One data point: I cleared JFK-DEL from PE to J as a Plat Pro in May '24, using an SWU. Bought the ticket in March, when seatmap (not a perfect indicator I know) was more than half empty. I got the upgrade in mid-April (seatmap was just over half full). J was fully booked when the flight left - fortunately including me! Was on 77W with 52 J

so an update. I booked a trip to GIG instead (via JFK), and called in to use my SWUs fully expecting to get waitlisted. ExpertFlyer showing 0s C avail.
Instead, rep just confirms me on the spot!! The outbound flight is almost 3 weeks out. The return, 5 weeks out. I’m glad I actually got to use them and without being in limbo over flying in Y or not either.

ExpertFlyer is NOT trustworthy. Their C finders don’t actually work. The website says to search for the segment directly, but I did JFK-GIG both ways and showed 0s.

Barely EXP with about 200K LP

10/1/24

OKC- DFW E175 #2 out of 18 for one seat. I was the first loser.

DFW-BZN E175. I was the only person on the upgrade list for one seat, and I cleared 40 minutes before the flight. This flight had a $97 upgrade offer on the app right up to 24 hours before departure. Astonishing that as an EXP I was the only person on the list before boarding.


10/8/24

Today I am flying on separate tickets BZN-SEA-SFO on AS and SFO-PHX-MTY on AA.

BZN-SEA AS 738. I paid $40 on the AS app to upgrade this flight. The flight was scheduled as a 739. It was changed to a 738 with 4 fewer F seats, and I was involuntarily downgraded about 5 minutes before boarding. To add insult to injury, I was put in regular Y, not premium.

SEA-SFO AS 739. I was number 1 on the AS upgrade list, and me and numbers 2 and 3 were upgraded about an hour before the flight. Excellent service in AS F with a small breakfast served.

SFO-PHX A321. #3 out of 21 for 3 seats, and upgraded right before boarding. #2, myself at #3, and #4 were upgraded, and #1 on the list was passed over on the list. I am writing this on board this flight.

PHX-MTY E175. Cleared at the 100 hour window. There is nobody on the waitlist as of this post.


Also, this goes to show that all of the people on here that say, "If you want to fly in first, pay for first!" are right on the money. I had four flights today total; on the one flight I paid for first, I sat in coach. On the three flights that I did not pay for first, I sat in first.

Periodically, AA's back end system will glitch and C0 will still clear. It's happened a few times in recent memory based on reports from posters here.

Generally, EF is accurate. However, it is possible there is a delay or AA's IT is it's usual competent self.

Bumping this

This is an indicator, but it isn't a guarantee. EF only goes to J7, so whether it is 7 exactly or 15 isn't known other than using the seat map, which isn't foolproof. Also, since F is a worthless product that basically no one pays money for, AA often oversells J; you can have a flight with all 20 J seats occupied, but J7 as AA will cabin roll people if oversold.

The other unknown is who is on your flight. I usually get upgraded and am 1-3 on the list - today I was #9 on IAH-DFW (Group 1 was 50+ people on an 320).

tl;dr EF J and seat maps are good indicators, but not guarantees.

IMHO, EF will only show you how many seats are still for sale in any given fare bucket, with no correlation to complimentary upgrade probability. So while EF may show 7+ seats left for sale in First a week out, because all of the in-app upgrade offers, this may drop to no seats the day before the flight.

That said, if I am looking at multiple flight options for a given day and have flexibility, I will generally choose the flights with the most seats open in First, as subconsciously I believe (or hope) this may help my complimentary upgrade chances.

Out of curiousity, how many rolling 12-month LPs?

Upgrade lists are getting deeper as we get further into the elite year.

That said, MIA-MSY this past Sunday night had 11 seats open (I was the only passenger in F through the PLT window) and everyone on the list cleared. The app upgrade system was in full glitch-mode as it wanted $294 to upgrade!

Cleared at the gate yesterday for 1 F seat on a 175 MIA-TPA.

Thursday, last plane DFW-OMA, booked 3 hours before departure, never even made the list…12 on list and 0 cleared. (Knew ahead there was no chance via EF)

Friday, OMA-DFW, booked 12 hours before departure, upgrade confirmed 5 minutes after booking…list had 1 and did not clear, AA employee plopped into 1C just before departure.

Plat, 103kLP rolling.

No since with status you get to choose MCE seats at booking (gold at 24 hours before departure)

Thank you both. I found C7 on the CLT route, so going to take that instead. Bird in hand and all that.

Not totally sure. I'm at 180k on this qualification period. Had a couple of intl J trips end of last year, so maybe 300k? Might be less.

I'm definitely aided by not flying hub-hub flights (I'm IAH/HOU based) and having complete schedule flexibility.

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More recent flight upgrade data:
10/9 - IAH-DFW - Missed. Was #9 on the list and Group 1 was 50 people. No one cleared.
10/9 - DFW-SJC - Cleared at T24.5
10/14 - SFO-PHX - Cleared at T27.5
10/14 - SJC-PHX - SFO-PHX delayed by 10 hours. Moved to SJC-PHX and upgrade cleared immediately (or was carried over)
10/14 - PHX-MSY - Missed. Was #2 on the list. No one cleared. a319 was J0 on booking.

I am heading back to the US tomorrow, and I was upgraded on both legs as a barely EXPlat.

10/16/24

MTY-PHX E175 Cleared T-36 (No breakfast in F? :( )

PHX-LAX A321-NEO Cleared T-100

I've been upgraded on six out of my last eight flight legs, so I am happy. It illustrates that if you fly to the places where other elites don't want to go on days that other elites don't want to go there, and with clientele that is not willing to pay for upgrades, it's easy to sit up front.

While I agree with you, I think there are fewer and fewer places where elites don’t want to go and fewer and fewer days/times where they aren’t traveling. Anecdotal evidence, but my PHL-BOS mid day today on a Tuesday had 33 on the upgrade list.

While you can still find easy upgrades, it’s getting tougher and tougher.