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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am
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Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)


Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Aug 15, 2016, 2:44 pm
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by bridge29
I think MDT-DFW is way overdue. I could see them eliminating a frequency from MDT-CLT and moving it to MDT-DFW, something like 1x daily E175 or A319. But LAA even has trouble running capacity to ORD from MDT. It's been stable at 3x daily CR7s this summer, but drops capacity this winter again. So much MDT traffic bleeds to BWI and even PHL.

I think ORD-COS and PHX-COS are no-brainers too.
OAK and COS are two prime examples of cities where the combined AA needs to step it up with destinations.

Another route would be LGB-DFW (I'm petty sure LGB still has commuter slots open.) And BUR-DFW/ORD. Weird how they only serve PHX from Burbank.
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Old Aug 15, 2016, 6:53 pm
  #77  
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Originally Posted by AJones2000
Another route would be LGB-DFW (I'm petty sure LGB still has commuter slots open.) And BUR-DFW/ORD. Weird how they only serve PHX from Burbank.
LGB just gave out another round of slots. AA applied but didn't get any. The new slots went to WN, B6 and DL. There are plenty of commuter slots open, but the CRJ-900 and Embraer 170/190 planes are too big for them. I believe CRJ-700's can use the commuter slots.

A lot of small western markets are served by AA only from PHX. This is a legacy of the old America West hub. When America West merged with US Airways, it wasn't practical to serve these markets from US's hubs on the east coast, but it may now be possible to serve them from DFW or ORD. We will see what happens as the integration progresses.

Last edited by cbn42; Aug 15, 2016 at 6:59 pm
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 1:32 am
  #78  
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Originally Posted by bridge29
It's probably both. LUS seemed to run the A332s that arrived from Europe on quick CLT turns in between their early afternoon arrival and late evening departures. It probably makes more sense to run them on BOS turns and reduce frequencies for the rest of the flights in congested airspace. Presumably higher-yielding traffic on BOS-PHL-Europe that would prefer lie-flats, too.
There was a time when A332 was used on the CLT-PHX-CLT route which was a nice sleep as the PHX-CLT departed at 11pmish. Turn around time in PHX was about an hour.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 7:24 am
  #79  
 
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Originally Posted by beyondhere
Any chance AA adds more domestic routes to DFW, that might already have CLT or PHX service?
I'd like to see us re-add crw-dfw, but on a 175 this time. 2.5hrs and daily weight restrictions on the crj200 we had for about 18months was awful, would prefer a RON for early am departure to DFW, evening arrival from DFW. Don't see it until Envoy tops out on their 40 175s or options being exercise though.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 7:58 am
  #80  
 
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Originally Posted by AJones2000
OAK and COS are two prime examples of cities where the combined AA needs to step it up with destinations.

Another route would be LGB-DFW (I'm petty sure LGB still has commuter slots open.) And BUR-DFW/ORD. Weird how they only serve PHX from Burbank.
Yes. OAK-DFW and LGB-DFW should both be part of the network for sure.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:03 am
  #81  
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BUR-DFW didn't survive. I'm not so sure about the viability of tertiary California airports to DFW. If the term tertiary offends, OAK and LGB certainly aren't core to AA.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:06 am
  #82  
 
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
BUR-DFW didn't survive. I'm not so sure about the viability of tertiary California airports to DFW. If the term tertiary offends, OAK and LGB certainly aren't core to AA.
OAK and LGB are hardly tertiary.

Tertiary are CEC, BFL, MRY, SBA, etc.

Edit: FAT is served double daily from DFW. OAK serves 7x as much traffic as FAT, LGB is 2x.

Last edited by DWFI; Aug 16, 2016 at 8:15 am
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 9:13 am
  #83  
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Originally Posted by Josh1780
AA is starting CLT-SJC this summer so I could see them considering SNA if the demand is there however it doesn't seem likely due to slot restrictions. The route would also live off connections, almost all of which can be easily routed through PHX and DFW.
I have been reading through this thread, mostly interested in SNA service. I tend to disagree with the routing through PHX and DFW. As an AA flier that lives about 6 miles from SNA I'd love to see a cross-country flight. Routing through DFW means departing in the morning and arriving on the east coast at night. If we could depart SNA in the evening (latest departure, say 10:00 or 10:15pm) and fly overnight we could connect to east coast cities in the morning. This is what I'm missing from SNA. An overnight flight to PHL or CLT would be great for morning connections. Instead, I need to trek to LAX to accomplish the same thing.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 9:34 am
  #84  
 
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Originally Posted by JCN
I have been reading through this thread, mostly interested in SNA service. I tend to disagree with the routing through PHX and DFW. As an AA flier that lives about 6 miles from SNA I'd love to see a cross-country flight. Routing through DFW means departing in the morning and arriving on the east coast at night. If we could depart SNA in the evening (latest departure, say 10:00 or 10:15pm) and fly overnight we could connect to east coast cities in the morning. This is what I'm missing from SNA. An overnight flight to PHL or CLT would be great for morning connections. Instead, I need to trek to LAX to accomplish the same thing.
DL doesn't even have a redeye to ATL. UA has one to EWR, but it departs at 9:20pm. I am not sure one would work to CLT or PHL especially given the slot restrictions. Does AA have an optimal aircraft for SNA-CLT/PHL? Delta uses 752's and UA uses 73G's.

