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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

flyingeph12 Mar 23, 2019 10:04 pm


Originally Posted by HLCinCOU (Post 30922260)
Why? To what purpose? If you waitlist at T-21 and it hasn't cleared at T-7, you're still have exactly the same ability to reassess loads or whatever else. How does waitlisting early hurt you?



As long as there is a nonzero chance of it opening up, there's an obvious benefit to having waitlisted. There appears to be absolutely no downside. If there is some downside I'm not seeing, what is it?

The downside, as a general matter, is you use 15000 points + $75 when you might have been able to clear a sticker upgrade. I mean, isn’t that why people post in this thread? If you were just going to pay for an upgrade, why would you post here?

And just so I don't have to repeat myself, I will quote what I said in my original post with regards to OP's specific situation:

That said, this is a Thursday evening redeye, and OP only has $15k rolling EQD. Under these circumstances, I would say in general a sticker upgrade is unlikely, even if it's J7, and therefore, miles + copay is probably the only way to clear an upgrade. I'd say it might be a different circumstance if it's the 3pm flight midweek, and OP has $25k EQD.

gates_2 Mar 25, 2019 5:10 pm

I'm A PPro and have a miles+copay upgrade in for AA175 tomorrow DFW-NRT
Expert flyer is showing:
J0 R0 D0 I0 W0 P0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0
G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Is this flight really completely sold out already, thus no chance?

DMPHL Mar 25, 2019 6:14 pm


Originally Posted by gates_2 (Post 30929264)
I'm A PPro and have a miles+copay upgrade in for AA175 tomorrow DFW-NRT
Expert flyer is showing:
J0 R0 D0 I0 W0 P0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0
G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Is this flight really completely sold out already, thus no chance?

Looks on EF like pretty much every seat is occupied, so I would assume that yes, it's sold out.

Reetmafreen Mar 25, 2019 6:23 pm

One can hope that there is the possibility of an “op up” in that Y an PE might be oversold and AA closed off selling J in order to the roll cabins. AA being AA will probably still tan you for the miles and copay though, despite the fact that might have to do this to avoid IDB.

airmarc Mar 26, 2019 7:21 am

Greetings all, Waiting for an SWU to clear MIA-LHR in BIZ and its T-36 hours. I expect this is normal for AA to hold out this long to sell seats. There are still 10 seats left for sale. Wonder what others experiences are. They seem especially resistant to clear (c) inventory on this route until the last minute. Just hoping for T-24. Lets see!

JJeffrey Mar 26, 2019 7:28 am


Originally Posted by airmarc (Post 30931059)
Greetings all, Waiting for an SWU to clear MIA-LHR in BIZ and its T-36 hours. I expect this is normal for AA to hold out this long to sell seats. There are still 10 seats left for sale. Wonder what others experiences are. They seem especially resistant to clear (c) inventory on this route until the last minute. Just hoping for T-24. Lets see!

Standard behavior for AA on a route like MIA-LHR, keep an eye on it today as you'll most likely see some C space open up around T-30 to T-24 hrs.

xal Mar 26, 2019 8:41 am

Long time lurker, but finally have a few DPs to add. Thanks to all for the info so far! PP, $1k EQD

3/19/19, AA 1366, Cleared @ T-72

3/21/19, AA 0504, Cleared @ T-48

Next up: AA 193 (4/4) and AA 192 (4/9). Have SWUs applied in both directions for me and Mrs. Xal. Currently J7 I7 and 25+ open seats on expert flyer. Seems this route has been hit or miss over the last couple months - any recent DPs out there?

jrb CO Mar 26, 2019 11:56 am

DFW - SCL next February. Looks like AA swapping to 788 on that route with only 20 business seats. Chance of upgrade for EP (and wife) with $18K spend?? I felt more confident on this route in the past with greater number of business seats.

Brainless69 Mar 26, 2019 12:52 pm

Not sure if this is the right thread but do U class awards ever change to C class awards? I’m guessing at the gate or t-24? I can see on my flights that there are 4 U class awards but 0 C class so hoping it will change soon so I can get my upgrade

dave_261 Mar 26, 2019 1:25 pm


Originally Posted by jrb CO (Post 30932185)
DFW - SCL next February. Looks like AA swapping to 788 on that route with only 20 business seats. Chance of upgrade for EP (and wife) with $18K spend?? I felt more confident on this route in the past with greater number of business seats.

Very small sample size, but I see a lot of J7 on DFW-SCL in the coming weeks (and no C), which is a good sign that business isn't selling out (again, very small sample size and seasonality may be different in Feb). That said, huge difference in the 30-seat 789 vs. 20-seat 788. EXP with $18k spend sounds like generally top 5 on the upgrade list, but 20-seat J cabin feels like it will typically be a day-of-departure upgrade, if at all.

In general, the reduced business cabins on the 772 and 788 will absolutely result in a lower upgrade rate.

airmarc Mar 26, 2019 1:31 pm


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 30931090)
Standard behavior for AA on a route like MIA-LHR, keep an eye on it today as you'll most likely see some C space open up around T-30 to T-24 hrs.

For all to know, it was cleared T-32

wonglam Mar 26, 2019 2:57 pm

I'm flying from LAX-HKG on AA193 in PE on March 31 with my mom, sister and baby (1 year old lap infant) . I'm on the waitlist for miles+copay upgrade to business and wondering what the chances of clearing.

Currently expert flyer showing:
F6 A6 J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L4 G7 V3 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Any frequent flyers on this route knowing the chances of clearing miles+copay upgrade? Not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances.

Thanks.

platbrownguy Mar 26, 2019 4:07 pm


Originally Posted by xal (Post 30931347)
Long time lurker, but finally have a few DPs to add.

Welcome to FT!


Originally Posted by wonglam (Post 30932869)
I'm flying from LAX-HKG on AA193 in PE on March 31 with my mom, sister and baby (1 year old lap infant) . I'm on the waitlist for miles+copay upgrade to business and wondering what the chances of clearing.

Currently expert flyer showing:
F6 A6 J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L4 G7 V3 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Any frequent flyers on this route knowing the chances of clearing miles+copay upgrade? Not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances.

Thanks.

Seat map looks pretty good if you're EXP... no idea re: infant.

DMPHL Mar 26, 2019 4:36 pm


Originally Posted by wonglam (Post 30932869)
I'm flying from LAX-HKG on AA193 in PE on March 31 with my mom, sister and baby (1 year old lap infant) . I'm on the waitlist for miles+copay upgrade to business and wondering what the chances of clearing.

Currently expert flyer showing:
F6 A6 J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L4 G7 V3 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Any frequent flyers on this route knowing the chances of clearing miles+copay upgrade? Not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances.

Thanks.

I'm not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances of a an upgrade, but I'd be careful that you don't have to pay a higher fee (percentage of cash fare) for your baby when you're upgraded.

Halo117 Mar 26, 2019 9:41 pm

Greetings...called to apply swu for non status family member from phx to hnl on march 31st. How do I ensure the agent applied the swu properly as the reservation does not mention anything? Chances of clearing if properly applied?

TIA


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