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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

T. Sanderson May 24, 2019 7:19 am


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 31129428)


Currently showing no biz seats for sale, but 8 unassigned (open) seats. Sometimes AA seems to block out J seats for sale on this flight, then release a dump of them 24 hours or so before departure.

So, not looking good right now. But that couple possibly change. Keep an eye on it.


Originally Posted by saleen22 (Post 31129809)
Let us know if your upgrade clears. I'm on the same route on 5/29 and there are 5 unassigned seats but J3 as of now. Haven't seen any C inventory open up in weeks. Talked to a friend of mine who said this is a pretty tough one to upgrade on.

Yesterday I called the EXP line for something else and asked about my chances for this flight- was told the plane showed full in all classes.

I just now checked into the Flagship Lounge and was told there’s 4 open seats in J currently, so I’m thinking [MENTION=385316]econometrics[/MENTION] was on target with inventory being held back. Possible that there were 4 cancellations I guess- but either way I’m feeling good about my chances (currently number 2).

econometrics May 24, 2019 7:22 am


Originally Posted by T. Sanderson (Post 31134401)




Yesterday I called the EXP line for something else and asked about my chances for this flight- was told the plane showed full in all classes.

I just now checked into the Flagship Lounge and was told there’s 4 open seats in J currently, so I’m thinking [MENTION=385316]econometrics[/MENTION] was on target with inventory being held back. Possible that there were 4 cancellations I guess- but either way I’m feeling good about my chances (currently number 2).

Great news for you! ^

Yeah, I'm not surprised. This really has been happening a lot lately. Either AA is doing some odd rev mgmt with these flights, or there are a lot of full fare pax that cancel day of.

T. Sanderson May 24, 2019 8:31 am


Originally Posted by saleen22 (Post 31129809)
Let us know if your upgrade clears. I'm on the same route on 5/29 and there are 5 unassigned seats but J3 as of now. Haven't seen any C inventory open up in weeks. Talked to a friend of mine who said this is a pretty tough one to upgrade on.

Just came through! List shows that 2 cleared, although there’s about another hour before boarding so more people might get lucky. I’m low EQD for EXP. I don’t know my exact rolling total, but I qualified last year with a little over $13k; probably a decent estimate given my travel patterns.

T. Sanderson May 24, 2019 9:14 am

Number 9 cleared too. Maybe Premium Economy UG?

SeattleDavid May 24, 2019 12:46 pm

I am on 195 tomorrow (LHR-PHX). It is I7 and J7 and only 8 seats are assigned (it was 10 a week ago) and yet it is till C0. Today's flight was similarly empty and became C7 at about T-36 hours. Its strange how they decide about C inventory ... I really can find no rhyme or reason behind it, but I'm sure there is some.

Fortunately for me I was able to upfare to I for $250 and so I am one of those 8 assigned seats :)

golfer20 May 24, 2019 1:38 pm


Originally Posted by SeattleDavid (Post 31135434)
I am on 195 tomorrow (LHR-PHX). It is I7 and J7 and only 8 seats are assigned (it was 10 a week ago) and yet it is till C0. Today's flight was similarly empty and became C7 at about T-36 hours. Its strange how they decide about C inventory ... I really can find no rhyme or reason behind it, but I'm sure there is some.

Fortunately for me I was able to upfare to I for $250 and so I am one of those 8 assigned seats :)

american was just messing with you... it's C7 now

SeattleDavid May 24, 2019 3:17 pm


Originally Posted by golfer20 (Post 31135585)
american was just messing with you... it's C7 now

actually, I didn't mean tomorrow, I meant the day after! (not sure why I'm eager to go back a day early). Sunday is still C0 and only 8 seats assigned.

Gabrca May 24, 2019 5:00 pm


Originally Posted by Gabrca (Post 31121220)
Hi all, flying LAX-NRT this Thursday with a companion. 5 seats currently for sale in J. EXP with $35k rolling spend. What do you think the odds of clearing are?

Thanks!

