armagebedar

Those three things make this sounds highly irregular. NH isn't known either for evening European departures ex-Japan, and especially not ex-NRT (they want to capture domestic transit passengers). They also rarely fly less than daily flights to ensure good scheduling. Moreover, if O&D passengers are their target, HND would be a better choice than NRT. (I also don't get the connection made between evening flight = must be from NRT...)

I would expect NH to go after somewhere higher yielding at a hub airport (like IST) before flying to BRU given how close it is to DUS, CDG, and LHR. SN would instead be the prime candidate to fly to NRT along with the other European carriers.

Flanker2

Though I appreciate your input I very much doubt IST is high yielding out of NRT.
I was on the TK NRT-IST flight last night, B77W. Many in Y were European tourists on their way back, the Japanese were mostly tour groups and leisure couples, the premium economy section was light with mostly non-Japanese, the J load was ok but not many Japanese corporates in there and most connecting.

I flew for business and paid 460 Euro's return in Y BRU-NRT via IST and even at that fare they couldn't fill the Y section. Most pax head to the transfer gates after arrival at IST including the J pax, and connecting traffic isn't exactly high yielding.

The O&D demand between Turkey and Japan is also mostly leisure, so I think that NH would be more than happy to keep selling codeshares seats rather than wasting a B77W or a low density B788 on this route.

So I doubt that NH would do any better sending their own flights there.

BRU has a lot more to offer, yields-wise.
The local airline and Star Member/LH subsidiary SN (not SU = Aeroflot) has an extensive network in West Africa where Japan is investing heavily. The yields on the African sectors are high and if ANA can codeshare on those flights, they will sell a lot of J seats at good margins, with mutual benefits for both airlines, supporting an increase of frequencies in Africa.
In addition, many Japanese companies have their European headquarters and logistics centers in Belgium, among many others, Toyota. This naturally brings a high yield base that NH can rely upon all year-long.
I think that Belgium has a Japanese corporate presence to rival Dusseldorf, if not stronger
Also, SN operates a few regional business destinations here and there, which makes it interesting for connections.

The demand for the flight is mostly business and it will be complemented by high yield leisure, including VFR (visiting friends and relatives).


It's being rumored that the flight will be 4-5 weekly.
I think that NH's low density B788 will have no problem making good loads and yields on this flight, especially the premium cabins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if NH themselves are surprised by the demand that there is for this flight and go daily after a year or so.

Other hubs are nearby, but a connection is still a connection.
I've seen train sets full of Japanese in suits doing ZYR*-CDG by TGV to catch AF and JL flights out of CDG. *ZYR=Brussels-midi Station

The driver for this route will be the demand out of Japan, so SN will have to work much harder to achieve to attract that demand. In addition, while SN is still afloat and heading towards healthy profitability for 2015, 5 years of straight losses have burried a hole in their financials, limiting the longhaul route expansions that they can afford.

The evening flight doesn't make a lot of sense out of Japan indeed, given the lack of feeding at NRT.
It does however make sense on the BRU side, as it will connect perfectly with SN's Africa flights.Perhaps NH is mulling an evening longhaul wave out of NRT?
It does make sense after all, given the shear amount of 787's they have on order and the limited amount of HND slots available.

Out of Japan, many West African routes are shorter via BRU than the Middle-East.


GCMAP.COM


I too think that HND is more suitable, but again, it's not up to NH, as the slots have to be appointed by the Japanese government. I also doubt that NH would like to waste such a slot on a longhaul B787 route, because even though a HND-BRU B787 flight could bring healthy profits all year-round, it's still not a HND-CDG or HND-LHR B77W flight.


Let's also add a political aspect to this matter.
NH would prefer to partner with LH rather than TK.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...fthansa-171787

janvdr

In the meantime Brussels-NRT has been confirmed:
https://www.ana.co.jp/eng/aboutana/p...15/150601.html

CPH-Flyer

It could seem that NRT-CDG is axed at the same time.

joejones

ANA just opened up a sales office in MEX, and their CEO says it's high on his list of potential future destinations.

Japanese link: http://www.aviationwire.jp/archives/62921

A Nikkei story mentioned that MEX is a huge market for the Japanese auto industry and that this is ANA's main motivation in opening an office there.

CPH-Flyer

It is about 7000 miles in shortest route, even the 777-300ER should be able to do it non stop. CX does 8000 miles from HKG to JFK with 77W. The only question would be potential wind patterns on the return flight. With the auto industry there should even be a decent market for first class.

joejones

And while we're speculating about GRU, MEX could be a stopover for that service, which would help in filling up the 77W that would be needed to do the MEX-NRT return nonstop...

AA_EXP09

DUS is not a *A hub (FRA/MUC are)
LHR could be but the taxes there make it not a competitive airport IMO for connections.

aresef

http://www.ausbt.com.au/ana-to-resta...n-boeing-787-9

CPH-Flyer

Considering how difficult it can be getting a seat on short notice on the direct flights, I would welcome some added capacity on Sydney.

AA_EXP09

I'm not entirely convinced there are enough Mexican/Brazilian PAX that want to fly MEXGRU (v.v.) that would equal the number of PAX ending their journey at MEX.

jrmyl

I believe AeroMexico flies MEX-NRT non-stop in their 787. If not, someone please correct me.

ddrum2000

I'd like to see BOS-NRT as well

ankomonkey

BHX please.

Madone59

I'd love to see ANA go head to head with JAL on TYO-SAN. Get a little more *A in California's second largest city.