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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

worldiswide Jun 18, 2019 8:37 pm

My SO and I are both EXP, with low qualifying spend. Did not clear ORD-LAX in February, but cleared ORD-CLT-SAV and return in May on all four flights (1 EXP 1 Gold on these flights). Waiting on Thursday flight to YYZ and ORD-DCA next month. OTOH, Gold daughter cleared on LAX-HKG Y-J in Feb a few weeks out and on day of departure for Y-J PVG-LAX and we cleared ORD-NRT in Jan 2020 at time of booking last month for 3 of us. We've been able to use 5 of the 8 SWU's between the 2 of us for TPAC and are still trying to thread the needle to find a good use for the last three.

Uzzar Jun 18, 2019 8:41 pm

Am I the only one that would like to see the "C availability" waitlists cleared in order of status instead of just whoever calls in first? If the AA system can work correctly for domestic upgrades, I'm not sure why it doesn't work for international. I don't fly international very much, but have been waitlisted for SWU's on 4 of 6 segments this year, with 2 of those 4 not clearing at all.

Emilylehr Jun 19, 2019 10:36 pm

DFW to LHR miles+copay upgrade chances?
 
I’m new to trying to figure out the likelihood of an upgrade, and I’m hoping people with experience on the DFW LHR route might have insight. Flying out on 6/29, booked in January and requested miles + copay upgrade immediately, Plat with medium rolling EQDs. On EF I see C0 but J7+ and I7+; there seem to be open seats in the teens in business. Looking at same flight on 6/22, it’s all zeroed out. Does this mean they sell that many more seats the week right before or that high elites are getting their SWUs processed?
I am trying to figure out if I should just forget I requested the upgrade and plan to be in my coach seat or if I should keep up my somewhat obsessive checking for C openings. Thanks in advance for any insight from your experience!

flyingeph12 Jun 20, 2019 1:23 am


Originally Posted by Emilylehr (Post 31221039)
I’m new to trying to figure out the likelihood of an upgrade, and I’m hoping people with experience on the DFW LHR route might have insight. Flying out on 6/29, booked in January and requested miles + copay upgrade immediately, Plat with medium rolling EQDs. On EF I see C0 but J7+ and I7+; there seem to be open seats in the teens in business. Looking at same flight on 6/22, it’s all zeroed out. Does this mean they sell that many more seats the week right before or that high elites are getting their SWUs processed?
I am trying to figure out if I should just forget I requested the upgrade and plan to be in my coach seat or if I should keep up my somewhat obsessive checking for C openings. Thanks in advance for any insight from your experience!

In general, AA will open up C space around 2 to 3 days before the flight. DFW-LHR generally is a tougher upgrade, I'd say, but you have the benefit of flying right before the 4th of July holiday, so there might be less business demand (that said, I imagine the next couple of weeks will be especially busy in London, not the least of which is because Wimbledon starts on 1 July). In my experience, AA will usually leave one or two seats open for sale up until departure.

Emilylehr Jun 20, 2019 5:29 am


Originally Posted by flyingeph12 (Post 31221328)
In general, AA will open up C space around 2 to 3 days before the flight. DFW-LHR generally is a tougher upgrade, I'd say, but you have the benefit of flying right before the 4th of July holiday, so there might be less business demand (that said, I imagine the next couple of weeks will be especially busy in London, not the least of which is because Wimbledon starts on 1 July). In my experience, AA will usually leave one or two seats open for sale up until departure.

Thanks for your reply! I am going for work and didn’t even think about Wimbledon! This helps me see I should just accept my coach seat as most likely. I appreciate your reply.

JJeffrey Jun 20, 2019 5:43 am


Originally Posted by Emilylehr (Post 31221700)

Thanks for your reply! I am going for work and didn’t even think about Wimbledon! This helps me see I should just accept my coach seat as most likely. I appreciate your reply.

I certainly wouldn't give up hope. Flying 4th of July week will greatly help your chances as normal paid business travel drops off substantially. And Wimbledon is a busy time in London, sure, but it's a 2 week event and it's not as if throngs of American tourists are flying paid business class back and forth to watch tennis.

Given that your flight is less than 2 weeks away, still showing I7 and a decent number of seats left, I'd say your chances are actually pretty good. But, as mentioned above, on a route like DFW-LHR AA generally won't release any C space till about 24-48 hrs before.

Emilylehr Jun 20, 2019 5:49 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 31221728)
I certainly wouldn't give up hope. Flying 4th of July week will greatly help your chances as normal paid business travel drops off substantially. And Wimbledon is a busy time in London, sure, but it's a 2 week event and it's not as if throngs of American tourists are flying paid business class back and forth to watch tennis.

Given that your flight is less than 2 weeks away, still showing I7 and a decent number of seats left, I'd say your chances are actually pretty good. But, as mentioned above, on a route like DFW-LHR AA generally won't release any C space till about 24-48 hrs before.

Thank you!

flyingeph12 Jun 20, 2019 9:54 am


Originally Posted by Emilylehr (Post 31221700)

Thanks for your reply! I am going for work and didn’t even think about Wimbledon! This helps me see I should just accept my coach seat as most likely. I appreciate your reply.

