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-   -   Is this flight oversold? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta-air-lines-skymiles/60461-flight-oversold.html)

rwoman Oct 14, 2013 7:08 am


Originally Posted by injera (Post 21604390)
What about my flight leaving NYC that currently reads:
Delta 87 (to ATL) showing J2 C2 D0 I0 Z0 Y9 B0 M0 S0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 X0 V0 E0
Delta 1140 (ATL to MSY) showing F5 P5 A5 G1 Y5 B0 M0 S0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 X0 V0 E0

There is a 7pm non stop from LaGuardia to New Orleans with plenty of availability. Would I have any luck calling Delta and asking to be switched?? I'd like to think they'd want to do it since it would free up space on a potentially oversold flight, but I'm assuming they'll only do it with a hefty change fee.

Barring significant travel disruptions, DL 87 looks unlikely to oversell at Y9.

DL 1140 could, but with F5, there's space to bump people up from Y (or clear elites currently in Y), so an oversell is also not necessarily likely.

DL does not typically allow you to change flights for free because a flight looks full. Misconnects and no shows can free up availability on flights.

Also, co-terminal (eg. JFK-LGA-EWR) changes are only allowed for DMs IIRC.

MSPeconomist Oct 14, 2013 7:09 am

You would be asking for SDC = Same Day Confirmed. For nonelites, the fee is $50 but no other change fee or fare difference. This requires that your FARE CLASS be available on the new flight and that your fare rules allow the nonstop.

injera Oct 14, 2013 7:24 am

so given that I'm an FO in class V, i'm pretty much sol here, huh? oh well.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

MSPeconomist Oct 14, 2013 7:27 am


Originally Posted by injera (Post 21604444)
so given that I'm an FO in class V, i'm pretty much sol here, huh? oh well.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.

If the nonstop flight you want is wide open, V might be available. To pay $50 more for a nonstop at good times isn't a bad deal.

RFDMinnesota Oct 14, 2013 8:10 am


Originally Posted by DiverDave (Post 21604317)
Actually, your response is incorrect. They don't have to tell you the actual flight load, but they DO tell you if the flight is overbooked.

http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_...avel-faqs.html

How can I learn if a flight is overbooked?

Our reservations representatives and customer service agents will let you know if your flight is overbooked, on request.


So like I said, just call.

David

Then the semantics of oversold and overbooking as MSPeconomist pointed out comes into play.

Calling in is a waste of time any time outside of maybe a few hours, and even then I see it as a waste of time.

"Ask the airport staff" is all you'll get

Smyrnaflyer Oct 14, 2013 8:17 am


Originally Posted by HongKonger (Post 21603101)
Not only this but married segment logic may come into play. DL may be willing to sell Y9 on the segment if married to another segment such as an international one but fewer on that segment alone.

In my experience, it's the other way around. Sometimes married segments will have less availability than the individual segments. Also, whether "oversold" or "overbooked" mean the same thing or not, in my experience the GA distinguish between the two, and "oversold" means what everyone else says, there are more people checked in than there are seats. That, of course, can change if some of the checked in people don't show up or miss connections.

RobertS975 Oct 14, 2013 9:11 am

One thing for sure... if you cannot buy a ticket on a given flight at any fare, you can bet that it is oversold.

MSPeconomist Oct 14, 2013 9:13 am


Originally Posted by RobertS975 (Post 21604898)
One thing for sure... if you cannot buy a ticket on a given flight at any fare, you can bet that it is oversold.

Overbooked, not necessarily oversold.

777Pax Oct 14, 2013 11:13 am


Originally Posted by JulienMSP (Post 21602686)
Since everyone wanted to be snarky, here is what EF says:

F0 P0 A0 G0 Y9 B9 M2 S0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 X0 V0 E0

I too, am just now learning how to use EF; but I assume this means its not oversold but full.

Technically, a flight isn't "oversold" until more passengers check-in/show-up at the gate than the aircraft can accomodate. Until then, if it is booked over-capacity it is merely "over-booked".

That said, there is no way to tell from the inventory counts. If everything is showing zero, it's a strong possibility that is is overbooked, but even that isn't a given.