Just as an update, the flight was zeroed out in all classes about 3 days before departure. At check in they said economy was oversold, but 5 seats remained free in J. Ended up being number 1 on the list out of 8. As predicted, 5 upgrades cleared but only exactly 60 minutes before departure.

golfer20 May 24, 2019 5:55 pm


Originally Posted by SeattleDavid (Post 31135842)
actually, I didn't mean tomorrow, I meant the day after! (not sure why I'm eager to go back a day early). Sunday is still C0 and only 8 seats assigned.

Yeah, I'm looking at the Sunday / Monday LAX-LHR AA136 flights myself, and same issue with C inventory remaining at 0 even with J7. Both flights also have over 20 seats unassigned. I think T-36 is the default setting AA uses for most international flights

saleen22 May 25, 2019 12:54 am


Originally Posted by T. Sanderson (Post 31134584)


Just came through! List shows that 2 cleared, although there’s about another hour before boarding so more people might get lucky. I’m low EQD for EXP. I don’t know my exact rolling total, but I qualified last year with a little over $13k; probably a decent estimate given my travel patterns.


Awesome! Glad you cleared. I just lost my status so I'm thinking my chances are grim but I'm really glad you cleared. Hope you enjoyed the flight.

SeattleDavid May 25, 2019 2:44 am


Originally Posted by golfer20 (Post 31136188)
Yeah, I'm looking at the Sunday / Monday LAX-LHR AA136 flights myself, and same issue with C inventory remaining at 0 even with J7. Both flights also have over 20 seats unassigned. I think T-36 is the default setting AA uses for most international flights

For LHR-PHX AA195 tomorrow (Sunday) it went C7 at about T-26. At T-25 there were still only 8 assigned seats in J, but by 9 minutes after check-in opened that had jumped to 19 seats assigned and still C7. The Premium Economy cabin has gone from 21 seats assigned to 10.

dfs24 May 25, 2019 2:54 am

Adding to the data point.

PP 9+ rolling.

LAX-JFK cleared at T-72 on memorial day weekend, sat red-eye. Kind of expected given that only 8 seats were assigned and it's sat night on a long weekend. Finally a chance to burn the stack of my 500miles upgrades on a companion.

bscooter26 May 28, 2019 12:52 pm

Hi all, I'm booked on AA38 on 8/2/19, MIA-LHR on AA 77W metal booked through BA. Currently seated in 32J on an N fare. I've been reading this thread quite a bit and seem to have gotten a decent idea of my chances of an upgrade with miles + copay given my current status (somewhere in the range of 25%?), but would like to hear some expert opinions since I rarely fly this route.

Platinum w/ $8k+ rolling EQDs, here's what EF shows:
F7 A7 J7 R7 D7 I7 W4 P0 Y7 H7 K7 M6
L4 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

Finsup72 May 28, 2019 1:06 pm


Originally Posted by bscooter26 (Post 31146613)
Hi all, I'm booked on AA38 on 8/2/19, MIA-LHR on AA 77W metal booked through BA. Currently seated in 32J on an N fare. I've been reading this thread quite a bit and seem to have gotten a decent idea of my chances of an upgrade with miles + copay given my current status (somewhere in the range of 25%?), but would like to hear some expert opinions since I rarely fly this route.

Platinum w/ $8k+ rolling EQDs, here's what EF shows:
F7 A7 J7 R7 D7 I7 W4 P0 Y7 H7 K7 M6
L4 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

It's too early to tell. AA dropped down to once-daily MIA-LHR now that BA is up to 3 daily flights. Friday night in the summer to Europe tends to be a tough upgrade from any US city but again, won't have a better sense of upgrade chances until T-48 really.

bscooter26 May 28, 2019 1:07 pm


Originally Posted by Finsup72 (Post 31146678)
It's too early to tell. AA dropped down to once-daily MIA-LHR now that BA is up to 3 daily flights. Friday night in the summer to Europe tends to be a tough upgrade from any US city but again, won't have a better sense of upgrade chances until T-48 really.

Thanks, I suppose I figured as much. Anything to look out for regarding inventory as I get closer?


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