eponymous_coward

golfingboy

Definitely - I think there was a misunderstanding on what I meant in my post. Any carrier could move in matter of months if they want to its not a 2-3 year ordeal (case in point DL at LAX), but things are very different for BA/IB given the real estate investment they have at JFK. Hence why I said BA/IB is a different story 2 posts ago. What I am implying is that they are not going anywhere soon with the new lease agreement in place, but once it expires it can go many different ways.

As you mention they definitely will want to amortize the cost which means a minimum of 5-7 years before they make a decision. The probability of PANYNJ saying we want to rebuild T7 in 2022 or 2025 when the BA lease expires is slowly increasing. For all we know maybe BA/IB will end up being the anchor tenant in the new T7 and chose to stay.

For the other OW carriers - making any move will be more simple and can be done in a matter of months if there is a desire to move.

At the end of the day T8 is a ghost town relative to the other JFK terminals and AA is not fully using the resources available at T8. There will be a point in the future where some new market entrants (or a current competitor grows), Oneworld or not, will be put into T8 unless AA manages to convince some of their chums to move over to T8 to free up space at a different terminal. I could be wrong and AA wouldn’t care if UA uses T8 if they ever re-enter the JFK market, but my hunch tells me they’d prefer to keep UA or any key competitor out of T8.

uxb

FlyerWx

I definitely like JFK more than PHL, but unfortunately (for us), AA execs have commented on the strength of PHL and CLT due to their profitability

AA has had to compete much more in JFK, LAX, and ORD. As Vasu Raja and his team continue to look at the JFK routes, I think we'll be left with only the profitable ones.

tphuang

it seems like based on JonNYC recent tweets, there will be more cuts coming. Be interesting to see what else they plan.

As for BA, there is quite a good chance they will be out of T7 when their lease is up.

jmr50

They're been talking about its profitability at investor days and interviews for 3 years, and expanded from an 11 aircraft to 34 equipped that way. All signs suggest it's been the main driver of profitability these last few years at Jetblue:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/...es-growth.aspx
"This week, JetBlue provided the most detail it has ever offered to quantify the financial impact of Mint. Before Mint's introduction, JetBlue's New York-Los Angeles route was significantly less profitable than the system average -- and the New York-San Francisco route was even worse.

However, in the course of two years, the LA route's profit margin improved by 17 percentage points relative to the system average. The San Francisco route's profit margin improved by 18 percentage points. This has made them two of JetBlue's most profitable routes."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...nscript?page=3
"Our most mature Mint routes again saw RASM outperformance system in the first quarter."
"But I will say that Mint's been wildly above our expectation."

Seems like -- from their on-the-record public statements -- that Mint is making bank for them. I wonder if AA's domestic first product could do the same?

a330boston

I've been wondering for a while as to why they recently started doing DEN from JFK? Was it just to prevent too many New Yorkers from ditching AA at once?

Austin787

Probably slot-squatting, to keep JFK slots away from competitors.

uxb

So AA has to compete. They already put out a better product than DL and have caught up to UA. I don't know why these companies are scared of competition. How are they expecting to grow if they don't compete?

Adelphos

I know it was on a holiday, but flew JFK to DEN on July 4, got an upgrade for myself and my companion, and there were six empty F seats. I'm not sure how much longer this route will last, especially given they don't offer anything but a redeye back. At this point, my main reason for trying to keep AA status is fairly easy upgrades on certain routes I travel. Many of these upgrades are achievable with Gold status.

AANYC1981

Well just saw we're getting Saturday only service LGA-EGE on a..................A319. Sounds like a miserable flight on that plane type (assuming this is on a LUS bird).

CHOPCHOP767

YMMV, but I'll take an LUS A319 over a CRJ200 any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. LGA is such a CRJ farm, I'm kind of surprised AA didn't think they could get away with offering that a/c for the service...

tphuang

exactly, number 1 reason to be an AA status holder in nyc, for the ugprades =)

AANYC1981

I was shocked I didn't get upgraded yesterday MIA-JFK. There were 14 seats open on the 763 when I booked around a week ago

teemuflyer

Perhaps because it was the last day of a long 4th of July weekend. Heavy travel day..