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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 21, 2018, 5:51 am
  #901  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dallas, Texas
Programs: AA Exp. Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum.
Posts: 1,186
I'm Plat Pro and my upgrade cleared on LIT-DFW at 100 hours which it usually does, no surprise there (short Eagle RJ flight). But when I went to select my seat I saw something I've never seen before and had a good laugh :

MorganB is offline  
Old Dec 21, 2018, 7:15 am
  #902  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
Originally Posted by MorganB
I'm Plat Pro and my upgrade cleared on LIT-DFW at 100 hours which it usually does, no surprise there (short Eagle RJ flight). But when I went to select my seat I saw something I've never seen before and had a good laugh :

My flight yesterday from PBI had 26 people on it - 5 in first and rest in coach on an E175. Haven't seen that in years.
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Dec 21, 2018, 12:56 pm
  #903  
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: DFW
Programs: AA, 1.5MM, GE
Posts: 213
Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
I was on the HKG-DFW AA 126 12/15 and had a milage + copay upgrade request in, was fairly high on the list so thought the odds of clearing was pretty good. There were 51 on the upgrade list. In the end those that cleared (from the upgrade list on the AA app) were #1 and #'s 19-28, completing skipping #'s 2-18. I don't understand how this would ever occur, why bother publishing an upgrade list at all if it is not going to be used? What do you have to do, keep calling the AA desk and asking or checking in with the gate agent? I have politely inquired at the gate in the past and the agent typically would just say they are working on it or watch the list, so didn't do that this time. I had a good seat for the flight but was looking forward to the (very rare) upgrade opportunity. I just don't understand the logic used where most of the top 20 on the list are skipped. Will be interesting what AA says about it.
Follow up: I sent AA a message and was pretty impressed that not only did they answer fairly promptly but called me after I noted that they really didn't answer my question, which was more about how the list works rather than my unique situation (their first answer was a generic "why others were upgraded over you" response but my question was more about why they did not follow their list). Basically they said it is complicated but after looking closer at this flight there were probably some given the upgrade over others out of order but that is done at the gate. I did not ask the gate agent about my status on the upgrade list as I figure they have more important things to do than answer the same question from 50 passengers, especially when they have a list that is supposed to be what they point to when discussing upgrade order. I guess it does pay to be a squeaky wheel? Anyway, the AA customer rep was polite as was I and I appreciated their responding to my question. Being platinum I still will be on the bottom of the upgrade lists, considering I got 2 upgrades in 2018 and both were on small market, regional flights.
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Old Dec 21, 2018, 3:11 pm
  #904  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 194
12/21:

DFW-ORD AA2418 (788). Did not clear, was #4 on the upgrade list at the gate.

ORD-BOS AA2682 (738). Cleared about 8 hours before departure.

I’m a PLT with about 3400 of rolling EQD (got the status through challenge).
BOSishome is offline  
Old Dec 21, 2018, 11:11 pm
  #905  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Originally Posted by goldmarch
I recently made EXP and I'm trying to figure out how the SWUs work. Is an SWU more or less (or exactly the same) likely to clear as compared to miles + copay?
The other parts of your post were well addressed, but nobody responded on this point, so: SWU and miles+copay are equivalent from a list order perspective.
HLCinCOU is offline  
Old Dec 21, 2018, 11:22 pm
  #906  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
Follow up: I sent AA a message and was pretty impressed that not only did they answer fairly promptly...
Did they give you a reasonable answer in said prompt response?

Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
...but called me after I noted that they really didn't answer my question,
Oh, so...I guess not. Well, hopefully their call cleared things up?

Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
Basically they said it is complicated but after looking closer at this flight there were probably some given the upgrade over others out of order but that is done at the gate.
Are you saying the person on the phone actually confirmed that the gate agents didn't follow policy when processing upgrades? Most of us here seem to think it pretty unlikely that policy was violated, and even if it was it seems really unlikely that a customer service rep would call and volunteer that information.

Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
I guess it does pay to be a squeaky wheel?
In what way did being a squeaky wheel pay? Did they give you something?

Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
Anyway, the AA customer rep was polite as was I and I appreciated their responding to my question. Being platinum I still will be on the bottom of the upgrade lists, considering I got 2 upgrades in 2018 and both were on small market, regional flights.
So....you appreciated them responding...when they apparently just blew you off but did in fact confirm that they did the list wrong. I have to say, nothing in this story makes much sense.
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Old Dec 23, 2018, 8:39 am
  #907  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Programs: AA - Executive Platinum 1MM, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Platinum
Posts: 74
I'm flying JFK-HKG on 12/25 connecting through LAX.
AA Platinum with > $6,400 EQD

AA133 - JFK-LAX - Full Fare Y - I think chances are slim / none
F6 A6 J1 D1 I1 Y5 B5 H5 K5 M5 L3 G5V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

AA133 - LAX-HKG - P Class - upgrade cleared over a month out, but have a friend traveling on the same itinerary with a linked record locator so will inherit my status, but hasn't cleared
F2 A0 J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P5 Y2 B0 H2 K2M2 L1 G2 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Update - J went down from 14 to 4

Last edited by interactfx; Dec 23, 2018 at 12:29 pm
interactfx is offline  
Old Dec 23, 2018, 10:48 am
  #908  
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP Marriott Titanium
Posts: 202
Thumbs up

12/25 AA2834 H-Fare DTW-DFW cleared right at T-100
songzm is offline  
Old Dec 23, 2018, 11:37 am
  #909  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: San Francisco, CA USA
Programs: AA-Executive Platinum, Hilton-Diamond, IHG-Platinum, Marriott-PPE, Alaska- MVP75K
Posts: 40
Wink SWU clear chance for US cities to/from EZE.

