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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Mar 6, 2022, 1:17 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Aug 17, 2022, 2:29 pm
  #481  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,972
Originally Posted by lougord99
I am gold and my wife is nothing.
Does she know this?

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Old Aug 17, 2022, 2:43 pm
  #482  
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: USA
Programs: American Airlines (Executive Platinum), Hyatt (Globalist), Hilton (Diamond), IHG (Diamond)
Posts: 2,917
Originally Posted by enviroian
Does she know this?

Now she’s a DYKWIA who likes PE.

haha
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Old Aug 17, 2022, 9:35 pm
  #483  
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: INT/GSO/CLT/RDU
Programs: AA EXP 1MM; HH Gold; Bonvoy Gold; Wynd Diamond
Posts: 228
PPro 155K LPs and approx 4000 2021 EQDs that should still be counting for upgrade rank.

8/11 CLT - LAS A321 - 5 seats available 2 days out, TOD price drops to $194 (from a steady 450-625 for a couple of weeks) and the seats drop to 2 at the T-24 hours mark. 1 seat open from T-5 until boarding. I was #4 on the list. Didn't notice anyone clear, but all seats were full.

8/15 LAS - AUS 737-Max - 5 seats available from T-12 until upgrade cleared at T-4. Was #2 at T-12.
8/15 AUS - CLT 737-800 - Upgrade cleared at the T-72 mark.
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Old Aug 18, 2022, 7:47 am
  #484  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,550
I've had really good success so far this year but today... (EXP with lowish EQM/LP):
PHL-DFW: 12/41(!)
DFW-ABQ: 5/12
Notably, I'm booked on 8/21 for PHL-PHX-LAS and also ABQ-PHX-LAS. Will obviously cancel PHL-PHX-LAS as soon as I'm sure I'm going to ABQ. Have already been upgraded at the window for PHL-PHX, and both me and my evil twin for PHX-LAS. The moral this week seems to be: in/out DFW, fuggedaboutit; anywhere else, "What would you like for lunch?"
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Last edited by redtop43; Aug 18, 2022 at 12:33 pm
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Old Aug 18, 2022, 2:53 pm
  #485  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Reno, NV
Programs: NFY, AA EXP, Marriott TE
Posts: 516
EXP w/ 210k

Somewhere around 195k+, I went from a consistent #4 on the waitlist to #1. It was a noticeable change.

Since then, 100% UG, including hubs.

All the best, James
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Old Aug 18, 2022, 3:20 pm
  #486  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 54
I'm just platinum and my flight from MEM-MIA for 8/20 cleared for an upgrade at 48 hours out.

My wife (platinum as well) and her mom both on a separate booking together are still pending for same flight with 4 open seats in first.

I will update the results, just a little confused at booking logic because we all booked at same time and my wife has more LP points than me LOL. Any ideas if there is a way to retrigger a request for an upgrade?
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Old Aug 18, 2022, 3:39 pm
  #487  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,986
Originally Posted by josephbanjo7
I'm just platinum and my flight from MEM-MIA for 8/20 cleared for an upgrade at 48 hours out.

My wife (platinum as well) and her mom both on a separate booking together are still pending for same flight with 4 open seats in first.

I will update the results, just a little confused at booking logic because we all booked at same time and my wife has more LP points than me LOL. Any ideas if there is a way to retrigger a request for an upgrade?
Maybe there was only one seat available for upgrade, so your wife and her mother were skipped (since two seats would have been needed), and you were next on the upgrade list after them, so you cleared. If that’s the case, they’ll only clear if two upgrades become available simultaneously.
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Old Aug 18, 2022, 4:00 pm
  #488  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by metallo
Maybe there was only one seat available for upgrade, so your wife and her mother were skipped (since two seats would have been needed), and you were next on the upgrade list after them, so you cleared. If that’s the case, they’ll only clear if two upgrades become available simultaneously.
Thank you for that explanation it helps a bunch. I am assuming that just because ExpertFlyer & AA still show 4 seats in first they may not be "upgradeable seats" as AA might still be trying to secure a last-minute purchase of first?

Also, I just wanted to say that I am aware that it's not a guarantee and if we want first we should just buy it. But I was more so just curious as to how it worked given the same status level and whatnot. I didn't want a situation where somehow it glitched and within 24 hours they all disappear to gold members. But it seems like because of the way the release seats that might be a possibility. I am assuming there is no real way to know how many seats might be actually left for an upgrade is there?
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 6:48 am
  #489  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,443
Originally Posted by josephbanjo7
Thank you for that explanation it helps a bunch. I am assuming that just because ExpertFlyer & AA still show 4 seats in first they may not be "upgradeable seats" as AA might still be trying to secure a last-minute purchase of first?

Also, I just wanted to say that I am aware that it's not a guarantee and if we want first we should just buy it. But I was more so just curious as to how it worked given the same status level and whatnot. I didn't want a situation where somehow it glitched and within 24 hours they all disappear to gold members. But it seems like because of the way the release seats that might be a possibility. I am assuming there is no real way to know how many seats might be actually left for an upgrade is there?
There is no way to see publicly the availability of complimentary upgrade space.

But as long as there are still seats for sale up front then AA will open up space for comp upgrades at some point, as a PLT this could happen anytime from T-48 hrs right up until boarding.

However looking at MEM-MIA now on 8/20, the flight is down to J1, meaning only 1 seat left for sale in business, so hopefully your wife and MIL were upgraded.
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 7:29 am
  #490  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
There is no way to see publicly the availability of complimentary upgrade space.

But as long as there are still seats for sale up front then AA will open up space for comp upgrades at some point, as a PLT this could happen anytime from T-48 hrs right up until boarding.

