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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

Old Dec 13, 2018, 12:23 pm
  #856  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: PHL
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, Owner of 2,000 TWA shares
Posts: 812
Seems to be streaky for me. 9/17 the last month or so, mostly t-cons. All upgrades coming 100 hrs out. Just snapped an 0-4 run (LAX-PHL, PHL-MCO, MCO-PHL, PHL-LAX) last night on an LAX-PHL. My question: Are upgrades harder towards the end of the year as people are making status and those who aren't re-qualifying haven't been dropped yet? WIll it thin out in February, after the Jan 31 expirations?
Uncle Nonny is offline  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 1:12 pm
  #857  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,938
Originally Posted by Uncle Nonny
My question: Are upgrades harder towards the end of the year as people are making status and those who aren't re-qualifying haven't been dropped yet? WIll it thin out in February, after the Jan 31 expirations?
Probably. I think the effect is more pronounced in January, when business travel resumes, and folks with expiring SWUs burn them on almost any flight just so they won't go to waste.
golfingboy likes this.
Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 1:59 pm
  #858  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU

I'm one of the big beneficiaries of the new policy. I typically book no more than 48 hours out, and tend to fly lots of regional routes that have a high price/mile; before the EQD change I cleared less than half the time, and often by the time I booked J would already be full or close to it because they had already processed some upgrades. That was sort of a drag. I knew my behavior was exactly what the airline really wanted...but they were giving all the upgrades to flyers who were behaving in ways much less beneficial to AA. The system effectively had a clear bias in favor of the people who paid the least for their tickets. The new system strikes me as a lot more sensible. Of course my self-interest aligns there too (2018 upgrade success >80%), so go figure. But I just wanted to point out that there are good effects for a lot of people from these changes.
I wholeheartedly agree, they should reward customers who exhibits behavior that is more beneficial to AA. In my case, there are still 9 seats for sale out of 12 with only 4 MCE seats booked (no clue if the other two are elites waitlisted for an upgrade). Theoretically, they could upgrade all four of us and still have 5 seats left to sell.

The route is DCA-MSY on a Saturday morning. So a combination of these factors is what made me wonder. All of the three flights on Saturday all have J7+ seats left.

Regardless, I agree where it makes sense in certain markets that sees a lot of last minute purchases (whether Y or J) upgrades should be held back to a certain degree to ensure that the right customers are rewarded, both paid F and higher value elites.

Originally Posted by Stripe
Maybe the old bug has returned. I am also on a DCA-DFW flight on Saturday evening where only 4 of the 16 F seats are occupied, and no one has been upgraded. (It was 4 of 16 before the CK window opened.) EF shows J7 I7 Y7 and C3. I am also EXP. I am traveling with a companion on the same PNR and don't want a random assignment at the last minute to have us in wildly different seats. Plus be able to select a meal. It's very frustrating. Nothing wrong with our reservation as we both got upgraded on the connecting DFW-AUS flight at T-100.

The only plausible explanation is that Dec 14 is the target date for Congress to adjourn and maybe AA is keeping the F cabin clear on that weekend to accommodate last minute purchases.
I have a companion on my reservation, I do wonder if that is possibly causing the upgrade process to hang. I was a platinum when we booked the trip two months ago and became EXP since then, so this could have messed up the coding? I dont know

Although your congress comment does make sense since I am flying DCA-MSY and could be a plausible reason.

Originally Posted by aacar
On many of my flights this year, I've been getting upgraded at right around T-26.5, regardless of the number of available seats.

It's at least early enough to allow for meal selection, but can be annoying when it goes down from J7+ to J1 and I'm pretty much stuck in the seat I was assigned.
I do recall AA pushing through upgrades right before OLCI so definitely will check around 26 hours out. I am a little worried about the seats too since wed like to be seated together. We will see.

Originally Posted by Uncle Nonny
Seems to be streaky for me. 9/17 the last month or so, mostly t-cons. All upgrades coming 100 hrs out. Just snapped an 0-4 run (LAX-PHL, PHL-MCO, MCO-PHL, PHL-LAX) last night on an LAX-PHL. My question: Are upgrades harder towards the end of the year as people are making status and those who aren't re-qualifying haven't been dropped yet? WIll it thin out in February, after the Jan 31 expirations?
Upgrades tend to be somewhat harder towards the end of the year. Its not just SWUs but also BusinessExtra upgrades that typically expire on 12/31. I suspect this week is the last week of the typical business travel routine for many until 2019, so demand might be a little higher.
golfingboy is offline  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 2:58 pm
  #859  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
So my MSY-DFW-LIM flight is now down to J5 R5 D1 I0. Seat map shows 5 empty, and also 2 blocked (they've been blocked the whole time). Just out of curiosity, anybody have an idea what those are blocked for? It's a 757.
HLCinCOU is offline  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 3:31 pm
  #860  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU
So my MSY-DFW-LIM flight is now down to J5 R5 D1 I0. Seat map shows 5 empty, and also 2 blocked (they've been blocked the whole time). Just out of curiosity, anybody have an idea what those are blocked for? It's a 757.
Dont quote me on this but might be pilot rest? Outbound one set flies then they swap for the return.
golfingboy is offline  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 6:53 pm
  #861  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,562
My flghts for this week:

