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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

Ready2SailAway Apr 20, 2019 11:14 am

Will be flying LAX-HKG on AA then HKG-TPE on CX in 5wks, and need 14,381 base miles to make 2MM. Seats in Economy (Flexible fare) are available, but would have to waitlist for that 25K miles + $350 upgrade each way to Business for LAX-HKG on AA. I really don't want to fly LAX-HKG in Economy, so would prefer to purchase only when I know the upgrade is available.

So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
  1. Will I earn at least 14,381 base miles with AA & CX in Economy?
  2. What are the odds of upgrades opening up well in advance of my trip, so I can book in Economy then upgrade all at once? (there's currently around 30 open seats each way in Business)
  3. If waiting isn't a good option, then what are my chances for snagging those upgrades before my trip if I book in Economy now and waitlist? (Ticket price approx $2150, I'm AA Gold, 1MM, 2018: 37K EQM / $6K EQD, 2019: 0 EQM/EQD)

flyingeph12 Apr 20, 2019 12:05 pm


Originally Posted by Ready2SailAway (Post 31020304)
Will be flying LAX-HKG on AA then HKG-TPE on CX in 5wks, and need 14,381 base miles to make 2MM. Seats in Economy (Flexible fare) are available, but would have to waitlist for that 25K miles + $350 upgrade each way to Business for LAX-HKG on AA. I really don't want to fly LAX-HKG in Economy, so would prefer to purchase only when I know the upgrade is available.

So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
  1. Will I earn at least 14,381 base miles with AA & CX in Economy?
  2. What are the odds of upgrades opening up well in advance of my trip, so I can book in Economy then upgrade all at once? (there's currently around 30 open seats each way in Business)
  3. If waiting isn't a good option, then what are my chances for snagging those upgrades before my trip if I book in Economy now and waitlist? (Ticket price approx $2150, I'm AA Gold, 1MM, 2018: 37K EQM / $6K EQD, 2019: 0 EQM/EQD)

1. Most CX-marketed flights don’t earn any miles for economy. That said, LAX-HKG-LAX is 14,520 miles, so you should reach your EQM target (but not much room for error).
2. Probably not likely.
3. This will depend on when and on what day you are flying. It would help if you were flying around holidays when there is less business travel.

$2150 seems high for economy. Have you checked what the price of a premium economy ticket? Also, if business is essential, I would consider outright buying business from a different point of departure (e.g., YVR) and have a separate positioning ticket. I would also search flights to TSA, which opens up more options on JL.

Ready2SailAway Apr 20, 2019 12:11 pm


Originally Posted by flyingeph12 (Post 31020405)
$2150 seems high for economy. Have you checked what the price of a premium economy ticket? Also, if business is essential, I would consider outright buying business from a different point of departure (e.g., YVR) and have a separate positioning ticket. I would also search flights to TSA, which opens up more options on JL.

Thanks for the tip regarding different departure point.

Regarding JL, unfortunately I wouldn't earn enough base miles LAX-Tokyo-Taipei...

flyingeph12 Apr 20, 2019 12:26 pm


Originally Posted by Ready2SailAway (Post 31020422)
Thanks for the tip regarding different departure point.

Regarding JL, unfortunately I wouldn't earn enough base miles LAX-Tokyo-Taipei...

That’s true if you purchase economy, but PE and J will earn 1.5x EQMs (and J on AA-marketed flights earn 2.0x). If you are willing to spend $2850 + 50000 miles purchasing economy and upgrading (in the best case scenario), it might make sense to purchase PE or even outright J. At least consider all the possibilities.

mikhailm Apr 22, 2019 4:18 am


Originally Posted by mikhailm (Post 31009583)
CDG-DFW AA49 4/21 SWU cleared at T-100 hours as EXP with low EQD. J cabin looks quite open.

The 12-month rolling EQD was $16k-17k at the time.

Ready2SailAway Apr 24, 2019 11:14 pm

So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:

2. What are the odds of upgrades opening up well in advance of my trip, so I can book in Economy then upgrade all at once? (there's currently around 30 open seats each way in Business)


Originally Posted by flyingeph12 (Post 31020405)

2. Probably not likely.





Thanks for your insight -to keep within my travel budget, I booked Economy LAX-HKG-TPE, and Business for the return (actually cheaper than the other way around). For whatever reason AA wasn't allowing me to book this way previously, but on Monday this mixed itin opened up so I snagged it. Checked again since then and no longer available...

Called AA to waitlist for the outbound upgrade -there's still plenty of J inventory, so come on upgrade!

flyingeph12 Apr 25, 2019 12:12 am


Originally Posted by Ready2SailAway (Post 31034912)
So here are my questions -feedback & advise will be greatly appreciated:
Thanks for your insight -to keep within my travel budget, I booked Economy LAX-HKG-TPE, and Business for the return (actually cheaper than the other way around). For whatever reason AA wasn't allowing me to book this way previously, but on Monday this mixed itin opened up so I snagged it. Checked again since then and no longer available. Then called AA to waitlist for the outbound upgrade -there's still plenty of J inventory, so come on upgrade!

