It is simple math.
The 2025 number is a false number that includes HK Express.
The 2019 number does not include HK Express.
Looking at their leet plan.
CX will have less widebodies than CX/KA did it 2019 until at least the year 2027.

There is not a single market where CX frequency post covid is higher than pre covid.

The cabin upgrades won't really be felt for the customer on a massive scale till 2027.
the midhaul order will be largely to replace 25 year old A330s and 777s.

anyways my claims are not actually controversial.
Unless CX is getting a last minute boost to pilots and planes over the next 2 years.
It is mathematically impossible to be larger than CX/KA pre covid.

Aside from freighters, at end 2019 CX/KA had 159 widebodies and 23 single aisle frames. At end 2023 it had 147 widebodies and 14 single aisles. Hopefully not, but with planned lease expiries, stuffed manufacturers' order books and the way Boeing is performing it may well be 2028 or 2029 before it gets above the 2019 fleet size. As others have suggested this could lead to lease extensions or additional leases which would likely ruin the ideas of standardisation of subfleets.

It is very unfair to exclude UO considering how it successfully takes over the price-sensitive leisure travelling demand.

Not so re pilots.
Certainly at the moment there 400 less than in 2019 but this more than enough to service the announced network for at least the next at least 6 months . Recruiting has become easier to the extent that direct entry first officer recruiting has stopped and going forward pilot resources will be more than adequate to resume a full schedule and service expansion.
Aircraft resources however I believe are another story and unless more aircraft can be short term leased this I believe will be a pinch point as the 70+ aircraft on order will not come on stream early enough to service the intended expansion.

I consider UO is a totally separate business as it appears does Cathay. I will never consider taking it and I think that most of the folk in this forum have little or no interest in it. When discussing CX's route resumptions I consider it has little relevance apart from Guilin, Kota Kinabalu and similar places perhaps.

If that's your approach, you should also try to remove the former KA assets from your pre 2020 vision of CX.

Cathay Pacific is still actively seeking Direct Entry First Officers.

Cathay Pacific is currently hosting a pilot recruitment event in Australia this month, making stops in Sydney, Adelaide, and Perth. Alongside inviting Cadets and Second Officer applicants, the airline is actively seeking experienced Airline Pilots to join their team (First Officers).

https://careers.cathaypacific.com/our-teams/pilots

Not the same thing.
UO existed pre 2019
​​​
unless you manipulate the data it is literally impossible for CX to hit precoid levels earlier than 2027.

No. UO is an LCC. KA was a full service airline, associate of OneWorld with Business Class on most flights. Every month Cathay reports its traffic figures to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These included KA figures. They have never included those of UO in these reports. You will be saying next that Air Hong Kong and Cathay's freight business are the same.

The younger members of our largish family use the airline regularly (i just twice) with Cathays Hong Kong Express and have no complaints -it does what it says on the tin better than most it seems -and its cheap.
It is a true LCC but its aircraft are new -it is expanding fast and now fly's most of the Asian trunk routes including a significant japan network of 7 routes ex HKG.
The airline is growing fast and now 36% more routes than pre pandemic -they will have 40 aircraft (most under 5 years by end 2025.
Being Cathay Diamond some benefits carry across.

I dont know re any Australian activity aimed specifically at FOs.
And they have announced on-line and withdrawn adds via agencies for First officers a couple of months back . Possibly they may need more in the future of course.

There is however significant interest in AU and NZ from pilots considering re-joining the airline with 200+ having done so since 2023

Only KA was considered as part of CX, e.g. in terms of earning miles/ points and getting lounge access, etc
Whereas flying UO does not result in any point earning towards Cathay Status

KA was designed as a low cost version of CX to compete with LCCs recently before the pandemic.

If you look at the development of KA during those years, KA was sent to launch third-tier cities in Southeast Asia, Japan and Mainland China.

Another evidence is the layout of 32Q. 32Q was designed for KA for replacement for all of their narrow bodies. All the complaints about the recliners on 32Q was rooted by the idea that the cost level of KA’s operation needed to be structurally lower than CX’s.

I'm old enough to remember when KA was awesome.

i guess that makes me old too. i have such fond memories of KA, particularly before the Cathay Dragon rebrand refresh thing whenever that was

[edit: according to wiki that happened in 2016].

Dragonair was an excellent airline and their F/As were consistently some of the best in the industry.
They were league ahead of CX. They spoke three languages - cantonese, mandarin and English fluently. Of course flying all these flights to China help with the language skills and how to understand some of their unique culture of Mainland passengers onboard a flight.

That's why I was not surprised when CX eliminated KA and went into all the customer problems that CX faced last year on flights to China.

However KA's catering was not that great that on some of the lower yield routes like to Penang and Kota Kinabalu. At the same time, their catering to China and Taiwan were pretty good. I like KA's business class meals between HKG and TPE more than Cathay Pacific.

Carfield