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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

Old Mar 6, 22, 2:17 pm
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Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

Old Aug 17, 22, 2:10 am
  #466  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,437
I am flying PHL-DFW-ABQ on Thursday. I'm EXP with a fairly good upgrade percentage so far this year.

I'm on a 3:32 departure that was J3 until earlier today when it went to J1. There is a 2:29 departure that is currently J3. Assuming I don't mind leaving an hour earlier and spending an hour longer in DWF, is it sensible (assuming the 2:29 departure remains J3) to do a SDC change Wednesday at 2:30 to the 2:29 departure?
redtop43 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 7:50 am
  #467  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Midwest USA
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 589
Better upgrade possibility. ORD-LHR or DFW-LHR

I just wanted a general consensus regarding which airport would probably be most likely to have a SWU clear (right now both flights show C0 on EF).
I'm looking at traveling to London on Oct 14 late evening and connecting through either ORD or DFW. Like I mentioned earlier, both flight I'm interested in have C0 but lots of "available" seats showing on the seat maps, DFW is a 777W so about 10 more J seats show available.
EF still has J7 for both too.
I know I will be waitlisted and I am leaning toward DFW simply because to me the possibility of clearing a SWU might be greater, but it could also mean more people buying J and filling up or more CK folks ahead of me on the waitlist..
Any thoughts and insights are welcome as to which airport I should choose, ORD or DFW. Thanks.
ceebee100 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 8:20 am
  #468  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 27,210
Personally (I have flown a few of these flights ) I would go with the later DFW departures as your best bet. Why? People who are traveling for work need to connect early at LHR. The later flights get in at noon or later not really favorable for connections. Personally however I wouldn't be flying unless C has space at booking, which AA has made it just about impossible.

Sorry mom.
ceebee100 likes this.
enviroian is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 8:53 am
  #469  
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 621
Flying DFW/MIA tonight (Wednesday evening flight) and as an EXP (lower spend) I'm already number 8 on the upgrade list. First was sold out before the upgrade window even opened. Starting with my flight on Friday and continuing on I'm just buying F out right. However, I'm finding that to get a reasonable price I need to do connections over a direct flight out MIA.
EXP100 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 9:38 am
  #470  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 82
7 am Friday SFO-CLT: #7/28, nobody cleared.
3 pm Friday CLT-SFO: #2/3, 1 cleared at the gate, then I was moved into first class after taking my seat in coach, along with the other elite, an AA pilot, and a fourth person. Perhaps a party of 4 missed their connection?
SFflyer20 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 10:03 am
  #471  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Midwest USA
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 589
Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Personally (I have flown a few of these flights ) I would go with the later DFW departures as your best bet. Why? People who are traveling for work need to connect early at LHR. The later flights get in at noon or later not really favorable for connections. Personally however I wouldn't be flying unless C has space at booking, which AA has made it just about impossible.

Sorry mom.
Thanks! That's my thinking as well. Thanks again for your thoughts.
ceebee100 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 11:00 am
  #472  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA EXP, DL Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), Aeroplan 75K
Posts: 781
JFK may not be viable and it is a short hop, but those flights seem to have a lot of J space (and sometimes C space) given the frequencies across all airlines and the 77W / 772 being used by AA.
ceebee100 likes this.
ryanbriar is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 11:15 am
  #473  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA LT Gold
Posts: 3,283
Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
People who are traveling for work need to connect early at LHR.
This is not accurate, it is definitely a YMMV situation.
I'd rather have almost a full day at work in the US (I'm on the west coast), leave the office late PM and then arrive late PM in Europe to go straight to my bed than
take an early flight, lose a day of work in the US and arrive jet lagged to Europe for an afternoon of work. Most at my office prefer the same too (leave on the latest flight possible).

OP, it is a toss and nobody knows. AA will dynamically change pricing (for either ORD or DFW) and offer upgrades on the app or website to fill up the cabin with paid J passengers.
ceebee100 likes this.
carlosdca is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 1:12 pm
  #474  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: Marriott Titanium, HH Diamond, AA Plat
Posts: 102
Originally Posted by js1993 View Post
Nice timing. How did the APD payment work?
Reverting back to this. What made this upgrade even better was that there must have been a glitch and the APD payment never hit my credit card. Netted a completely "free" upgrade. Must take the wins.
patriotPHL1 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 1:17 pm
  #475  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: USA
Programs: American Airlines (Executive Platinum), Hyatt (Globalist), Hilton (Diamond), IHG (Diamond)
Posts: 2,313
Originally Posted by patriotPHL1 View Post
Reverting back to this. What made this upgrade even better was that there must have been a glitch and the APD payment never hit my credit card. Netted a completely "free" upgrade. Must take the wins.
Nice. Your friend definitely didn't provide a CC number when applying the SWU?

There have been multiple reports of SWUs not clearing because a valid payment method wasn't available for the APD, so this is interesting.
js1993 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 1:22 pm
  #476  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: Marriott Titanium, HH Diamond, AA Plat
Posts: 102
Originally Posted by js1993 View Post
Nice. Your friend definitely didn't provide a CC number when applying the SWU?

There have been multiple reports of SWUs not clearing because a valid payment method wasn't available for the APD, so this is interesting.
I patched him in on a 3-way call while on with the agent, for his SWU approval. I then provided my CC info to agent, so correct, my friend definitely didn't. Waited 30 days to make sure no CC charge appeared.
js1993 likes this.
patriotPHL1 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 1:49 pm
  #477  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, accidental DL FO, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,913
Originally Posted by redtop43 View Post
I am flying PHL-DFW-ABQ on Thursday. I'm EXP with a fairly good upgrade percentage so far this year.

I'm on a 3:32 departure that was J3 until earlier today when it went to J1. There is a 2:29 departure that is currently J3. Assuming I don't mind leaving an hour earlier and spending an hour longer in DWF, is it sensible (assuming the 2:29 departure remains J3) to do a SDC change Wednesday at 2:30 to the 2:29 departure?
Many flights are cleared down to J1 just before T-24 (like T-26ish), so changing at T-24 often won't help in a scenario like this. You'd generally still have to hope you're #1 on the list at the gate and that the last seat is still available for a gate upgrade (or someone else cancels and it goes back to J2 or greater after T-24). On some routes, AA will hold back a few more seats beyond T-24, particularly if it's the last flight of the day. Last week, I noticed the late night PHX-DEN was still J5 at T-24, with upgrades only clearing around T-12, for example, but most routes are down to J1 or J0 by T-24.
metallo is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 2:30 pm
  #478  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: ORD, MDW or MKE
Programs: American and Southwest. Hilton and Marriott hotels primarily.
Posts: 6,387
I am gold and my wife is nothing. For reasons that I don't understand, they upgraded us from economy to premium economy on a fairly full flight from Barcelona to O'hare.

If that is the only upgrade I get this year, I will be happy.
lougord99 is online now  
Old Aug 17, 22, 2:47 pm
  #479  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: USA
Programs: American Airlines (Executive Platinum), Hyatt (Globalist), Hilton (Diamond), IHG (Diamond)
Posts: 2,313
Originally Posted by lougord99 View Post
I am gold and my wife is nothing. For reasons that I don't understand, they upgraded us from economy to premium economy on a fairly full flight from Barcelona to O'hare.

If that is the only upgrade I get this year, I will be happy.
Most likely, Y was oversold.
js1993 is offline  
Old Aug 17, 22, 3:14 pm
  #480  
 
Join Date: Nov 2021
Location: LBB
Programs: AA PlatPro, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 40
Plat w/ 104k lp. Got a DFW to ORD upgrade T-27hours for a Saturday flight
lawly is offline  

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