It is often the case that business class is cheaper depending on where you're originating. It's why, for example, YVR-LAX-HKG could be several thousand dollars cheaper than LAX-HKG.

Good luck with the upgrade. I've generally had pretty good luck with LAX-HKG, but I wouldn't expect the upgrade to clear until closer to departure.

SpaceBass Apr 25, 2019 8:25 am

Hey friends - anyone have an experience clearing LAX-HNL? I'm headed out tomorrow (Friday) as an EP and so far no upgrade. It's a three cabin plane and I'd really like to be in Biz. I'm trying to decide if its worth locking it in with miles today or risking the at-airport upgrade tomorrow. Any thoughts?

econometrics Apr 25, 2019 8:35 am


Originally Posted by SpaceBass (Post 31035914)
It's a three cabin plane and I'd really like to be in Biz. I'm trying to decide if its worth locking it in with miles today or risking the at-airport upgrade tomorrow. Any thoughts?

Are you sure about that? EF showing all 321's... which is 2-class. Biz and Economy.

Unless you're considering MCE as a separate class.

SpaceBass Apr 25, 2019 9:08 am


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 31035953)
Are you sure about that? EF showing all 321's... which is 2-class. Biz and Economy.

Unless you're considering MCE as a separate class.

I’d trust your EF search over my SeatGuru search - regardless, I’d like to be upfront :)

econometrics Apr 25, 2019 9:10 am


Originally Posted by SpaceBass (Post 31036074)

I’d trust your EF search over my SeatGuru search - regardless, I’d like to be upfront :)

What flight #? Here's what I'm seeing in EF right now... Looking improbable unless you're on the 5:15p or 7:45p departure.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...31d097a434.png

Ready2SailAway Apr 25, 2019 10:21 am


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 31036083)
What flight #? Here's what I'm seeing in EF right now... Looking improbable unless you're on the 5:15p or 7:45p departure.

What's an EF search? Looks helpful...

SpaceBass Apr 25, 2019 10:26 am


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 31036083)
What flight #? Here's what I'm seeing in EF right now... Looking improbable unless you're on the 5:15p or 7:45p departure.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...31d097a434.png

poop!
Im 283.
Thanks for checking for me! Much appreciated.

econometrics Apr 25, 2019 10:41 am


Originally Posted by Ready2SailAway (Post 31036338)
What's an EF search? Looks helpful...

ExpertFlyer.com.

Clay Clayton Apr 27, 2019 10:06 am

Update!
 

Originally Posted by Clay Clayton (Post 30703516)
I am sure you regular AA flyers are hating all of us promo gold folks but hopefully still willing to provide some advice.

Three of us are flying from RDU to MIA to SJU on 3/28/19 to catch a cruise. Our return will be from FCO to PHL and then to RDU on 4/19/19. The flights were ticketed by the cruise line and I presume are in the lowest category possible. These are ticketed on two reservations, mine and a separate one for my hubby and his mom. He and I are both promo gold until end of May and therefore have requested upgrades on the domestic flights using the ten 500 mile upgrade certs we each received. We have also requested upgrades on the FCO/PHL segment using 25K miles plus $350. Currently we have seat assignments on all segments in preferred economy (free) seats except I have purchased MCE for me on the long haul. So now my questions:

1. When I spoke with the AA rep to determine if our tickets were even eligible for the upgrades, she suggested checking on moving to MCE seats on the domestic legs prior to checkin - the presumption being that those higher on the food chain who get those seats for free now, might get upgraded to First and the MCE seats might become available for us to book at no charge. Recommendations on how long before our flight I should start checking for that would be appreciated.

2. If we get very (very) lucky and get all the domestic flights upgraded to First, I will end up using 5 of my certificates but hubby will be one short of enough to upgrade both he and his Mom. Is there a way AA would let me use one of mine to upgrade her? Should I try to change her reservation from being linked with his to being linked with mine after we finish the outbound legs? I presume AA won't let you do this after travel has started but thought you might have some suggestions. If not, does he have to buy the additional certificate prior to check in or will it give him the opportunity to do that once it is confirmed there is even a seat available?

3. If we again get lucky and our requested upgrade to Business goes through, I understand I will be refunded the cost of my MCE seat already purchased. Is this automatic or will I need to do anything to get it?

4. What am I forgetting to ask? Any recommendations on how to increase our chances for any or all of these upgrades will be most appreciated!

TIA,
Clay

Wanted to post a status report.
We were able to move to MCE seats for the RDU>MIA leg for free and to First (Lie flats on the 767) for the MIA>SJU leg at T-24 as the AA rep had suggested. Our points+cash upgrades (25K+$350) for the FCO>PHL leg cleared at T-24 (too late to select a meal😢 (#firstworldproblems) and the prepaid MCE was auto credited back to my card. One of the three free upgrades to first for the PHL>RDU leg cleared at T-24 for the FCO leg while the other two were on the upgrade list at #9 & 10. But they were able to move to free MCE seats for that short flight.

All in All about as good an outcome as we could wish for! Especially the ice cream sundae on the long flight.
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0c650acb2.jpeg
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...00ae17027.jpeg
Thanks to all who offered advice.


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