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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Mar 6, 2022, 1:17 pm
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Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Jul 10, 2022, 7:44 pm
  #421  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: DFW
Programs: AAdvantage EXP
Posts: 62
LHR - DFW yesterday July 9th: I'm Platinum Pro, and had my wife (no status) and two kids (no status) on same PNR. I was #1 and my wife #2 on upgrade list (mileage upgrade) and we both cleared at time of boarding.
Gate agent said my kids (ages 6 and 9) were #6 and #7 on the upgrade list and would not clear.

Does anyone know why my wife would be #2 and clear with no status but my Kids would fall to 6 and 7? I though the whole family would inherit my status.
Frustratingly, a total of 5 cleared for the upgrade (including myself and my wife). So my kids would have also cleared had they been 3 and 4 on the list, which is what I would have expected.
SR20kads is offline  
Old Jul 14, 2022, 7:10 pm
  #422  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: Marriott Plat, AA Plat
Posts: 122
PHL>LHR July 15. At check-in, bought the offered upgrade to Premium Economy for $180. Never done AA PE trans-Atlantic, so not sure if it's worth it. Took the opportunity anyway. B 787-9 Dreamliner.
patriotPHL1 is offline  
Old Jul 14, 2022, 7:29 pm
  #423  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
Originally Posted by patriotPHL1
PHL>LHR July 15. At check-in, bought the offered upgrade to Premium Economy for $180. Never done AA PE trans-Atlantic, so not sure if it's worth it. Took the opportunity anyway. B 787-9 Dreamliner.
Everyone is different but I would say the $180 for that flight is easily worth it.
voweffekt and mochajj87 like this.
hawkfan7314 is offline  
Old Jul 15, 2022, 7:00 am
  #424  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: AUS
Programs: BAEC Gold, AA PPro, Hyatt Globalist, Amex Plat
Posts: 7,074
Originally Posted by hawkfan7314
Everyone is different but I would say the $180 for that flight is easily worth it.
Agreed.

Regards
scubadu is offline  
Old Jul 15, 2022, 7:14 am
  #425  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,845
Originally Posted by hawkfan7314
Everyone is different but I would say the $180 for that flight is easily worth it.
Yah. No brainer. The difference from Y to PE-Y is pretty big - especially on what is 6.5 hours of flying overnight.
IADCAflyer is offline  
Old Jul 16, 2022, 7:04 am
  #426  
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: PHL/LAX/MAD (for now)
Programs: American Airlines Executive Platinum, AmEx Membership Rewards
Posts: 886
7/12 PHL to BOS (AA1153) A321: Cleared at T-48. Was a very light load in F before elites began to clear
7/16 BOS to PHL (AA2255) A320: Cleared at T-12. Super weird series of events. It was J6 a week before my flight so I felt pretty confident in my chances, then when I looked a few hours later, it went to J3. It remained J3 throughout the EXP, PPro, and Plt windows until about T-34 when two seats F seats opened up. Was curious as to why it took so long to clear when there were 4 MCE seats selected (I method I use to identify other Plts and higher) and 5 open seats, but whatever, at least I cleared.
ryanbriar likes this.
FlyFreakquently is offline  
Old Jul 16, 2022, 9:58 am
  #427  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA 1MM CK, DL Plat, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), BAEC Gold
Posts: 1,210
AA 100 JFK-LHR (upcoming 7/21) - applied an SWU from J to F a few weeks back. Ranging between F3-F1 based on EF alerts. Received an A alert a few days ago, but space was gone when I checked again and my SWU was not processed (F remained at 3). The next day I checked the PNR and I had an unassigned seat in F. I set an EF alert on my old seat, but someone must have grabbed it before the EF alert was triggered.

I normally wouldnt use an SWU on the early LHR flight (limited time to enjoy FFD), but I have 10 plus to use and figured it would be nice to have a few glasses of LPGS.
voweffekt likes this.
ryanbriar is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2022, 8:57 am
  #428  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,065
Amazingly I cleared all three legs of a trip this week to SJC.