Sorry if my post was confusing. I wouldn't say you should give up hope yet. Although early July is a busy time in London, and DFW-LHR is a tough upgrade generally, the fact that you're traveling right before the 4th definitely helps. The fact that its J7 I7 with many open seats definitely means that there's hope. One other thing that might be indicative is how full MCE is, as that tends to indicate the number of elites (particularly EXP) who are hoping to upgrade. You might have a better idea around the middle of next week, as upgrades for EXPs and PPros ahead of you start clearing.

Emilylehr Jun 20, 2019 10:27 am


Originally Posted by flyingeph12 (Post 31222467)
Sorry if my post was confusing. I wouldn't say you should give up hope yet. Although early July is a busy time in London, and DFW-LHR is a tough upgrade generally, the fact that you're traveling right before the 4th definitely helps. The fact that its J7 I7 with many open seats definitely means that there's hope. One other thing that might be indicative is how full MCE is, as that tends to indicate the number of elites (particularly EXP) who are hoping to upgrade. You might have a better idea around the middle of next week, as upgrades for EXPs and PPros ahead of you start clearing.

Great idea! MCE is not even half full right now. Keeping my fingers crossed. Thank you!

AANYC1981 Jun 20, 2019 10:39 am

I was 11 of 26 on ORD-LGA recently......good times.

fastflyer Jun 20, 2019 11:02 am


Originally Posted by Uzzar (Post 31217030)
Am I the only one that would like to see the "C availability" waitlists cleared in order of status instead of just whoever calls in first? If the AA system can work correctly for domestic upgrades, I'm not sure why it doesn't work for international. I don't fly international very much, but have been waitlisted for SWU's on 4 of 6 segments this year, with 2 of those 4 not clearing at all.

The problem is that C availability serves mileage upgrades, BXP upgrades, and SWU upgrades. So different people (of any status) use various instruments to clear. This is one reason why ExpertFlyer is mandatory for AA elites. Even with the alerts, sometimes someone calls in before me (happened just last night) even for a lowly domestic BXP1 upgrade.

SeattleDavid Jun 20, 2019 11:59 am

Upgrade cleared on the wrong flight!
 
I think I may just have missed an upgrade because I was waitlisted for the wrong flight. I was originally booked on 292 (12.30am LAX-JFK) and three weeks ago changed that to 28 (11pm the day before). My upgrade for 292 just cleared (T-38), even though I have no reservation on it and it turns out that I wasn't on the list for 28 at all (which is now J0). I definitely feel cheated (a little) but I'm not sure there is anything I could have done about it.

Anyone else had an experience as weird as this – the phone agent got my hopes up by telling me my upgrade had cleared, but then it took her 30 minutes with her help desk to work out why it wouldn't confirm. She said she'd never known this happen before.

Reetmafreen Jun 20, 2019 7:32 pm

Just back from my UK travels

LAX-LHR June 12, requested a miles + copay for my wife and I. Looking at the seat map at the time of booking, as an PPRO, I knew I had no chance. Ended up 15 and 16 out of 22 on the upgrade list with EF showing J2. #1 cleared at the gate. #2 was a battlefield upgrade.

LHR-LAX June 19. I would have bet money on this one clearing. A week out, EF showed J7, R7, D7, I7, W7, (even though the PE seatmap was completely full, so AA are expecting to roll the cabin) and there were 30+ seats open in J. About 7 days out, I see I0 (same for the later 135 flight), so I’m guessing that AA just pulled the cheaper bucket based on advanced purchase rule. 2-3 days before the flight, still no upgrade and no EF alert for C space. About 30 hrs before my flight (4:30AM) I’m awake and check the AA app. I see the “your flight has changed” message and sure enough, bringing up the seat map, shows the J cabin. I have a choice of 26 seats, so pick a middle pair. About 5 mins later, the EF alert for my seats in PE goes off (I figured that they would free up if I was upgraded, so I would know about the upgrade fairly quickly without having to constantly check AA).

Seats continue to to fill up during the day as other upgrades clear. Wake up next morning to head to the airport and the upgrade list is empty and there are about 15 seats still open. Get to the airport and see 1 person on the list and they have cleared. With about 2 hrs till departure, the EF C alert I had set up finally goes off. Flight departed with 12 empty seats in J and 2 in PE. I have absolutely no idea why AA would wait so long to process upgrades on an obviously very business light load and why they waited until just before departure to post C space availability.

mikhailm Jun 25, 2019 10:33 am


Originally Posted by mikhailm (Post 31214124)
SWU upgrade Y to J on AA181 LAX-PEK on Monday June 17th. Cleared after I was already sitting in my Y seat. EXP with high teens rolling spend.

Similar deal on the return flight AA180 late Monday afternoon PEK-LAX. Cleared about an hour before boarding (J was sold out the week prior to the flight but AA appeared to have held a seat open).

Herb687 Jun 25, 2019 5:50 pm


Originally Posted by Aedion (Post 31201450)
Just a Plat but got a confirmed upgrade on dfw-lax for a Friday afternoon departure at T-27ish hours. I was not expecting that!

DFW-LAX isn't a particularly tough upgrade outside of key business hours. Across different markets, Thursday evening is generally heavier for business travel than Friday afternoon/evening. DFW-LAX has a lot of frequency and a ton of leisure demand too (including NK match fares). It's not the same kind of market as say DFW-ORD or DFW-CLT.


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