777Pax Oct 14, 2013 11:15 am


Originally Posted by CPMaverick (Post 21602811)
I don't know how you came up with your terminology definitions, but your opinion on what these terms mean is not standard. 'Oversold' and 'overbooked' mean exactly the same thing. A flight is 'oversold' or 'overbooked' as soon as more tickets sell than seats. Passengers that check-in or people at the gate have nothing to do with that, except their presence makes the airline actually have to DO something about the practice (deny boarding voluntarily or involuntarily).

No, any Airline Revenue Management person (and the DOT) would tell you that the two terms are indeed very different.

Here is what the DOT says about it:

Overbooking

Overbooking is not illegal, and most airlines overbook their scheduled flights to a certain extent in order to compensate for "no-shows." Passengers are sometimes left behind or "bumped" as a result. When an oversale occurs, the Department of Transportation (DOT) requires airlines to ask people who aren't in a hurry to give up their seats voluntarily, in exchange for compensation. Those passengers bumped against their will are, with a few exceptions, entitled to compensation.


As you can see, it isn't until passengers are left behind that the flight changes from overbooked to oversold.

sethb Oct 14, 2013 12:20 pm


Originally Posted by injera (Post 21603959)
If bumped, would I be able to get rebooked on a flight from LaGuardia or would I have to fly from Kennedy. Also, assuming the next flight is early the following morning, would Delta spring for our hotel or would we be on our own for that??

You get what you negotiate.

formeraa Oct 14, 2013 1:33 pm


Originally Posted by CPMaverick (Post 21602811)
I don't know how you came up with your terminology definitions, but your opinion on what these terms mean is not standard. 'Oversold' and 'overbooked' mean exactly the same thing. A flight is 'oversold' or 'overbooked' as soon as more tickets sell than seats. Passengers that check-in or people at the gate have nothing to do with that, except their presence makes the airline actually have to DO something about the practice (deny boarding voluntarily or involuntarily).

As someone who has a graduate degree in Transportation from MIT and has worked in the ariline industry, 777Pax knows EXACTLY what they are talking about. Oversold and overbooked are two totally different terms, as 777Pax pointed out. A flight is "overbooked" as soon as more tickets are sold than physical seats. A flight is "oversold" when more people show up at the gate with confirmed tickets that there are physical seats on the aircraft. When a flight is oversold, then there will be VDB or IDB.

mshachar Oct 14, 2013 2:20 pm


Originally Posted by us2 (Post 21603074)
The only way to know for sure is to have access to the internal Delta system. Revenue management will usually sell high fare tickets on a sold out flight under the theory that the marginal revenue from the higher fare ticket more than offsets the cost of a bump. That's where EF or dummy bookings can be a bit misleading.

Delta's data and algorithms for figuring out what to hold open and in which fare bucket are very good. The EF data here could also be indicative of a pattern for there to be last minute ticket purchases on this flight for which they can extract the higher fare even though the flight is not yet sold out. You can't know for sure unless you can access TravelNet, which gives out absolute numbers of unsold available seats.

Hope this helps.

+1

DiverDave Oct 14, 2013 3:06 pm


Originally Posted by 777Pax (Post 21605537)
No, any Airline Revenue Management person (and the DOT) would tell you that the two terms are indeed very different.

^^^ Definitions at the below link from Southwest.

http://www.southwest.com/html/genera...oking_faq.html

So my response that Delta will tell you if a flight is overbooked is not applicable to the OP asking how to find out if a flight is oversold. Oops. :)

David

dEagleS Oct 15, 2013 12:14 am

The fact that a booking requires a ticket to be issued (within a fairly short amount of time after booking), and hence requires some form of payment, when more tickets are issued for a particular flight it becomes oversold. Booking and ticketing (selling) are very specific terms.

o·ver·sell
ˌōvərˈsel/
verb
past tense: oversold; past participle: oversold
1.
sell more of (something) than exists or can be delivered.
"a surge in airlines overselling flights"

Whether or not the airline has to take action depends on many factors, including finally whether all passengers are checked-in, and at the gate at the prescribed time. If at that time #People > #Seats, VDB, or in the worst case, IDB is used.


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