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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Feb 4, 2016, 1:37 pm
  #91  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: PHL
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Lifetime Plat, SPG Plat, AMEX Plat, Hertz PC, Travels too Much Platinum
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Originally Posted by BillBurn
If they are showing no J available, I am guessing that your upgrade outlook is very grim.

Possible reasons for 10 open seats and yet no J for sale:

1. Tickets purchased, but seats not assigned. You see this a lot more on BA than AA, but still happens on AA. This is most likely scenario. If you were #1 or #2 on upgrade list you still might make it on as people without seat assignments seem (IMHO) a little less likely to make a given flight. If it is really oversold as someone else said, forgetaboutit.
This is where my money would be. My team bought the last 7 available J seats on one of the BA PHL-LHR flights with less than 12 hours' notice last week, with the rest of us on the AA flight, and AMEX Travel didn't preassign any seats (they usually can per our BA contract even though BA charges for J seat assignments except for those with high status). AA did autoassign seats to the 5 J seats we bought, but if we looked at GDS availability for the BA flight, I'm sure it would have shown J0 but 7 open on the seat map up until check in.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 1:42 pm
  #92  
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Originally Posted by dpham4
Based on assigned seats in economy, I don't think so. About 3/4 of economy is empty
Do you realize that people without status cannot select most non-middle seats in economy until at least check-in (or at least not without paying an extra fee which most don't want to pay)? So unassinged seats these days in economy only show that lots of people with no status have booked seats.

Meanwhile, have you ever booked a seat on a partner airline and not gotten a seat assignment? Well, the same thing can happen (in any cabin) with people who are from outside the USA and booked on AA via BA, Qantas, LAN, Iberia, Qatar, Cathay, whoever.

So it's very normal for not all seats in any cabin to be assigned, even long after they've all been sold. And in economy, since a few years ago when AA started charging for a number seats and restricting certain other seats to elites only pre-check-in, it's very normal to see many seats unassigned even when the economy cabin is booked full.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 1:47 pm
  #93  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Originally Posted by Dave Noble
For 5th feb it is showing F1 P0 A0 J0 R0 I0 D0 for AA56
yeah, i looked at the wrong flight, you are correct.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 1:56 pm
  #94  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 28
Originally Posted by sdsearch
Do you realize that people without status cannot select most non-middle seats in economy until at least check-in (or at least not without paying an extra fee which most don't want to pay)? So unassinged seats these days in economy only show that lots of people with no status have booked seats.

Meanwhile, have you ever booked a seat on a partner airline and not gotten a seat assignment? Well, the same thing can happen (in any cabin) with people who are from outside the USA and booked on AA via BA, Qantas, LAN, Iberia, Qatar, Cathay, whoever.

So it's very normal for not all seats in any cabin to be assigned, even long after they've all been sold. And in economy, since a few years ago when AA started charging for a number seats and restricting certain other seats to elites only pre-check-in, it's very normal to see many seats unassigned even when the economy cabin is booked full.
I'm well aware seat maps don't reflect available tickets. The point was that with coach THIS empty, it is HIGHLY unlikely oversold.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 2:01 pm
  #95  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 28
Originally Posted by Exec_Plat
You are an exp, with a request 6 months out????

Have you called to MAKE SURE the waitlist is being properly processed and your request isnt messed up?
Yes. I called several times to verify. It was kind of strange though that the return flight (CDG-MIA on Feb 15) didn't clear automatically, even when C inventory opened up. I happened to noticed it and called in for them to clear it, but I was under the assumption that these things would clear automatically (hence the purpose of the waitlist). During that call, I had also asked them to verify I was infact on the waitlist, to which the agent assured me I was, but with little visibility to see for myself, I don't know.

I am waitlisted with my companion, which I believe requires 2 to open up in order for us to clear, which really sucks if it opened up 1 at a time and those below me kept clearing. Such is life I guess
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 4:42 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by nautikal
Business class is oversold on that flight
It may be overbooked, but it's not oversold. FWIW.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 6:01 pm
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by dpham4
Yes. I called several times to verify. It was kind of strange though that the return flight (CDG-MIA on Feb 15) didn't clear automatically, even when C inventory opened up. I happened to noticed it and called in for them to clear it, but I was under the assumption that these things would clear automatically (hence the purpose of the waitlist). During that call, I had also asked them to verify I was infact on the waitlist, to which the agent assured me I was, but with little visibility to see for myself, I don't know.