However looking at MEM-MIA now on 8/20, the flight is down to J1, meaning only 1 seat left for sale in business, so hopefully your wife and MIL were upgraded.
No upgrade for my wife and MIL. I can see that it's down to 1 seat as well but it's frustrating that at 27 hours out there were 3 seats in J and they weren't upgraded.

My wife is planning to call into the AA Advantage desk as this isn't the first time her upgrade seemly doesn't process when they are open seats. For anyone reading this isn't about the upgrade on a single flight but trying to understand the upgrade process better given she has more LP and inventory appeared there as 2 more seats cleared at the 24-hour mark. Anyways I figure this will go nowhere but just wanted to record a data point somewhere.
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 7:38 am
  #491  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,443
Originally Posted by josephbanjo7
No upgrade for my wife and MIL. I can see that it's down to 1 seat as well but it's frustrating that at 27 hours out there were 3 seats in J and they weren't upgraded.

My wife is planning to call into the AA Advantage desk as this isn't the first time her upgrade seemly doesn't process when they are open seats. For anyone reading this isn't about the upgrade on a single flight but trying to understand the upgrade process better given she has more LP and inventory appeared there as 2 more seats cleared at the 24-hour mark. Anyways I figure this will go nowhere but just wanted to record a data point somewhere.
Just because there are open seats does not mean that there is upgrade availability. As noted upthread, since your wife and MIL were on the same record, the system will only process their upgrades if 2 seats are released simultaneously, not 1 + 1. So it's entirely possible that she the MIL were #1 and #2 on the list, but if the system only releases one seat at time it will skip them over and go to the first person that is just requesting one seat.

Also just because 2 seats disappeared around the 24 hr mark does not necessarily mean that upgrade space was released, could have been just last minute purchases or buy-up offers in the app, etc.
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 7:47 am
  #492  
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Just because there are open seats does not mean that there is upgrade availability. As noted upthread, since your wife and MIL were on the same record, the system will only process their upgrades if 2 seats are released simultaneously, not 1 + 1. So it's entirely possible that she the MIL were #1 and #2 on the list, but if the system only releases one seat at time it will skip them over and go to the first person that is just requesting one seat.

Also just because 2 seats disappeared around the 24 hr mark does not necessarily mean that upgrade space was released, could have been just last minute purchases or buy-up offers in the app, etc.
Thank you for your response and the great points, is there a way in expertflyer or otherwise to tell which first seats are eligible for an upgrade? The theory of 1+1 not having 2 open at the same time makes a ton of sense. But if that's the case going forward would it be better to have 3 separate PNR and wait till my wife and my upgrades process (if space open) than add the MIL PNR to one of our reservations so it only needs to find 1 more seat then? Or is it just more likely that schedule changes, last minute booking into first or a Plat Pro or higher their bought a seat last minute.

We understand upgrades aren't promised just trying to understand if we could have done anything different on our end to have a higher success rate. But anyways thanks for all the explanations, I will share them with the wife.
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 8:14 am
  #493  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,972
Originally Posted by josephbanjo7
No upgrade for my wife and MIL. I can see that it's down to 1 seat as well but it's frustrating that at 27 hours out there were 3 seats in J and they weren't upgraded..
This happens to all of us especially DFW flyers. There are always F seats available but AA sells them via the app so usually there is none left in the upgrade pool (whatever it is) for elites. AA would rather sell those seats until they are all gone.
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Last edited by enviroian; Aug 19, 2022 at 8:29 am
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Old Aug 19, 2022, 9:28 am
  #494  
 
Join Date: Mar 2021
Location: DTW/EYW
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, United 1K, Delta Platinum ,Hilton Diamond, Mariott Gold
Posts: 275
EP 140k LP and 13-14k 2021 EQD
8/12
EYW-DFW a319 bought an upgrade for $161 (last available seat) 5 days before flight
DFW-TVC e175 cleared at gate #1/17 for 2 seats

8/15
ORD-CLT 738 cleared t-24
CLT-EYW 319 cleared t-100(canceled)
CLT-JAX 319, got put on the flight as group 7 was boarding so I didn’t get on the list, but it was 17 long and nobody cleared
JAX-MIA 319 phone agent put me in F.
8/16
MIA-EYW e175 cleared at gate. 1/4 on the list

8/18 (I booked this trip at 9pm the night before)
EYW-CLT 319 didn’t clear, #1/5 on the list
CLT-RDU 738 would have cleared but I was on standby so I couldn’t be added to UG list. 1-4 cleared and only #1 was EP. Also would have cleared the flight I was confirmed on, I was 2/11 and 4 cleared.
RDU-CLT 738 cleared at gate #1/18 for 1 seat.
CLE-EYW a319 cleared t-6
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keyw is offline  
Old Aug 19, 2022, 2:04 pm
  #495  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA 1MM EXP, DL Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), Aeroplan 75K
Posts: 1,144
Flights for the week:

BOS-ORD 8/17 last flight out (E175): Cleared at the window. Five open seats just before boarding with one on the list. I was able to upgrade my non-status companion.

ORD-BOS 8/18 8:45 pm (738): Bought up for $110 as it was J4 when I booked a week out. Seven on the list with one clearing at the gate.

JFK-BOS 8/19 10:30 (E175): Cleared at the window. We had four open seats with no one on the list. Someone self-upgraded a second family member who presumably couldn’t get the companion upgrade benefit.

JFK-LAX 8/19 3:30 PM: Purchased F outright as the fare difference was minimal. We were 6/10 before boarding with no one in the list and went out 10/10. J had 10 on the list with no one clearing.

EP with 325k LPs and 176k LPs remaining from 2021 EQDs.
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