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2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

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2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

 
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Old Sep 15, 2015, 11:33 am
  #826  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: NYC, ORD
Programs: AA EXP, AS 75K, SPG Gold, Hilton Gold
Posts: 280
Originally Posted by wwrjb
Hi

Does anyone have any input on my upgrade from JFK - MXP this Friday (AA 198) clearing from Economy to Business.

I'm EXP, requested points + pay upgrade however Business if FULL with 8 FREE seats in First at the moment.

Will paid J get upgraded to F allowing upgrades from Economy to Business?

Thanks
Expert Flyer is showing F1 J1 Y2 for that flight, so unless you're the first (or second, if a J passenger upgrades to F) on the list, your chances are slim to none.

If you were to make a same-day change (which I believe is now allowed for international flights), you might be able to route through MIA, which shows J4 Y6, considerably improving your chances. I would wait until T-24 of the MIA flight - when the agents can see the upgrade list -to make that change. You would also have to depart NY no later than 8 hours earlier than your original flight to be able to connect through MIA.
vhrum is offline  
Old Sep 15, 2015, 11:51 am
  #827  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 106
Thanks! Unfortunately I can't get to MIA earlier. Can't leave work up until the minute I need to for JFK.

Thanks - appreciate you checking for me and I'll cross my fingers anyway.
wwrjb is offline  
Old Sep 15, 2015, 12:05 pm
  #828  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 47
Two scenarios for a possible J upgrade with miles/co-pay on upcoming MIA to LHR and MAN to MIA return. Thoughts on chances please. Thank you very much for the help.


MIA to LHR #38 on 9/30 @9:20pm
Booked economy, paid for MCE when there was 2/3 of MCE still open. 1/3 open at the moment. 33 open J seats at the moment, 19 reserved.

&

LHR to MIA (MAN to LHR is eco and only 25 min.) #39 on 10/10 @3pm

Booked economy, paid for MCE when there was 2/3 of MCE open. 1/3 open at the moment. 15 open J seats at the moment, 37 reserved.



If return home scenario is 50/50 due to fewer avail seats than the outgoing, there is also a MAN - Chicago - MIA option available with 20 open J seats at the moment, 9 reserved. This is on the updated 767. I don't think it has many MCE seats, but i'm not sure.


Thanks !
tr561 is offline  
Old Sep 16, 2015, 10:13 pm
  #829  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
Originally Posted by wwrjb
Hi

Does anyone have any input on my upgrade from JFK - MXP this Friday (AA 198) clearing from Economy to Business.

I'm EXP, requested points + pay upgrade however Business if FULL with 8 FREE seats in First at the moment.

Will paid J get upgraded to F allowing upgrades from Economy to Business?

Thanks
When did that flight go from a 767 to 777? I would have thought that would improve Y->J upgrade chances but apparently not.
Stripe is offline  
Old Sep 16, 2015, 10:20 pm
  #830  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
Originally Posted by grrizzli
You must be flying Podunk-Tulsa routes all the time.

If you want to know what an elite-heavy flight is fly BOS-LAX AA147. The F cabin is always full, I've never been upgraded there as an EXP even on Saturday afternoon despite buying a ticket 2-3 months in advance.

The last time I wasn't upgraded even on LAX-BOS AA1076 purchased 2 months before the departure. As usual, I was #1 on the upgrade list, little difference if you end up flying in Y.
If F sells out, you can be the only elite on the plane and you'll still ride in Y. I wonder why AA doesn't throw a 757 on that route if the paid F demand is so high.

If I had your experience I'd probably think about using miles+copay occasionally or connecting at DFW.
Stripe is offline  
Old Sep 17, 2015, 2:06 am
  #831  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: ORD
Programs: status free since 2017
Posts: 2,188
Originally Posted by vhrum
If I'm not mistaken all North America (including Central America) is eligible for EXP and 500-mile upgrades. PTY will be eligible, but BOG will not. It would be nice if they included northern SA as eligible…

I'm a Plat on the 6 AM BNA-DFW on Saturday, connecting to LAX at 9:15. Both these flights just went from more than F7 to F2 last night/this morning. Concerned about my chances, though the next two flights to LAX (which still allow me enough time to connect in LAX) are F6 and F8 right now. I'm stressing out for sure. Any thoughts, consolations or warnings?
Given my experience b/w LAX-DFW (during PLT days), it's a tough one to clear. Sat morning might help your chances a little.
carsnoceans is offline  
Old Sep 17, 2015, 10:16 am
  #832  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: BOS, LAX
Programs: AA Gold, HH Diamond
Posts: 804
Originally Posted by Stripe
If F sells out, you can be the only elite on the plane and you'll still ride in Y. I wonder why AA doesn't throw a 757 on that route if the paid F demand is so high.