Happy Holidays!

I'm an AA EXP based in SF. My spouse and I plan to visit Buenos Aires during Veterans long weekend 2019. I still have 4 SWU on hand.
Based on your experience, just wondering which route is easier to clear SWUs. MAI-EZE, DFW-EZE or JFK-EZE (vice versa)?

Please help! Thank you.
Royaloaks is offline  
Old Dec 23, 2018, 11:58 am
  #910  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by Royaloaks
Happy Holidays!

I'm an AA EXP based in SF. My spouse and I plan to visit Buenos Aires during Veterans long weekend 2019. I still have 4 SWU on hand.
Based on your experience, just wondering which route is easier to clear SWUs. MAI-EZE, DFW-EZE or JFK-EZE (vice versa)?

Please help! Thank you.
First, take everything I say with a grain of salt...That said, I would in general favor JFK over MIA or DFW, since JFK is less of a captive hub and probably has fewer EXPs trying to burn SWUs. Additionally, I would say in general your chances of clearing on a 77W are better than on a 772 since there are more J seats (although I’m not sure there are any 77Ws to EZE any more).
flyingeph12 is offline  
Old Dec 23, 2018, 2:48 pm
  #911  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: DFW
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by Royaloaks
Happy Holidays!

I'm an AA EXP based in SF. My spouse and I plan to visit Buenos Aires during Veterans long weekend 2019. I still have 4 SWU on hand.
Based on your experience, just wondering which route is easier to clear SWUs. MAI-EZE, DFW-EZE or JFK-EZE (vice versa)?

Please help! Thank you.
Personally have booked last 2 trips DFW MIA LHR cause of ease of clearing SWU.
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shaddie is offline  
Old Dec 23, 2018, 9:13 pm
  #912  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP 3.8MM AC; UA Silver; Hyatt Globalist; Honors Diamond; Bonvoy LT TTM
Posts: 336
I'm flying LHR>LAX Jan. 1, and there are currently 19 seats open in J. I'm pretty surprised our upgrades haven't cleared, given it's a holiday, and so many seats are available. I'd think that there won't be many business travelers likely to purchase last minute J on Jan. 1. Are folks seeing SWUs clear at the one-week mark in circumstances like this one, or is it all over the map?
bcm0830 is offline  
Old Dec 24, 2018, 12:37 am
  #913  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,462
Originally Posted by bcm0830
I'm flying LHR>LAX Jan. 1, and there are currently 19 seats open in J. I'm pretty surprised our upgrades haven't cleared, given it's a holiday, and so many seats are available. I'd think that there won't be many business travelers likely to purchase last minute J on Jan. 1. Are folks seeing SWUs clear at the one-week mark in circumstances like this one, or is it all over the map?
I've never seen a magic "1 week" mark with regards to AA releasing C space, more like a magic 24-48 hrs before mark.

That said, for a route like LHR-LAX it's not surprising you haven't been cleared yet in spite of a wide open J cabin. AA's upgrade algorithms typically don't differentiate between a holiday and normal day IME.

Flying ORD-LHR last week, J cabin was showing wide open, only 5 of 28 seats booked for weeks out and of course zero last minute paid J travel at this time of year. No C space until around 30 hrs out when it went to C7 of course.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Dec 26, 2018, 10:53 am
  #914  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire Elite
Posts: 72
First year making EXP and looking forward to using the 4 SWUs.

Just booked a vacation for wife and I in April 2019 for the following segments. Want to use SWUs on the flights marked with asterisks below:

DEN-PHL
PHL-FCO*

FCO-ORD*
ORD-DEN

Nothing showing available at booking for SWUs on those legs, and EF has 0 C available (although seat map shows 16 biz seats unoccupied/unblocked on both long haul segments).

Anyone had any luck with getting SWUs cleared on either of those legs (for two people)? If so, how soon? And I have yet to call EXP desk to request the upgrades on those flight segments as I just bought the tix and they've yet to be "ticketed". As soon as they are, I plan to contact and request to be put on waitlist.

Thanks!
acoburn73 is offline  
Old Dec 26, 2018, 11:55 am
  #915  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM1K,AA EXP
Posts: 1,190
I've been looking at SFO-CDG flights for 2019 in March, May, June, late August---my usual flight dates, more or less. AA is showing only stuff like SFO-LAX upgrades as available now. Couldn't find a single international upgrade available at booking, except for a couple of CDG-PHL in Jan. Is anyone else having this problem? I would
like to book and be done now, especially since a couple of friends have offered me their expiring SWU's, as well.
willie--wonka is offline  


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