I was about to shell out on either some last minute flights or purchase MQM or a combination to get to Platinum since rollover miles have become worthless to me with the new MQD requirement.

After seeing this change, its a good thing I've dragged my feet. I know I'm not a big fish, but Delta just lost ~$2k in revenue from me through the end of the year.

I primarily fly LAX-JFK, with occasional LAX-LGA.

The only reason I was interested in plat was to (hopefully) move from 20 or so up to 10 or so on upgrade list on the LAX-JFK route. And maybe catch a 20%+ upgrade rate as opposed to the 0% I "enjoy" now.

But now there is zero chance even with plat.

And I've gone through the "purchase k or higher fare and upgrade with miles" dance before. Never happens. So unless they actually make seats available, that is worthless.

Also, since essentially no medallion is getting upgraded (I can't imagine a large percentage of DM wasting an global upgrade on a transcon), I also see a massive shortage of Economy Comfort seats happening. As basically every Plat or lower (and many DM) will be fighting over those seats. Economy Comfort will become the new "I got squeezed out because there are too many medallions on the flight" complaint.

All of this, combined with the craptacular MQD and rollover mile changes, has me very seriously looking at jetblue(when they roll out Mint) and VX for their transcon service. It's sad, because I actually like the DL flights and service.

Looks like I'll be using my status next year to simply burn through my miles while switching.

This is the biggest issue here � lots of elite flyers will be missing out on EC seats.

Elite trans-con business flyers that are forced to fly coach, but still purchase higher cost coach fares near departure time are the big losers here. They will pay more for a higher fare class, not get the UG priority benefit, and might miss out on an EC seat.

From my perspective, I�d never get an UG on these routes, but I do fly them sometimes (JFK-LAX-OAK, for example) for leisure or for planned business trips that are booked 1-2 months in advance. At that time, an EC seat is almost always available. However, 1-2 weeks out, they are generally taken.

What changed with the rollover miles?

Rollovers didn't change per se. But the MQD requirement devalued them to almost worthless.

You can rollover miles. But whatever you spent to get them doesn't rollover.

Example: You rollover 20k miles. You now only need 30k to get GM. So that would be roughly only 6 LAX-JFK trips. However, you have to spend $5k in MQD. So you would have to spend $833.33 per trip to make GM. Which is a weird amount. Low fares are usually ~$350-450. K Fares are usually ~$650. Last minute fares are in the $700-800 range. So unless you only buy last minute or fully refundable fares, you are going to be faced with specifically looking for a high fare.

Basically, it doesn't matter that you had those rollovers. You still have to spend like they didn't exist.

Of course, if you meet the CC spend, rollovers remain the same. But I refuse to get the card. BTW, from everything I am seeing, Delta seems more interested in becoming a credit card company that offers airline perks than an airline that offers a credit card. To me, ALL of the medallion devaluations are a direct result of the credit cards.

Actually, I think the EC situation will likely improve.

Currently, upgrades aren't processed until the gate anyway, meaning anyone who wants EC is probably there already (free for GM+, so they pick at time of booking assuming availability; FO- pay in advance and weren't likely to get upgraded anyway). It's not like EC seats open up at T-6.

EC on the 75Es already went from 11 to 22, and is going up to 46 AIUI. So EC availability will increase, and will be approximately 25% of Y seating.

And a measurable number of medallions will be leaving DL on these routes and flying AA/B6/VX, which will decrease demand for EC.

I really think that we are still going to see upgrades on this route, just less of them and they will be op-ups, not medallion upgrades. Delta can oversell coach and not IDB by giving an op-up to a Y pax. I think this will happen all the time-- why would Delta leave money on the table...if someone wants to buy a last minute expensive coach fare but coach is sold out, DL can sell it and upgrade a person.

Probably the upgrade list will be the same, but just not public, and will only be used to make room for to board all coach pax rather than fill BE. So, in other words, I would expect a few diamonds to get upgraded on most flights.

But there are a lot more PMs than DMs. Moreover, since they're not being offered the chance to get GUs, they're very likely to pick the RUs for their choice benefit since the alternatives of gifted FO, 20,000 RDMs, a few SC admissions, etc. aren't very enticing except possibly for the $200 DL ecert.

Every upgrade gained by someone using a RU is one taken away from someone else. Chances are, the someone else is Diamond. You're right in that this probably won't affect most Diamonds much; not all PMs will take RUs, so the number of Platinum RUs might be similar to the number of Diamonds, therefore the average Diamond will lose around 1 upgrade per year. (Yes, those numbers are wild guesses.)

I'm not sure. I often book in a 2-3 week window and rarely find a large selection of EC seats. This is a heavy demand route after all.

However, an EC aisle or window always appears at check-in, which I can switch to. I would think this is due to someone clearing. But without the 7-10 ppl clearing, there are 7-10 fewer (often EC) seats available. FYI, I never expect to clear for that flight. But I am ok with EC on the 767 transcons. Its not layflat, but its nice enough.

Still, you are right that installing more EC seats will help offset, though I don't know by how much. And yes, since I quite likely will be one of them, I do see medallions leaving that route.

I find the Delta marketing line humorous in retrospect. We are upgrading the cabins because trancon flights are pretty much like JFK-LHR flights. I guess they left out the part that they would also treat upgrades the same as JFK-LHR.

This is quite possible. But then it turns into the chocolates for the gate agent game.

On the other hand, I am really not understanding why Delta is setting up a system where BE seats will be empty. The only way this makes sense is if they free up more seats for miles upgrades or are planning on instituting a purchase upgrade at check-in option.

While I'm sure it will happen sometimes, I don't think it will be that much. We're not talking about an international route with a single 767 per day. LAX alone typically has something like 7 flights a day, and these hardly ever oversell in Y. More likely there are 50 open seats on the plane.

Upgrades don't clear until roughly when check-in closes (give or take a few minutes). These are more likely people switching/canceling flights, or changing seats for some reason.

really? I think they are often full or nearly. And I would guess that they are prevented from being oversold by upgrades....

Granted it is holiday travel time, but I did a search for tomorrow LAX-JFK and only two flights show up, so I would assume the rest are full. . . .

Are you sure you didn't search for today (two redeyes remain scheduled)? LAX-JFK for 12/18 shows up as

DL476 J9/Y9 (K+ open)
DL16 J5/Y9 (V+ open)
DL862 J0/Y9 (L+ open)
DL2262 J0/Y9 (U+ open)
DL2362 J5/Y9 (V+ open)
DL1162 J0/Y9 (L+ open)
DL1262 J1/Y9 (S+ open)

Generally booking into H on delta.com, except for 1262. This is a typical pattern IME.

err...maybe I did search for today.... in any case, I would still expect some Diamond op ups. What this will certainly prevent is a FO or GM getting upgraded on a cheap ticket on a slow day....


Does anyone have data for typical loads for the transcons? How often they sell out?

I am a PM who is based outside the US and I fly mostly international on Delta back to the US without any domestic segments.

So now instead of SWUs which I could use internationally on YBM (motivating me to buy expensive fares), I only get US domestic upgrades which are useless to me?

They should have given PMs the choice of the 4 US domestic upgrades or 1 international upgrade so it would not be completely useless for international based PMs. Or at least kept the international YBM SWUs which had a clear upside for Delta.