Right, I know that. But that's not what the poster/a lot of other posters are saying. People often say that if a flight is not Y0 it's not overbooked. And that just seems like faulty logic.

Yes, that's right. The general number that I have been told by a DL (former NW) employee is about 5-8% in Economy Class. So for a 767 that means they will oversell Y by 10-15, knowing full well that not all of those will actually show up at the gate. But the amount of oversell is also very dependent on how heavily BE is booked for that particular flight. If BE is full, then there is no place to upgrade any of the oversold Y passengers and so the actual oversale will not be allowed to get that large. If BE is empty, well.....it is a lot easier to sell a $2000 ticket at the last minute than a $6000 ticket, so of course they will oversell Y right up to departure time and then deal with the oversold situation by means of operational upgrades at the gate.

It all comes down to "try to fill every seat, and try to get the most money that you can before the door of the plane is closed."

Yea, markets like LIM will many days have 33/36 seats open in J and -42 in Y.....they just move medallions up if all those in Y show up but very frequently a flight that looks like that will go out with 25 open in J (after op-ups) and coach full. It always amazes me how high some no-show factors are for certain markets. I just wanna know who all the people are that have those tickets booked and never travel (likely agencies).

Domestically it seems a little different. Very rarely will you see the flight oversold by an amount as high as 5%. They may oversell coach by that amount but only if FC has a number of empty seats. On the smaller 50 seat CRJs it is rare to see them oversell by more than 1-2 seats. From the hubs, flights seem to be oversold by more than from outstations because pax will be connecting and there are always misconnects. It is very rare to see domestic flights oversold by much unless you get days of IROPs or extraordinary events.

Yes, my previous comments refer to International flights only, not to Domestic ones! That is a whole different ballgame and the oversell percentage is completely different. But it still will come down to how many seats are actually filled up front, which definitely factors into the equation of how much they are willing to overbook in the back.

That definitely is faulty logic. But it is most the time reality because if DL is still selling tickets, then the flight may be oversold but DL anticipates that several pax will be misconnecting, SDCing to a different flight, or no-showing.

I think most people on the board here just go with the Y0 logic because typically those have the *best* chances of actually being oversold and needing volunteers.

I have personally been VDBed on quite a few flights that were Y3 or Y5, etc....however, whenever I see F0 Y0 I certainly think the chance has been much higher that they offer/need volunteers. It all depends on markets too. When I see Y3 on a CSG-ATL flight, I know volunteers wont be needed....when I see it on a ATL-MCI flight, I know they may need some volunteers if everyone shows.

gave a little shock
 

I am to fly out on DL-200 on the 8th to JNB. I hope it is not full also. I try to watch the load but can you trust the site that shows how many seats are open? I have another question how strict are they on carry on bags?
I will be on a ZED fare. Due to return on the 24th. :)

Another twist, is, that I've seen situations where I was standing at the gate, and the GA is on the PA soliciting volunteers, and at the same time, DL.com is still selling seats! Whether they actually USE the volunteers, is a different story! I guess they're glad to sell a walk-up F or Y fare for more than $400, then pay out a VDB for $400!

Flying out of SDQ on Tuesday on DL566. Saw how J went from empty to 0 almost overnight, even before the DM/PM window, which is uncommon in this route. Right now the flight is showing J0/Y1. While it could happen that a group of business travelers booked the entire cabin, is it possible that an agency blocked all the J seats?

Anything is possible.

Looks like DL just zeroed out the inventory and there are still at least 12 seats open up front. This happens a lot when coach is oversold. To make sure the plane doesn't leave significantly oversold they zero out business or only authorize a couple seats for sale. I wouldn't be too worried though. Usually when the GA opens the flight they clear all the UGs. There are still plenty of seats available in business.

Possible to check if Y is oversold?
 

Hi, I am on a MR today, HKG-->NRT-->HKG. I was op-uped on the outbound leg as a GM on a K fare (will be PM again after return leg). I checked in fairly late, about 90 min before scheduled departure and by the time I got to the gate they were boarding Zone 3 even though we were still 45 minutes out (we pushed 15 min early). I'm now in the NRT SC which is the best in the network!

I'm angling for the op-up on the return leg. EF shows H9 Q8 K1. The EF seat map shows only 2 open seats in Y, both medallion reserved seats in an exit row (where I am; the middle seat on both sides of a 772). There is space in Y. I know a seat map doesn't always match reality, so I want to know is there any way to know if Y is oversold?

And if so, when's the best time to check in, now or later?

Thanks for any help.

There are at least 9 more seats Delta is willing to sell (H9). In addition, there are always a number of seats held back for gate assignment so they show up as taken on the seat map.

I wouldn't hold my breath for an op-up.

I'm not holding my breath, I'm asking how to find more information to formulate a strategy. Thanks though.

That is one of the best ways. Y9 B9 M9 H9 means, as was stated above, that DL is selling at least 9 more seats and in reality many more than that (my guess from minimal detective work is 32).

Coach is certainly no even close to being oversold.

Yeah checking on DL.dumb I see half a dozen seats still open in EC.

Oh well.

But for future reference, what is this "minimal detective work" that helped you arrive at the 32 number?