I am waitlisted with my companion, which I believe requires 2 to open up in order for us to clear, which really sucks if it opened up 1 at a time and those below me kept clearing. Such is life I guess
You are wait listed for a SWU for 2? Why didn't you split the PNR? No wonder you don't clear. My wife and I are EXP, when we book tickets we ALWAYS split the reservation. The odds of 2 seats to appear at the same time is minimal to nonexistent. You most likely have been skipped over a few times. However, if your companion is not EXP, odds for companion to clear are minimal.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 6:05 pm
  #98  
 
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Originally Posted by Exec_Plat
You are an exp, with a request 6 months out????

Have you called to MAKE SURE the waitlist is being properly processed and your request isnt messed up?
This past Thanksgiving my spouse and I went to WAW via LHR. Tickets where bought 01/15, split PNR and applied SWU immediately after purchase and split. Spouse clears SWU on 08/15, not me. Day of trip, I was #4 on a the upgrade list and only 2 seats available.
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Old Feb 4, 2016, 9:25 pm
  #99  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 28
Originally Posted by arollins
You are wait listed for a SWU for 2? Why didn't you split the PNR? No wonder you don't clear. My wife and I are EXP, when we book tickets we ALWAYS split the reservation. The odds of 2 seats to appear at the same time is minimal to nonexistent. You most likely have been skipped over a few times. However, if your companion is not EXP, odds for companion to clear are minimal.
Yes, she is gold status. I was banking on AA holding upgrades back and releasing them all once a certain date rolls around, but I always knew that might not be the case. Our return from Paris has 7+ upgrades still available after we cleared, but I evidently the MIA-LHR flight is business heavy travel.

For clearing at the gate, do you know if they will wait until the last minute to clear? Or will they clear as each cancellation happens? I imagine with EXP status having been waitlisted since August my companion and I would be #1 and #2.
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Old Feb 5, 2016, 6:28 am
  #100  
 
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Clearing at the gate most likely will occur around boarding time. For international flights they like get those out early. Good luck.
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Old Feb 5, 2016, 3:06 pm
  #101  
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Originally Posted by phlwookie
This is where my money would be. My team bought the last 7 available J seats on one of the BA PHL-LHR flights
As the other poster said phlwookie - BA Charges $$$ for an assigned business class seat in J.

I personally wouldn't think your upgrade chances are grim but they are uncertain. In fact on my last system wide upgrade, I took the last two available seats, and after I applied my SWU, they were no longer willing to even sell the J seats. Weird.

The system wide upgrade on American Airlines is somewhat problematic. They don't publish wait lists, and they sometimes hold back 30+ seats until just a couple of days out then run a massive upgrade sweep. And even then they sometimes place couples not together.
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Old Feb 5, 2016, 3:19 pm
  #102  
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Originally Posted by BillBurn
Net, net if you are #1 or #2 on the no doubt very long upgrade list (which means you are an EXP that made this flight reservation awhile ago and are connecting) you will will have a slim chance to get upgraded at the gate if there are enough no shows and no equipment change, otherwise I would prepare yourself mentally for a trip in Y.
connecting doesn't matter
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Old Feb 10, 2016, 3:34 pm
  #103  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 11
SWU for AA 153 ORD to NRT

EXP newbie.
Looking to use a SWU for AA 153 on Feb 26.
AA.com says no SWU availability but there are 12 seats available in J.
Anyone have an insight on what my odds are?
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Old Feb 10, 2016, 3:43 pm
  #104  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Seat maps are in no means a view of available seats to sell.

Reviewing EF, they are only selling 4 J seats. So the flight is very full...depending on when you bought your ticket and added yourself to the list, I wouldn't expect seeing it clear until possibly at the gate.
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Old Feb 11, 2016, 5:57 am
  #105  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 215
Flew RT, cleared both times, right before departure (pretty much at the gate). Few upgrade seats usually show up a day before departure.
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