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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

econometrics Apr 9, 2019 1:40 am


Originally Posted by chitink (Post 30978422)
what's the time frame for upgrades been lately for LAX-HKG and reverse for an EXP?

Just one data point, but my HKG-DFW flight cleared about T30. And that flight was not very full in J at all.

spaige Apr 9, 2019 5:08 pm

I just booked a trip SFO- LHR in May, looking at layovers with the best chance of an upgrade (PLT) using miles and found an LHR-LAX Business seat on the return for only $200 more than the PE ticket.

I was told to try SFO-DFW route and this option popped up.

Outbound is SFO-JFK which I don't love the breakout, but didn't want to get stuck for a longer haul with no upgrade.

noobalert Apr 9, 2019 6:57 pm

Any thoughts on probability of SWU clearing for LAX to/from either HND or NRT on a Monday or Tuesday in May? I have EXP but very low rolling EQM/EQD and seems like they fly the 787, but there's two per day.

enviroian Apr 9, 2019 7:55 pm


Originally Posted by spaige (Post 30983423)
I just booked a trip SFO- LHR in May, looking at layovers with the best chance of an upgrade (PLT) using miles and found an LHR-LAX Business seat on the return for only $200 more than the PE ticket.

I was told to try SFO-DFW route and this option popped up.

Outbound is SFO-JFK which I don't love the breakout, but didn't want to get stuck for a longer haul with no upgrade.

That's a small delta between PE and J. What was the price of the ticket if I may ask?

I'd rather pay for the longhaul going west not east. If I can book a Y ticket and get MCE going east that's fine. After a few of the cocktails I"m out anyway lol The western route is approx an hour longer (to dfw and probably lax) so it is valuable to pay more for the J ticket.

JJeffrey Apr 10, 2019 4:45 am


Originally Posted by noobalert (Post 30983660)
Any thoughts on probability of SWU clearing for LAX to/from either HND or NRT on a Monday or Tuesday in May? I have EXP but very low rolling EQM/EQD and seems like they fly the 787, but there's two per day.

Like most AA longhaul routes your chances are good if you can be strategic about picking the flights. Flying on Tuesday typically helps your chances tremendously although Monday shouldn't be that hard either. If you're flexible on weeks, then just pick the flight and date that looks the most open in business and get on the waitlist. In typical AA fashion even if the J cabin is wide open it probably won't clear till 24-48 hrs. before.

GetSetJetSet Apr 10, 2019 9:52 am

LGA-PBI-LGA has been QUITE difficult this year, anyone else have any data points?

EXP

So far
LGA-PBI: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
PBI-LGA: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
LGA-PBI: #1 on the list, didn't clear (to be fair I had a companion and ONE seat opened, so #3 cleared)
PBI-LGA: #1 on the list, didn't clear, no one cleared

Have another roundtrip next week (LGA-PHL-PBI-LGA this time) and the legs into and out of PBI look totally sold out again. Not optimistic about clearing.

enviroian Apr 10, 2019 12:21 pm


Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet (Post 30985577)
anyone else have any data points

No, but I do have a suggestion.

Lose the companion.

:D

fastflyer Apr 10, 2019 1:22 pm


Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet (Post 30985577)
LGA-PBI-LGA has been QUITE difficult this year, anyone else have any data points?

EXP

PBI serves a high number of wealthy people -- between Palm Beach proper, Jupiter, Hobe Sound, Wellington, and Boca Raton, there are thousands of people for whom the segment price differential of, say, $400 for coach and $800 for domestic first, does not cause any burden. And because PBI is a second home and weekend resort market, many of these people travel by air.

You can either fly out of FLL, or do a connection via PHL, DCA, or CLT -- those flights tend to have more F availability IMHO than the LGA nonstop and the DFW and ORD flights.

Again, in my experience, DCA has the easiest shot at e-sticker upgrades out of PBI.

jlampert Apr 10, 2019 2:23 pm

My LAX > HKG (Tuesday) and HKG > LAX (Friday) upgrades both also cleared about T-30. There were about 10-15 J seats still open until upgrades started clearing...

pdac1975 Apr 10, 2019 3:09 pm

I'm looking to travel to Dublin from the Washington DC area but can also include PHL in September, preferably the week of Labor Day or around that time. I'm hoping to burn my SWUs but when booking I have NEVER seen it pop up as available for the TATL segment. What are my best bets for booking this trip to increase the odds of using my SWUs. This will be my first time using them having moved to AA from DL. Any opinions or suggestions are definitely welcome. If there is a better place to post this, just let me know. Also, when looking on Expert Flyer, what fare class am I looking for to use my SWUs?
Thanks!

GTITAN Apr 10, 2019 9:24 pm

More data points and good evening, 2 out of 3 SWU requests cleared at the gate this evening (April 10th) from MIA-GIG on AA 905 (where I am tying this reply from). My daughter and I cleared. My wife did not. Whooops. I offered her my seat as did my daughter.

Safe Travels

HofstraJet Apr 10, 2019 11:00 pm

Not sure if this is the thread to ask, but when TATLs have many open J seats a few days before departure, do they generally become available as Saver J seats or C seats?

JJeffrey Apr 11, 2019 4:22 am


Originally Posted by HofstraJet (Post 30987791)
Not sure if this is the thread to ask, but when TATLs have many open J seats a few days before departure, do they generally become available as Saver J seats or C seats?

Whether or not any sAAver business is released is completely hit or miss but definitely not something to be counted on. Seen it both ways.

But C space will for sure get released at some point, typically on a wide open flight the flood gates will open around T-36 to T-24 hrs before the flight.

GetSetJetSet Apr 11, 2019 9:58 am


Originally Posted by fastflyer (Post 30986297)
PBI serves a high number of wealthy people -- between Palm Beach proper, Jupiter, Hobe Sound, Wellington, and Boca Raton, there are thousands of people for whom the segment price differential of, say, $400 for coach and $800 for domestic first, does not cause any burden. And because PBI is a second home and weekend resort market, many of these people travel by air.

You can either fly out of FLL, or do a connection via PHL, DCA, or CLT -- those flights tend to have more F availability IMHO than the LGA nonstop and the DFW and ORD flights.

Again, in my experience, DCA has the easiest shot at e-sticker upgrades out of PBI.

As I am one of those people flying to a vacation home near PBI, going to FLL doesn't make much sense for me sadly haha. On my next flight down I am connecting through PHL, but it looks to be sold out as well. I can't drop the companion I'd rather fly in the back with her than up front alone ;). Am I remembering it wrong, or did LGA-PBI used to be served by a mainline A320? Maybe 2-3 years ago. Buying F takes all the fun out of it, what's the point of being EXP if not to buy coach and fly F!

fastflyer Apr 11, 2019 12:42 pm


Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet (Post 30989242)
As I am one of those people flying to a vacation home near PBI, going to FLL doesn't make much sense for me sadly haha. On my next flight down I am connecting through PHL, but it looks to be sold out as well. I can't drop the companion I'd rather fly in the back with her than up front alone ;). Am I remembering it wrong, or did LGA-PBI used to be served by a mainline A320? Maybe 2-3 years ago. Buying F takes all the fun out of it, what's the point of being EXP if not to buy coach and fly F!

This reminded me that another lever is to pick your routing based on the assigned equipment. The jungle jets have the best proportion of seats in F versus seats in coach, then the 737, then the 321. The 319 is the worst. Even with all of the competition from F purchases, I am nevertheless clearing around 60% of requested e-500 stickers out of PBI. I run more like 80% out of other airports. EXP with 20k annual spend.


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