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LAX Growth Announcement Week of 18 Jan 2016

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Old Jan 15, 2016, 6:03 pm
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Last edit by: MAH4546
New routes announced so far:

DFW-BZN, daily CR9, winter & summer seasonal
DFW-BOI, daily A319
DFW-SUX, daily ERJ145
DFW-SWO, 2x daily ERJ145

LGA-MVY, 3 weekly CR2, summer seasonal
LGA-BGR, 2 weekly CR2, summer seasonal
LGA-MYR, 2 weekly CR2, summer seasonal
LGA-ACK, 3 weekly ERJ170, summer seasonal
LGA-SDF, 1 daily CR2

CLT-SJC, daily A319, eastbound redeye, summer seasonal

ORD-SMF, double daily 738 including one eastbound redeye

LAX-SEA, 5 daily (4x A319 / 1x ERJ-175)
LAX-PDX, 3 daily ERJ-175
LAX-MSP, 2 daily A319
LAX-MSY, 1 daily 738
LAX-MCI, 1 daily A319
LAX-OMA, 1 daily A319
LAX-BDL, 1 daily 738, eastbound redeye
LAX-ANC, 1 daily, A319 seasonal
LAX-DRO, 1 daily, seasonal
LAX-RDU, 2nd daily, summer seasonal, A319


Route CUTS:
PHL-SMF
PHX-YYC
PHX-YEG (moving to winter seasonal)
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LAX Growth Announcement Week of 18 Jan 2016

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Old Jan 13, 2016, 7:37 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
Originally Posted by Tracer_SEA
It seems odd to me that LAX-HKG is a great use of their relatively limited 77Ws, especially given that CX is at 4X daily with a better product. They don't have a JV with CX for the route, right?
No, no CX JBV/ATI.

As far as utilization of the 77W, I think we'll find an extremely clever and "tight" use of this 77W-- involving other LAX 77W(s)-- such that they get a lot of bang for the buck, utilization-wise, relatively speaking. If that's "enough" to make this route work in light of the direct competition from CX, that remains to be seen. But in terms of maximal utilization, they've definitely got that nailed on this one.
Nailed it. The LAXHKG will slide in perfectly with the DFWHKG and LAXSYD or LAXLHR. Essentially scheduled this would be just 1 extra frame (not 2) and actually slide into a gap in the CX schedule
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 7:44 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Wow, lots of extended middle fingers to AS: SEA, PDX, PVR, SJO are all served by AS out of LAX. SJO is a pretty new route out of LAX too.

So much for partnership...
Emphasizing that MAH4546 described those as guesses, not implying any inside knowledge, but....

I don't think AA flying their own metal to nearby major cities from one of their major hubs could fairly be interpreted as a middle finger at all. AA and AS remain, by law, competitors, and AA can't coordinate schedules with AS to make long haul connections at LAX optimally timed. LAX-SEA and LAX-PDX are rather glaring holes in the AA network out of one of their major hubs, a hub which serves a very large O/D market and has at least a few unique long haul connections in the AA network (SYD and AKL being obvious current or near future ones). Of course, I said that about DL when they started their own LAX-SEA flights, which of course did presage major middle fingers to come, but I think it's pretty safe to say that AA won't start a hub/focus city operation in SEA or otherwise robustly compete with AS.

AS started SEA-DFW service a few years ago, and that certainly wasn't interpreted as a middle finger to AA; ditto for AS starting SEA-JFK. And AA and AS have long had overlapping service on SEA-ORD.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 7:53 am
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by JonNYC

As far as utilization of the 77W, I think we'll find an extremely clever and "tight" use of this 77W-- involving other LAX 77W(s)-- such that they get a lot of bang for the buck, utilization-wise, relatively speaking. If that's "enough" to make this route work in light of the direct competition from CX, that remains to be seen. But in terms of maximal utilization, they've definitely got that nailed on this one.
Indeed, utilization wise, this could be very interesting. They could do a DFW-HKG-LAX-LHR-JFK with minimal ground time.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:00 am
  #34  
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Originally Posted by imapilotaz
Nailed it. The LAXHKG will slide in perfectly with the DFWHKG and LAXSYD or LAXLHR. Essentially scheduled this would be just 1 extra frame (not 2) and actually slide into a gap in the CX schedule
I have SO little understanding of these things-- but I know that you certainly do-- I was only told "very impressive utilization!" but that sounds even more complicated (in a good way) than I would have guessed! Interesting!

Originally Posted by Djokison
Indeed, utilization wise, this could be very interesting. They could do a DFW-HKG-LAX-LHR-JFK with minimal ground time.
Wow, I don't even know how people figure this stuff-- but, yeah, sounds like something like that!
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:05 am
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by imapilotaz
Nailed it. The LAXHKG will slide in perfectly with the DFWHKG and LAXSYD or LAXLHR. Essentially scheduled this would be just 1 extra frame (not 2) and actually slide into a gap in the CX schedule
Makes sense given how long the current 77W sits on the ground at HKG (~19 hours).