For a couple of my trips I did SNA-DEN/IAH-PHL departing SNA in the early afternoon and getting the last flight of the day on DEN/IAH-PHL.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 11:41 am
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by nova08
DL doesn't even have a redeye to ATL. UA has one to EWR, but it departs at 9:20pm. I am not sure one would work to CLT or PHL especially given the slot restrictions. Does AA have an optimal aircraft for SNA-CLT/PHL? Delta uses 752's and UA uses 73G's.

For a couple of my trips I did SNA-DEN/IAH-PHL departing SNA in the early afternoon and getting the last flight of the day on DEN/IAH-PHL.
I could see it working...and for a plane, they could send a 737 from a LAA base (pretty sure that's what they're doing with the new summer daytime SMF flight) or use an A319/20/21, all of which fly cross country from CLT.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 12:19 pm
  #86  
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Originally Posted by AJones2000
OAK and COS are two prime examples of cities where the combined AA needs to step it up with destinations.

Another route would be LGB-DFW (I'm petty sure LGB still has commuter slots open.) And BUR-DFW/ORD. Weird how they only serve PHX from Burbank.
When AA terminated BUR-DFW, the publicly available fare data showed that LAX-DFW attracted higher average O&D fares than BUR. What compelling reason exists for AA to restart BUR-DFW?

Originally Posted by DWFI
Yes. OAK-DFW and LGB-DFW should both be part of the network for sure.
Why? OAK is dominated by WN and LGB isn't a high-fare airport.

Originally Posted by 3Cforme
BUR-DFW didn't survive. I'm not so sure about the viability of tertiary California airports to DFW. If the term tertiary offends, OAK and LGB certainly aren't core to AA.
Agreed. BUR and OAK (both dominated by WN) are not high-yield airports. Neither is LGB.

Originally Posted by DWFI
OAK and LGB are hardly tertiary.

Tertiary are CEC, BFL, MRY, SBA, etc.

Edit: FAT is served double daily from DFW. OAK serves 7x as much traffic as FAT, LGB is 2x.
FAT is not dominated by WN, meaning that AA can attract higher fares at FAT compared to those higher traffic/lower yield tertiary airports.

Originally Posted by AJones2000
I could see it working...and for a plane, they could send a 737 from a LAA base (pretty sure that's what they're doing with the new summer daytime SMF flight) or use an A319/20/21, all of which fly cross country from CLT.
SNA doesn't have enough runway for a nonstop eastbound transcon A320 or A321. Perhaps the A319 would work, but that's a high CASM airplane - would fares on SNA-CLT be high enough to warrant a high-cost transcon flight? Maybe.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 6:07 pm
  #87  
 
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
SNA doesn't have enough runway for a nonstop eastbound transcon A320 or A321. Perhaps the A319 would work, but that's a high CASM airplane - would fares on SNA-CLT be high enough to warrant a high-cost transcon flight? Maybe.
Eons ago, I think even before the HP-US merger, US operated SNA-PIT, which was transferred to SNA-PHL with the teardown of the PIT hub. Westbound dinner hour flight, eastbound redeye. It was operated with the A319. I took it a few times out PIT and PHL, probably in the 2002-2005 timeframe, and it was lightly patronized every time I flew it, but back then loads tended to be much lower overall on all carriers.

Perhaps with a newer winglet A319 and the shorter distance to CLT it could be tried again if they wanted to devote a slot or managed to get a new one, but I wouldn't say they should make it a priority.

It's always surprised me that airports such as SJC, OAK, SNA, etc couldn't support more than fleeting or token service to East Coast hubs. Here's hoping that SJC-CLT is a success.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 7:32 pm
  #88  
 
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Originally Posted by phlwookie
Eons ago, I think even before the HP-US merger, US operated SNA-PIT, which was transferred to SNA-PHL with the teardown of the PIT hub. Westbound dinner hour flight, eastbound redeye. It was operated with the A319. I took it a few times out PIT and PHL, probably in the 2002-2005 timeframe, and it was lightly patronized every time I flew it, but back then loads tended to be much lower overall on all carriers.

Perhaps with a newer winglet A319 and the shorter distance to CLT it could be tried again if they wanted to devote a slot or managed to get a new one, but I wouldn't say they should make it a priority.

It's always surprised me that airports such as SJC, OAK, SNA, etc couldn't support more than fleeting or token service to East Coast hubs. Here's hoping that SJC-CLT is a success.
My back and legs hurt just thinking about an A319 on a transcon route, especially the LUS birds.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:10 pm
  #89  
 
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Originally Posted by george 3
My back and legs hurt just thinking about an A319 on a transcon route, especially the LUS birds.
Just curious, the LUS A319's have the same seats and pitch as the LAA ones, but without the annoying IFE box under the seat. A preference for IFE is understandable, personally I prefer not having the box, but there isn't a difference anymore in the seat.
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Old Aug 16, 2016, 8:25 pm
  #90  
 
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Originally Posted by sagechan
Just curious, the LUS A319's have the same seats and pitch as the LAA ones, but without the annoying IFE box under the seat. A preference for IFE is understandable, personally I prefer not having the box, but there isn't a difference anymore in the seat.
If you had to be in coach but could snag 10A or F you were fine as there was no 9A or F due to the emergency exit door. They're all terrible now, including the legacy AA ones, if you can't get at least into MCE.

Do we think a 738 could do SNA-East Coast (perhaps only as a red eye for cooler temps in the summer months) with the shorter runway and noise abatement requirements out of SNA?
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