I don't think there is such a formula as the OP inquires about. I've seen numbers like the ones you have in your reply and the next day, the flight was sold out.

The BEST thing to do is call and GM line and ask as they will tell you if it is oversold or not right now. Sometimes the agent will even tell you by how many.

I did not know that, that is great info, thanks.

I am a PM, I didn't word my OP very carefully, what I meant was that after this MR I would re-qualify as PM for next year. I didn't want to wait for my next scheduled TPAC because I need my choice bennies to get some more SWUs.

I didn't end up with an op-up but every seat in Y was taken including in EC so maybe a DM got an op-up.

Have Delta ever oversold flights to Bermuda
 

ATl-BDA is once per day, and the flight DL 656 on Saturday is showing just one business class seat available for sale. Wondering if there was a bump opportunity on this flight for the next day, or if they purposely never oversell these seasonal holiday vacation destination flights

I live in Bermuda and it is rare for Delta to oversell the flight. Can't recall it happening over the past few years.

Oversold?
 

I'm booked on multi-flight itinerary which includes DL129 (ATL-SEA) on Monday 11/14. Currently the seat assignments are not accessible for DL129. Is that an indication of an oversold condition?

Could someone 'in the know' check?

MO

Pretty close, I'd say. EF shows: F1 P0 A0 Y3 B0 M0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 E0.

They're still selling coach seats and F.

ExpertFlyer is very useful for this sort of thing.

EF says:

My guess for why you can't select seats -- bulkheads are blocked off until gate control.

No, DL holds a lot of seats back for gate assignment, including some nice bulkhead seats. Also, if you are not elite, you cannot reserve the premium seats for elites, even if they are the only available seats, until they open to everyone during check in.

One way to see whether the flight is overbooked is to try to purchase a one way segment on delta.dumb. If the dummy booking does not offer you the flight when you search by schedule and ask to see all flights in your cabin class, then DL is no longer selling seats on your flight.

IIRC oversold means that more people show up at the airport for e flight having confirmed reservations for the flight, but perhaps not seat assignments, than the seats on the flight. Overbooked should mean that they have sold more seats than the plane has, which all airlines, ex pet JetBlue????, do based on their proprietary prediction algorithms.

I'd be prepared to make a bid to be bumped, if your schedule allows.

F is showing one available, Y is oversold to its maximum amount...

Is it oversold or not?
 

Here's one for the DL guru's... maybe we can figure this one out.

So I have a flight mid-day tomorrow booked into Y at which point DL.com didn't have anymore coach seats available for purchase. In fact, I could only find availability on the flight if I specifically set the cabin preference to first/business. I called the PM line and asked if it was oversold and they said yes but they can't tell me by how many. I then check in online and go to look at the UG list and it says that there are 10 available coach tickets on an UG list 15 long.

Is this flight oversold or not? I ask because my travel plans have gained some flexibility and I wouldn't mind taking a VDB to help defray the cost of the Y fare.

What is the flight info so I can check on Expert Flyer?

Dl 2097 msp-sna @ 5:25 pm

Expert Flyer shows F3 P2 A1 Y0. No more Y seats for sale, but as far as I know, EF won't show if the flight is oversold.