So this might be something like:

depart HKG 9pm
arrive LAX 6:30pm (then on to LHR)

depart LAX 1:30am
arrive HKG 9am

Then HKG would see 2 AA 77W planes, one from 9am-1pm and the other from 6pm-9pm.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:12 am
  #36  
 
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Timing would be perfect for US-based travelers who finish the working day and head out to HK, count me in for my 1-2 paid J travels to HK, would be an excellent use of SWU's. The AA Asia network is really coming along, gone are the days when NRT was the only outpost.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:17 am
  #37  
 
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LAX was my home airport for 12 years and good to see AA is expanding LAX operation, eventually expanding to T5. AA was always weak in West Coast. Acquired AirCal to expand West Coast presence, but as Southwest grew West Coast operation what once was AirCal quickly disappeared. AAdvantage program partner with Reno Air filled that gap after that and eventually acquiring Reno Air.

But once what was Reno Air has disappeared again and become weak on West Coast. Alaska Air being AAdvantage partner sure filled that gap. When I lived at Los Angeles I took vacation to Alaska by cashing my AAdvantage miles on Alaska Airlines first class, that was good use of my miles.

Take this conversation of LAX expansion one step further, then in long term what will happen to PHX hub which is located close to LAX?

UA-CO merger, ORD and CLE were close to each other and eventually CLE hub was closed. Large operation at EWR and UA decided to completely move out of JFK.

DL-NW merger, DTW and CVG were close and CVG hub closed, and also ATL and MEM were close and MEM hub closed down.

In long term, will AA focus more on LAX than PHX? Will LAX and PHX co-exist as LAX as international connection point with OneWorld partners and PHX as connection point for domestic passengers? I guess same argument as will JFK and PHL can co-exist?
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:19 am
  #38  
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Originally Posted by AlwaysAisle
...In long term, will AA focus more on LAX than PHX?
Well, yes!
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:40 am
  #39  
 
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787 makes more sense for LAX-HKG. Maybe this could be the first route for the 787-9. 787 is less expensive than a 77W, and its lower capacity is smaller risk for AA.

Originally Posted by AlwaysAisle
In long term, will AA focus more on LAX than PHX? Will LAX and PHX co-exist as LAX as international connection point with OneWorld partners and PHX as connection point for domestic passengers? I guess same argument as will JFK and PHL can co-exist?
LAX doesn't have enough space to absorb the PHX hub, so I think they co-exist. LAX serves as a Trans-Pacific gateway, prioritizing domestic-international connections. PHX handles domestic connections in the western USA.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:47 am
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by SJC AA
Makes sense given how long the current 77W sits on the ground at HKG (~19 hours).

So this might be something like:

depart HKG 9pm
arrive LAX 6:30pm (then on to LHR)

depart LAX 1:30am
arrive HKG 9am


Then HKG would see 2 AA 77W planes, one from 9am-1pm and the other from 6pm-9pm.
That would be nice. From Austin, I could catch an evening flight to LAX, and easily make the connection. On return, use the HKG-DFW option to get home at a reasonable time..
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 8:55 am
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Austin787
787 makes more sense for LAX-HKG. Maybe this could be the first route for the 787-9. 787 is less expensive than a 77W, and its lower capacity is smaller risk for AA.
It's a 77W
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 9:12 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
It's a 77W
Yeah, the HKG route needs F to be competitive.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 9:14 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer
How on earth is AA going to be doing that? 50 flights is a lot for a terminal that is very crowded.

Either they're doing flights out of the bus terminal or a lot more people are going to be experiences the wonders of T-6...
When the T4-TBIT bridge opens, AA will be able to run departures ex-TBIT starting around 5am. Right now they can only start around 8am due to security opening times. This will enable up to 10 new daily departures across 5 gates.

2 new gates at T4 will enable as many as 18 new daily departures.

1 new gate at T6 (to compensate for the loss of the one eagle remote gate), bringing the total to 5 gates there, will add up to 8 new departures.

The balance, about 15, is supposedly expected to come from better utilization of the Eagles Nest.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 9:15 am
  #44  
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
My belief at this point is the the announcement will -not- be this week
Interesting, well if its not announced this week then definitely next week. If you are right, then maybe the person I was speaking to meant next Thursday?

But I can confirm a LAX expansion and LAX-HKG is a go.

May-June start for LAX-HFK I'm hearing, can't confirm.
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Old Jan 13, 2016, 9:34 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by AlwaysAisle
Take this conversation of LAX expansion one step further, then in long term what will happen to PHX hub which is located close to LAX?

UA-CO merger, ORD and CLE were close to each other and eventually CLE hub was closed. Large operation at EWR and UA decided to completely move out of JFK.

DL-NW merger, DTW and CVG were close and CVG hub closed, and also ATL and MEM were close and MEM hub closed down.

In long term, will AA focus more on LAX than PHX?
You're taking it way too far. Compare the size of PHX origin and destination traffic to CLE, CVG, or MEM. PHX is #12 for domestic O&D passenger count; CLE, CVG and MEM don't make the top 30. #12 has more than twice the passenger count of #27, SLC by the way. There is far more to the economics of geography as they apply to airlines than your comparison can manage.

http://www.orlandoairports.net/stati...OandD_Rank.pdf

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