DFW-SJC cleared at the gate Monday morning
SJC-PHX cleared T-96
PHX-DFW cleared T-24

All had relatively short waitlists except the last leg which had 37 on it.

By the way the sjc-phx flight was an old 320 with those crazy lounger chairs that recline pretty far back. It also had the wifi where T mobile was free. Great flight.
SFflyer20 likes this.
enviroian is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2022, 5:59 pm
  #429  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,595
This week:

DEN-LAX, CR7, Monday 8am departure: cleared at EXP window (~100 hours)

Unfortunately, no way to upgrade the JAL Y flight LAX-HND that followed. Hah.
bse118 is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2022, 7:32 am
  #430  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP 1MM, WOH Globalist
Posts: 1,160
Hope you are all sitting down for this one...

This was experience 2 weeks ago as a PLAT with ~110k LPs.

Monday
DCA-CLT: Cleared at T48. About 15 on the list at the gate, not sure how many cleared.
CLT-DEN: #2 out of 24 on the upgrade list. It had been showing J1 for a couple days. Cleared at the gate (only me and #1 cleared)!

Wednesday
DEN-ORD: Paid $97 to upgrade the segment a week before departure. It was J2 at the time. 20+ on the list at the gate and nobody cleared.
ORD-DCA: Cleared around T30. This one surprised me the most. 18 on the list at the gate, 1 or 2 cleared.
njvandy is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2022, 11:37 am
  #431  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Chicago
Programs: AA Platinum, Hilton Gold, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 228
Platinum, ~65,000 LPs

ORD-LAX, July 10: 7th of 23 on the list, 2 cleared.
LAX-ORD, July 20: cleared T-26-ish. 10 on the list at the airport, only 1 cleared.
merlin90 is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2022, 4:57 pm
  #432  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA 1MM CK, DL Plat, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), BAEC Gold
Posts: 1,210
As a follow up from my post a few days ago:

BOS-JFK #498 (321T): A few folks cleared at the gate and we went out 9/10.

JFK-LHR AA100 (773): F went out 7 of 8 (unfortunately no dice on a window seat). Shaping up to be a great flight! No one on the first or business waitlists, and I think we went out ~J6 (at least before boarding). Light load in F. Per the agent at the FL, folks are canceling due to the variant (though the FL seemed stacked when I left FFD).
ryanbriar is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2022, 8:44 pm
  #433  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 738
LAX-JFK AA 184 (Y to J): I booked my ticket on Wednesday night for a Sunday flight. The complimentary upgrade cleared on Thursday morning so 4 days before the actual flight.
AA EXP with 120,000 loyalty pts so far this year.
zip10001 is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2022, 1:24 pm
  #434  
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Posts: 13
Just a general question: To have a transcon flight in Oct this year. For Plat Pro member, a weekend red eye (departure on Sat and land on Sun) flight SFO->JFK or LAX -> BOS, generally which route may have a larger chance for comp upgrading from economy to business? I thought the latter one might have a bigger chance?
littleprince_ is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2022, 2:42 pm
  #435  
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: PHL/LAX/MAD (for now)
Programs: American Airlines Executive Platinum, AmEx Membership Rewards
Posts: 886
Originally Posted by littleprince_
Just a general question: To have a transcon flight in Oct this year. For Plat Pro member, a weekend red eye (departure on Sat and land on Sun) flight SFO->JFK or LAX -> BOS, generally which route may have a larger chance for comp upgrading from economy to business? I thought the latter one might have a bigger chance?
I'm inclined to say LAX-BOS, but it's pretty dumb luck. What I'd do is look at expertflyer and check the J loads of flights departing 72+ hours in advance. While this isn't the most reliable way to tell whether you're going to clear to J, it is usually a solid indicator of the availability trends for these routes.
FlyFreakquently is offline  


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