FWAAA

Good point - I'm sure it does cut both ways. I'd book RIC-MIA-JAX in a minute.

I just looked at RIC-MIA-JAX and it's extremely similar to LIT-DFW-IND. Some connections are efficient and some don't look all that efficient, but there's no other good way to fly LIT-DFW-IND on AA and stay on mainline planes. Delta? Yuck. Connect at ORD? Too many RJs. But we Flyertalkers aren't representative of normal people.

I'm sure it does. AA wasn't attempting to sell very many domestic connections over MIA, as most are more illogical/inefficient than RIC-MIA-JAX. As I've posted probably a dozen times in this thread, CLT has a bright future connecting the NE to the SE and connecting traffic within the SE. It's not quite as necessary for the new AA connect smaller places in the SE to the farther reaches of the country at CLT, as new AA has MIA, ORD and DFW, which old pmUS did not have. pmUS has far more flights and seats from CLT to LAX, SFO, etc., than it can possibly fill profitably. And we know how pmUS was filling some of the seats over CLT: by undercutting, in some instances, AA's nonstop fares. US was pandering to the bargain-hunters in selling inefficient low-fare connections.

pmUS could afford to do that due to the embarrassingly low pay its pilots and FAs accepted compared to the payscales at AA, DL, NW, CO, UA and, of course, WN. And the fact that Charlotte was practically willing to pay pmUS to connect passengers there. CLT is spending money now that Jerry Orr is out (buh-bye to those very low CPEP figures) and pmUS handed its pilots and FAs huge raises. No longer will US/AA offer low-fares over CLT to undercut AA's nonstop fares (unless Parker is irrational). And as the Dash8s are retired (already starting) and as the 50-seat RJs disappear (happening rapidly around the country), pushing more and more passengers thru CLT will make even less sense.

US has already announced that its GIG-CLT-MCO flights are gone. That connection was far less efficient than even RIC-MIA-JAX. Brazilians headed to see the mouse will connect at MIA, probably at higher fares to boot.

Big changes can't happen quickly even if they made sense, as Parker (like all other mergers before) made commitments to keep historic levels of service at the hubs for three years. The recent news that CLT will build some new domestic gates instead of a big new international terminal is a very wise move. CLT will always have more international flights than does BNA, RDU, PIT and CVG, but it won't have as many as it does now. Adding more flights at CLT isn't going to increase the CLT O&D - it would just require even more low-fare connecting traffic.

New AA isn't going to abandon or de-hub CLT. It's a great domestic connecting hub. Atlanta? It's in the same region, but it's the only thing DL has in the SE USA. Delta doesn't have a Miami for Latin America, so it pushes everything thru ATL. Low-yield compared to MIA. Delta gave up on DFW, but AA did not. I recently read a piece from the Charlotte press where Jerry Orr's replacement again talked about building a fifth runway and how CLT might someday be as big as ATL. That might happen if climate change and rising ocean levels inundate Florida and DFW blows away in a cyclone. And if 3 million people move from the Atlanta suburbs to the Charlotte suburbs. Outside of those possibilities, CLT has peaked until the Charlotte population and economic activity grows. It will never resemble ATL.

CMK10

I do help AA pours some money into CLT. The food court area is nice, as is Concourse D, but the rest are just awful. The gates aren't big enough to handle A-321s and people spill out into the concourse making walking between gates very difficult (especially when those stupid carts come through). It makes connecting there frustrating.

Ambraciot

But cheap, with fuel and labor costs up the CLT operation is in enough trouble as is, remember for most routes/pax at CLT US/AA is trying to somehow operate two short flights at the same cost as one direct LCC flight.

IceTrojan

SGN is also served by CX via HKG and MH via KUL, not to mention all the other connections possible. But the common theme is that it's a choice on what is the least painful trip (especially for those visiting their homeland). Also, as far as I know, the West Coast doesn't have same the concentration of displaced Thais and Singaporeans. And IMO there are plenty of Vietnamese that are now "new money" and willing to pitch in for a business seat in both directions.

Honestly, this is what pops into my head if LAX-SGN non-stop becomes reality:

MAH4546

Average fares between the U.S. and Viet Nam suck. AA isn't going to touch that market anytime soon.

IADCAflyer

I'll bet we see a PHL-NRT announcement in next 12 to 15 months. Star has double the number of frequencies to the Northeast with 2x daily to IAD (one NH and one UA), 2x daily to JFK (both NH), 1x daily to EWR (UA), and 1x daily to YYZ (AC). At least four of these offer broad connection options to the northeast and mid-atlantic.

1W has 3x to the Northeast with 2x daily to JFK (JL) and 1x daily to BOS (JL). None of these really offer robust connecting abilities.

Granted, you can connect passengers via DFW or ORD, but I think that given that the east coast flights have limited reach, PHL would be an awfully viable choice.

Bet it would be a 777-200ER.

dmbtr3

It's a good connection point too, which could be attractive to JL. Maybe JL adds a flight.

lhl12

If PHL-NRT launches, might it make more sense for JAL to be the carrier rather than AA? JAL has recently launched BOS-NRT service on 787's, which has been wildly successful so far. Maybe they want to take on PHL as well? Not sure who gets first dibs - JAL or AA - or how they decide.

FWAAA

Don't know how AA and JAL allocate who flies which route, but the AA pilots are going to want to see their "fair share" of new long-haul routes. Recently, JAL has begun SAN, BOS and JFK (second daily, replacing AA metal).

The JAL 787s, while featuring a civilized 2-4-2 econ configuration (compared to everyone else's nine across), also feature slanted ski slope business class seats, and we know that those are unacceptable these days.

AA has the lower yields (average fares) to Asia than UA or DL, and if NGBC is partially to blame, then AA needs to get fully flat seats on its flights to Japan and China.

IADCAflyer

Here's a wild idea. How about AA starts IAD-LHR? Take your existing O/D base out of the Washington area (you'd be poaching some of your BA passengers), and add passengers out of DCA who are connecting from other cities to DCA. Place them on a -secure bus- (security seals for both passengers and baggage), and have the bus transit from the secure side of DCA to the terminal side at IAD.

2.5 hour minimum connection time should work.

CMK10

That's an interesting thought. AA would have to open their AC at IAD again though.

scnzzz

Wild indeed.

Given the JBA makes TATL travel metal neutral, why would such a solution not just feed the existing BA connection?

More to the point, who would possibly want to connect through DCA and then have to transit to IAD with all the possible things that could go wrong? Instead of XXX-DCA-IAD-LHR, what's wrong with XXX-PHL/JFK/MIA/ORD-LHR (depending on where XXX is)?

What possible reason would anyone have for doing this?

(While we're at it, let's apply the same logic to LGA/JFK)

Flyer78

Could you imagine the threads here if it was done?

Think of the new flat-tire rule questions and situations.

Imagine the theater created to ensure the seals are all secure, and only opened by authorized seal-breakers.

Lament over the lack of air-rail-rail-air transfer...

dtremit

Or they could just fly ten more minutes and connect at PHL.

Plus, BA already serves IAD-LHR and BWI-LHR, which is good coverage for anyone in WAS.

IADCAflyer

Donno. Sticking to brand loyalty? Keeping revenue within AA as opposed to BA? Topping off a flight which is going to have to fight for O/D traffic. You're going to be hard pressed to find 250 local passengers to fill the plane. This would potentially allow you to go from a flight that loses money to one that makes money...