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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

VaBeachGirl Apr 11, 2019 5:30 pm

My J class SWU for Flt 106 JFK>LHR tomorrow cleared around T-34. This flight was showing pretty wide open in J for the past few weeks so I was optimistic that a Friday night flight would clear. EF is still showing J5.

HofstraJet Apr 12, 2019 6:27 am

I had a weird chance to watch an upgrade happen in real time.

Am booked on a MIA-PHX flight and all non-stops for the day are zeroed out (which struck me as odd) so I wasn't optimistic about this one.

I have EF alerts set up, but often check manually given the periodic nature of the way EF works.

Yesterday, I checked and saw my flight was J1.

I went to aa.com to see what the fare was to see if it was worth doing an upfare, but AA showed no availability. I went back to EF and ran the search again and now it was J0.

I joked to myself "wouldn't it be funny if I was just upgraded?" and I, with my foolish optimism, checked the AA app and, sure enough, I saw my seat assignment was gone! I clicked on the Upgrades button and it now showed confirmed!

No seat assignment was made, so I went ahead and took the only open seat (not sure if AA would have done that automatically, but wasn't going to risk it).

A few minutes later, I received the "Your upgrade is confirmed" email showing my seat assignment I just made.

EXP with 24K rolling EQD.

It's nice when the system works as it should (sad when it's the exception and not the norm).

GetSetJetSet Apr 13, 2019 5:26 pm

Regarding my PBI woes earlier, upcoming flight

PHL-PBI (cleared at 100 hours)

Surprising because the back of the plane shows maybe one or two seats open. I cleared into one of the 2 F seats that hadn't yet been sold. Figured i'd sweat it out while AA waited for someone to buy those last two F seats.

IADCAflyer Apr 14, 2019 5:59 am


Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet (Post 30997288)
Regarding my PBI woes earlier, upcoming flight

PHL-PBI (cleared at 100 hours)

Surprising because the back of the plane shows maybe one or two seats open. I cleared into one of the 2 F seats that hadn't yet been sold. Figured i'd sweat it out while AA waited for someone to buy those last two F seats.

Spring break week travel. Not a lot of elites around.

Tbooth3 Apr 15, 2019 8:09 pm

Interesting week...4/8 original plan DCA-LGA-TYS, cleared first two legs at 72 hrs.

Rebooked via the app (very conveniently I’d add) due to weather DCA-PHL-TYS, cleared on first leg at change and second flight only a main cabin.

4/12 TYS-LGA-DCA both cleared at 72 hours. Changed to TYS-CLT-IAD day before, second leg cleared at booking under 24h.

Arrived at TYS with weather delays affecting all flights, stood by on direct DCA flight. 51st passenger of 50 and back on TYS-CLT-DCA.

TYS-CLT has no more than ten non revs but what I gathered were very grumpy passengers. They upgraded everyone to the front though two disgruntled men sat in the first row of economy as protest. They had been constantly arguing with the gate agent about the actual weather and they didn’t deserve anything. I was the only one looking for a PDB and the FA delivered, interesting flight.

CLT was pretty backed up, but thankfully that allowed me to make my connection at #2 on the list, and 3 seats cleared at boarding. Weirdly, the door was shut with 1 seat open. The door was shut for almost 15 mins before they opened it and some guy sat down in 1D. Thought it was strange they didn’t move somebody up once they shut the door.

This week, I’ve already cleared for DCA-PHL-DCA. For regional flights my clearing rate is pretty high at PP, often at 72 hours.

mikhailm Apr 17, 2019 5:18 am

CDG-DFW AA49 4/21 SWU cleared at T-100 hours as EXP with low EQD. J cabin looks quite open.

econometrics Apr 17, 2019 5:59 am


Originally Posted by mikhailm (Post 31009583)
CDG-DFW AA49 4/21 SWU cleared at T-100 hours as EXP with low EQD. J cabin looks quite open.

Thanks for this. We don’t see a lot of data points on this route. But I’ve heard it can be a tough upgrade, especially in summer.

wireless_999 Apr 17, 2019 3:07 pm

DFW-HKG better to use copay miles or business extra cert?
 
Hello all. Booked just today PE DFW-HKG on April 28. IM a ppro 12 month eqd about 12k. I waitlisted copay miles but wondering if I should use a business extra certificate. Are the chances better with that?

Also flying back HKG-LAX May 2. Same PE and waitlisted. Thank you everyone.

platbrownguy Apr 17, 2019 3:37 pm


Originally Posted by wireless_999 (Post 31011533)
Hello all. Booked just today PE DFW-HKG on April 28. IM a ppro 12 month eqd about 12k. I waitlisted copay miles but wondering if I should use a business extra certificate. Are the chances better with that?