DEN-CLT, A321, Sunday morning (Dec 9) - had not cleared as of Friday morning at which point I moved myself to a routing through PHL to avoid snow mess in CLT
CLT-DCA, A319, Sunday afternoon - cleared at 100 hours, but ended up not talking the flight (see above)
------
rebooking: DEN-PHL, A321 and PHL-DCA, E75 - Did not clear, all seats full, DEN-PHL probably because of CLT IROPS
------
DCA-ORD, 738, Tuesday around noon, cleared at ~26 hours
ORD-DEN, 738, Tuesday afternoon, cleared at 100 hours

Around 21,000 EQD
bse118 is online now  
Old Dec 13, 2018, 7:33 pm
  #862  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,115
SFO-JFK on Sunday morning cleared before ticketing. Booked at ~ T60 and a complimentary upgrade cleared.
Antarius is online now  
Old Dec 14, 2018, 6:41 am
  #863  
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Dallas
Programs: AA ExPlat, Marriott Ambassador, Hilton Gold, Hertz PC
Posts: 121
Booked DFW-BOS yesterday for 12/16. DFW-BOS cleared instantly, return only has 3 first class seats open. Fingers crossed I clear. 21k EQD Plat Pro currently. Will be exec plat at the end of the trip.
adunker is offline  
Old Dec 14, 2018, 8:05 am
  #864  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
And the upgrade for DCA-MSY tomorrow cleared at T-26.5 on the dot.

However, despite having two sets of two F seats open on the right side AA decided it was best to clear us into completely opposite seats with me in 4A and my companion in 3F
golfingboy is offline  
Old Dec 14, 2018, 9:49 am
  #865  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
Last flight of the year for me. Left Wednesday morning DCA-PHX-ONT and returning today same routing. 0/4 as PP with about $11k. On both dca segments the list was 25-35 deep and I was never higher than 5 (no one cleared at the gate). I figured Friday would be very tough but thought Id have a chance Wednesday, flight was also not nearly full. Same trip planned for January hope I have better luck.
Tbooth3 is offline  
Old Dec 14, 2018, 9:53 am
  #866  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
Originally Posted by golfingboy
And the upgrade for DCA-MSY tomorrow cleared at T-26.5 on the dot.

However, despite having two sets of two F seats open on the right side AA decided it was best to clear us into completely opposite seats with me in 4A and my companion in 3F
Ive had this happen several times where I get 3F and she gets 6C or D on the same PNR when both partner seats are open....never makes any sense to me.
Tbooth3 is offline  
Old Dec 14, 2018, 3:43 pm
  #867  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 227
5/5 for complimentary upgrades this week as PPRO out of CLT with ~18k rolling EQD.
thedeeg is offline  
Old Dec 15, 2018, 9:02 am
  #868  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: ATL
Programs: DL - DM, Charter KM; Marriott Ambassador
Posts: 1,353
Whats the best European city to clear SWU into? Will be traveling in April and was hoping to find something available AT booking but have been striking out. EP w/ $25K EQD but would rather not chance it.
MichaelKade is offline  
Old Dec 15, 2018, 9:52 am
  #869  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: MCO/FLL
Programs: AA-gold(MM); Marriott-Lifetime Titanium Elite; Hilton-Gold;
Posts: 503
Please educate me. Currently Plat Pro but will drop to Gold in 2019. Interested in Booking a one way award ticket for daughter and I. CDG-MIA in late May. AA Saver economy is available now but not a Business seat which I prefer. If I book now for both my daughter and I to secure better seats due to my status, if a Business saver opens up closer to the date, can I "change" to the better class without a change/cancel fee? If no fee, can I just change my seat and leave my adult daughter in coach? I know when I use to purchase tickets for two of us on one PNR and request and upgrade using miles and copay, I could not split the PNR if only one upgrade cleared. Is this the same as full award bookings? If so, she is on her own.

Thank you.
trekker954 is offline  
Old Dec 15, 2018, 2:27 pm
  #870  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,938
Originally Posted by golfingboy
And the upgrade for DCA-MSY tomorrow cleared at T-26.5 on the dot.

However, despite having two sets of two F seats open on the right side AA decided it was best to clear us into completely opposite seats with me in 4A and my companion in 3F
Same for me on my DCA-DFW. And of course we got 3E and 4E. Fortunately there were still two seats open. One was 3F, so it's the bulkhead for us. You would think that their algorithm could find some way to seat together two folks on the same PNR.
Stripe is offline  

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