tajee165

Yep. I re-booked same dates for HKG-CMB, just out of pocket the cash flight for CMB-MLE. Not as good, but not as bad as I expected.

trader00

It is just strange that CX have not been selling any tickets on its own metal after 30 Oct 2021 (end of IATA summer season), even the norm is selling 360 days in advance.

e.g. if we want to buy a ticket to LHR on CX it has to be on or before 30 Oct 2021 (some flight departs in early 31 Oct 2021 morning), or partner flights on/after 31 Oct 2021.

A lot of other airlines remain selling tickets 360 days in advance. Any thought that happened to CX? Maybe they are now understaffed in the planning department?

fakecd

why waste resources/planning for T+300day when they werent even told of govt flip flopping until T-15hr on bubble flight. seriously situation is so fluid now i seriously question if CX is around then in its current form. dont forget only 9mths back i was still doing random weekends out of HK, thats a very long future.

Howard Long

Could anyone kindly help me with this question, are the shower facilities currently operating in either Wing F or J?

I am looking at connecting through HKG next weekend.

I apologise if this is answered before elsewhere, I couldn't find it addressed. The last time I travelled though HKG was in March, and finding showers wasn't at all straightforward (although I was travelling on LX and EK on those occasions, not OW).

VE105

In early Sept, Wing J is closed and all J pax were given access to Wing F, however, shower facilities were closed.

sbs2716g

There are rumors that the subcontractor that is operating CX lounges in HK will be cutting staff.

brunos

The statement by Professor David Hui Shu-cheong is very worrying:
“If we are lucky, by the third quarter of next year we will start seeing the first batches of vaccines arrive, and I believe by around 2022, the chance for all Hongkongers to be vaccinated should be quite high,”
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...disease-expert

Let's hope that he is wrong. UK will start vaccinating on Tuesday (800,000 scheduled in the week).

fakecd

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...abChangeable=0

Cathay Pacific has warned that its second-half loss will be “significantly higher” than its record first-half loss of nearly HK$9.9 billion.

i cant help but i only see the irony hk govt bailed CX out but its their own boarder lockdown policies that will evaporate any stake in CX they own. i dont need a spreadsheet to model this company is going under. if demand recovers magically all the qualified pilots will jump ship anyways... we grudge about our own bosses, but the anger these pilots have for CX is few magnitude of orders different, they are realllly pissed off

brunos

Further analysis:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...half-2020-will

The future looks increasingly bleak for CX.
Demand continues to weaken on long-haul routes and the hoped-for increase for the end-year holiday season has failed to materialize. Restructuring (expected to be 3.5 billion) and impairment costs (was 2.5 billion in H1 2020) will hit CX H2 2020 results. CX might decide not to retire aircrafts to avoid showing huge impairment costs. The monthly operating loss has possibly widened in H2 2020 rather than decreased. I would not be surprised if H2 loss was 15+ billion, whatever accounting gimmicks are used to reduce it. Some loans will be up for reimbursement soon. Unclear if banks will be willing to rollover. A 10% capacity for early 2021, with miserable loads, is below expectations formulated a few months ago. Cargo prospects are good but the import of vaccine into HK is not a sufficient life-saver.

percysmith

November and December (normal 360 days) inventory now loaded.

Reply1984

The impairment is paper loss. It does not affect the cash flow. Actually airlines are comfortable to make impairment loss in advance during the recessions, and when they see the demand recovering 'as a miracle', then they could easily reverse these impairment losses to profits.

As for restructuring costs, companies benefit from over-reporting the restructuring costs. When the restructuring period ends but there are still some allowances, then these costs can be reversed to profits.

These accounting gimmicks make today's situations worse, but work for a cool turnaround in the future.

neofung

I will say timetable is loaded but inventory is not loaded properly yet. Only full fare Y loaded in the system.

percysmith

I just redeemed my November long haul. The missus being the wife of an Australian is frowning every time I suggested transferring in DOH.

fakecd

assuming there is a turn around.

my money is on a complete govt takeover of CX wiping out equity in the process (surprises this wasnt done yet) or be absorbed to mainland cariers. the govt is clearly merging hk to rest of china via various GBA schemes and business model CX built itself on the world it envisioned doesnt exist anymore in post C-era.

in many other airline restructure the FFP were preserved but i dont see Asiamiles making the cut and also get wiped out, thus i stopped using CX amex card a while back (which has auto conversion monthly) instead opting to pile up on amex MR points instead.

ironically HK airport is expanding with third runway and all that, but their home flag carier may not be around by then

brunos

Indeed, profit and cash are two different concepts.
A loss-making company can have a good cash position by borrowing and increasing its equity base. To survive on a daily basis, a company needs cash to pay for its operation
But a company that consumes a lot of cash and expects huge losses in the coming years will have a very difficult time accessing the marketplace for more loans or equity. That leaves the government for major injections.

I admire your claim that impairment losses can be easily reversed. Not sure how to do it. CX has only "impaired" a very few aircraft. Whatever the optimistic outlook in the coming two years, they will need far fewer aircraft than currently owned. Impairment losses will keep piling up.
Restructuring losses are both cash and accounting losses (like paying redundancy allowances). They cannot be reversed. Your argument seems to be that CX has overstated the restructuring costs. Conversely, I believe that the restructuring plan conceived many months ago, will have to be extended now that the future air travel picture has deteriorated.

All these are not "accounting gimmicks". And the UK news of a more infectious mutation is not good.