Also flying back HKG-LAX May 2. Same PE and waitlisted. Thank you everyone.

Chances are the same -- same C bucket needs to be available.

And Business Extra has two added wrinkles that lower your odds: (1) if C availability pops up and you have an ExpertFlyer alert set, the Meeting Services agents are much less likely to be able or willing to "push it through" compared to a regular AA agent on a miles upgrade; and (2) Meeting Services has limited phone hours, so if C pops up when they're closed and your waitlist doesn't clear automatically, you're sort of out of luck.

Of course, the odds of these events may not be very high, but they aren't issues at all with miles/copay.

iadisgreat Apr 17, 2019 6:56 pm


Originally Posted by HofstraJet (Post 30992091)
I had a weird chance to watch an upgrade happen in real time.

Am booked on a MIA-PHX flight and all non-stops for the day are zeroed out (which struck me as odd) so I wasn't optimistic about this one.

I have EF alerts set up, but often check manually given the periodic nature of the way EF works.

Yesterday, I checked and saw my flight was J1.

I went to aa.com to see what the fare was to see if it was worth doing an upfare, but AA showed no availability. I went back to EF and ran the search again and now it was J0.

I joked to myself "wouldn't it be funny if I was just upgraded?" and I, with my foolish optimism, checked the AA app and, sure enough, I saw my seat assignment was gone! I clicked on the Upgrades button and it now showed confirmed!

No seat assignment was made, so I went ahead and took the only open seat (not sure if AA would have done that automatically, but wasn't going to risk it).

A few minutes later, I received the "Your upgrade is confirmed" email showing my seat assignment I just made.

EXP with 24K rolling EQD.

It's nice when the system works as it should (sad when it's the exception and not the norm).

This happens to me all the time, not sure what the exception is - where I book within the window and J>1 I'm fairly certain I'm 100% upgraded prior to ticketing occurring or immediately after. My EQD isn't that high either.
​​​​​​

apschneider84 Apr 17, 2019 9:15 pm

Curious if there are any recent EXP who cleared LAX-LHR with mileage upgrade and/or BXP3? Traveling LAX to LHR in late May and back in early June. Have only flown these routes and been upgraded previously as a Plat so curious if EXP's are clearing on this route in advance...

SeattleDavid Apr 17, 2019 10:20 pm


Originally Posted by apschneider84 (Post 31012471)
Curious if there are any recent EXP who cleared LAX-LHR with mileage upgrade and/or BXP3? Traveling LAX to LHR in late May and back in early June. Have only flown these routes and been upgraded previously as a Plat so curious if EXP's are clearing on this route in advance...

I do this route regularly and have never not cleared - SWU or miles - and they've always cleared a few days before (or more). I had one recently that cleared at ticketing (4 weeks before the flight).

On the other hand I usually book 1-2 weeks before and can look to see how full the flight is - I do tend to avoid days when upgrades look unlikely, but you can't do this when booking more than a few weeks before (since most J sells in the 1-3 weeks prior).

dkc192 Apr 18, 2019 8:02 pm


Originally Posted by mikhailm (Post 31009583)
CDG-DFW AA49 4/21 SWU cleared at T-100 hours as EXP with low EQD. J cabin looks quite open.


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 31009667)


Thanks for this. We don’t see a lot of data points on this route. But I’ve heard it can be a tough upgrade, especially in summer.

Especially when they're putting a 788 with 19 J seats (20 less 1 for crew rest) on the route starting this summer! :td:

potus18 Apr 18, 2019 8:32 pm


Originally Posted by SeattleDavid (Post 31012597)
I do this route regularly and have never not cleared - SWU or miles - and they've always cleared a few days before (or more). I had one recently that cleared at ticketing (4 weeks before the flight).

On the other hand I usually book 1-2 weeks before and can look to see how full the flight is - I do tend to avoid days when upgrades look unlikely, but you can't do this when booking more than a few weeks before (since most J sells in the 1-3 weeks prior).

I also do this route regularly and have also never not cleared it. Though these days, if not weeks/months before, it's usually at or around T-36. But at T-36 I've observed it go from C0 to C7 (sometimes C4 on busy Friday flights) consistently.

Aedion Apr 20, 2019 10:24 am

Plat with 12 month EQD of 6.5k. cleared at T-48 for LAX - TUS 4/18 and about T-30 for TUS - DFW 4/18. Pleasant surprised to see I got 2/5 flights upgraded on my 2 day trip.
I have a miles + copay request for LAX - SYD 7/3. crossing my fingers! 13 J seats remain.


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