be a short trip (5-6 days), since we still can't go into China. I am not going to quarantine for something that short.

Just for the heck of it I looked at flights, United has their Newark-HK nonstop scheduled for that time period. I was surprised to see it.

I also looked at the Renaissance in Wanchai that is attached to the convention centre. No availability. Is it a quarantine hotel?

Even if this November does not work out, I am feeling fairly confident about April of 2023, which is when there are normally more shows in HK that I always attended. I still doubt I will be able to go to the Canton Fair in April, but who knows?

Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

889

BA is scheduling flights from the UK starting in December, according to The Standard.

JNelson113

All I want for Christmas is to return to Hong Kong. Maybe it will finally happen!

Visconti

Hear hear! A while ago, I booked a couple of flights from the EU to the US with long layovers in HKG, hoping that 1) I can enter the city and at least have dinner, or 2) reschedule the HKG to US portion for an extended stay.

Knock on wood, but the leading indicators are looking favorable!

PS - Christmas is the perfect time for HK especially the weather, in my view.