If I had your experience I'd probably think about using miles+copay occasionally or connecting at DFW.
You're right, the problem is the paid F demand. AA had a mix of 757s and 737s on this route only 1.5 years ago. Now the 757s are gone, but the number of daily flights went up from 4 to 5.
grrizzli is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 10:13 am
  #833  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: New York / Shanghai / Taipei
Posts: 119
Got upgraded a few mins ago @ T-100 for Tuesday afternoon flight LGA-MIA. -- I'm looking at a much earlier flight, pretty empty load for the early bird ones - should I SDC and try to shoot for upgrade through airport control?
nyczreklis is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 10:19 am
  #834  
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Join Date: May 2012
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Originally Posted by nyczreklis
Got upgraded a few mins ago @ T-100 for Tuesday afternoon flight LGA-MIA. -- I'm looking at a much earlier flight, pretty empty load for the early bird ones - should I SDC and try to shoot for upgrade through airport control?
If you want to switch to one of the earlier flights and you can SDC, what would be the point of waiting for it to go to airport control to upgrade?
cmd320 is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 11:07 am
  #835  
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: New York / Shanghai / Taipei
Posts: 119
Originally Posted by cmd320
If you want to switch to one of the earlier flights and you can SDC, what would be the point of waiting for it to go to airport control to upgrade?
Good point. Lol - will SDC come Tuesday early morning.
nyczreklis is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 12:30 pm
  #836  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: ORD
Programs: status free since 2017
Posts: 2,188
Originally Posted by nyczreklis
Good point. Lol - will SDC come Tuesday early morning.
Does one lose confirmed upgrade (domestic) when doing a SDC?
carsnoceans is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 2:18 pm
  #837  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
Originally Posted by carsnoceans
Does one lose confirmed upgrade (domestic) when doing a SDC?
Yes. You go back to Y and get in the queue for the remaining available upgrades on the new flight. I would assume your timestamp resets but I'm not positive about that,

If the new flight is lightly loaded in F the new upgrade might confirm shortly after you switch.
Stripe is offline  
Old Sep 25, 2015, 3:02 pm
  #838  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: ORD
Programs: status free since 2017
Posts: 2,188
Originally Posted by Stripe
Yes. You go back to Y and get in the queue for the remaining available upgrades on the new flight. I would assume your timestamp resets but I'm not positive about that,

If the new flight is lightly loaded in F the new upgrade might confirm shortly after you switch.
Thanks!

Original timestamp stays.

New question -

Do I need to have SWU in inventory for being added to wait list? Planning to book DFW-HKG for Dec and Feb but I am one SWU short right now. However, I will clear EXP and will have required number well before it clears (since this route clears T-24hrs).

Last edited by carsnoceans; Sep 25, 2015 at 3:13 pm Reason: 1 more question
carsnoceans is offline  
Old Sep 26, 2015, 10:51 am
  #839  
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Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
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Posts: 12,809
Originally Posted by carsnoceans
Does one lose confirmed upgrade (domestic) when doing a SDC?
Yes, though usually the AAgent will be able to tell you if they can process the upgrade immediately or not for the new flight. For example, if there is X space available on the new flight, they can usually SDC you, then immediately upgrade you afterward. At least, this used to be my experience. With all the merger miscues this may no longer be possible. Who knows...
cmd320 is offline  
Old Sep 27, 2015, 1:15 pm
  #840  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: New Orleans (MSY)
Programs: AA EXP, IHG PLT, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Amtrak, WN
Posts: 2,617
Missed DFW-AUS as a thru pax requesting a few days shy of one month out. Second upgrade ever missed as an EXP (first was JFK-MIA).

At least there was a full beverage service on the quick flight down to Austin!
brewdog11 is offline  


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