sfozrhfco

Very true. The advantage WN has is that everybody knows what to expect. People that travel know they are going to be able to check their bags for free, change/cancel their tickets if somebody gets sick or plans change, and are not likely to face any surprises in regard to the product offering. For people with kids, WN is often the go to airline. AS now has a big problem with explaining to people what they actually are. They are not an ULCC; they are not offering a consistent product with free checked bags, good frequency, and fair prices like Southwest; they are not innovating the product like JetBlue; and they don't have the route network and scope of the US3. They are slowly and surely muddling the brand that they worked so hard to develop in the PNW. VX was advertised as the hip airline to differentiate themselves and give people a reason to take them over others. They also had some power in setting prices to keep people interested.

AS's branding and market position has become so nebulous, it seems like management has still not come to understand who they are trying to attract as customers, what those customers want, and how they fit into the newly competitive landscape.

I don't love WN for sure and boycotted UA for over a decade but now find myself on both as I would rather take the most convenient and best value flight when the difference is product is so small--especially for flights within the West Coast which are generally a couple hours or less.

3Cforme

I love E75s vs. 737s (especially WN 737s without power or AVOD) but you can't beat 10 frequencies with 3 in a short-haul network like intra-CA. Business travelers don't want to sit around waiting for the next flight. They (we) will be happy to expense the buy-up fee to get back two hours earlier. AS winds up getting a higher mix of (low) leisure fares while running a higher cost plane.

eponymous_coward

Then what was the point AS of spending 2.6 billion dollars for VX? They had been doing that kind of service from SJC/SAN for years (AS is #2 in both markets now). Why not let B6 spend the cash and hand them VX's dead weight if you actually don't want to serve SFO or LAX customers after you make the purchase? It's not like Boeing wouldn't sell you all the planes you'd like if you want the VX fleet.

The only way a VX purchase makes sense is if you're going for CA markets because SEA/PDX are likely topped out for fueling any growth... and even WN knows SFO/LAX are important in the CA scheme of things, and they have top positions at OAK/SJC plus SNA/LGB/BUR/ONT.

It's a huge market, really. Over 20 daily frequencies out of SFO, which is arguably WN's weakest station in CA (in terms of market share). The fact that you don't use it doesn't mean it's not terribly important if you're an airline actually trying to expand in CA.

SJC ORD LDR

1) I still have no idea why AS saw that much value in VX.
2) I know there are lots of NorCal - SoCal flights, just has no interest to me. It's also the market where being comfortable really isn't as important because you're not in the air for an hour. Now, if the state gets its act together and can build a decent high speed train, I wonder what will happen to all those flights?

acarney

As much as I HATE HATE HATE these fee's, I'm almost kinda slightly open to them just because I'm stick of constantly seeing $90+ one way from PSC to SEA since it's a strong route for AS. I hate when I see all these other short routes that are like $49 to $69 one way and I never catch a break on this route (PSC is my home airport). I doubt I would book these fares when actually going on a trip I want to enjoy, but if they were actually that cheap I totally would book these for a day trip to Seattle and back just out of the blue. It's hard to pay near $200 just to spend 12 to 14 hours in Seattle for the day but I hate the drive and the hotel + parking makes a weekend trip jump up a lot....

However, with all that said, I suspect they'll mimic Delta on this route and be like $9 cheaper or something. $80 one way for a less then 1 hour flight (that has like 5 daily departures) is way not worth giving up all the normal things that come with a normal fare. These Saver fares will just be a joke to get AS to show up at the top of a fare search list, not actually sell cheap seats. (Since to be honest, most flights seem to go out pretty full anyway...)

FlyingBear

Totally agree with this. So this is anecdotal, but for all of the normal leisure travelers I know in the Bay Area, I always get the question why don't you fly Southwest (seriously, they make me feel like I'm nuts). Their generous cancellation policy and frequency has made them the first choice for most of the non FF's I know. Most of the frequent business travelers I know prefer not to fly Southwest, but then most of those are vested in one of the big legacy's because of reach and/or alliance. I hope they can carve out a big enough segment to thrive, but here and now, this does seem like an uphill battle.

eponymous_coward

California bullet train cost surges by $2.8 billion: 'Worst-case scenario has happened'

I'd probably be more worried about the Big One (San Andreas or Cascadia subduction zone earthquake).

FlyingBear

My money is on hybrid-electric powered regional jets improving short haul economics before the HSR is fully deployed.

Firms team up on hybrid electric plane technology - BBC News

Edit: Sorry, upon posting, I notice that I'm taking this thread off topic, so mods please feel free to cut as you see fit.

nsx

That reminds me: Back in the days of United Express I compared earning rates for Southwest and UA. Southwest was giving 1 credit (actually 2 if you booked online) for each one-way flight. 16 credits earned an unrestricted free round trip worth about $300. You could literally pay less than $300 in fares to earn that $300 effective rebate. No wonder United couldn't compete.

The mileage-based loyalty program is a big competitive disadvantage in short-haul markets. Southwest gives you credit based on fare, which is not that different for a 250-mile flight than for a 1000-mile flight. It's not 16 one-ways for a free trip anymore, but the full fare traveler is raking in the rebates on Southwest. By design. The program is so simple that even the tech wizards out here understand it and use it. What good is a generous loyalty program if nobody responds to its incentives because they don't understand it? That, more than anything, was the genius of Southwest's 2011 switch to revenue-based earnings and redemption. It hurt me but it mostly helped the 99% who are not gamers.

So I am adding another requirement to win the California market: In addition to frequency and dropping change fees, Alaska will need to adapt Mileage Plan to provide reasonable (competitive with WN) earnings for short-haul customers. This is a tall order.

Who could have seen that coming? Other than everyone. The final cost of a complete system will boggle the mind. Probably more than $20 billion, assuming that the whole thing is canceled somewhere along the way. I love fast trains, but this one makes no financial sense. Air travel will always be much cheaper and more flexible.

eponymous_coward

VX had a similar program that AS dumped, though I would point out there are enough 5k/7.5k/10k awards in the AS award system for short cheap flights that "Ooooh, I can use my miles for something!" is not a problem. AS's changes in that regard were definitely designed to be competitive with WN (so they can give someone a 5000 mile one way flight pretty easy), and unlike other airlines (*cough*AA*cough*) they still have reasonable saver coach availability, if not AMAZING, even last minute.

It even helps the ones who ARE gamers. You get 1200 RR points from a weekend car rental at Alamo (and others, especially the discounted car rental agencies). That's the equivalent to the earnings of flying a $200 WGA fare. It's pretty easy to spend less than $200 on a weekend car rental. $50 is not unheard of. When combined with Daily Getaways Alamo gift certificates at the right time of year, I spend $25 (nett) on a two day rental and get $16 back in WN WGA fares. Plus a car for the weekend.

dayone

Moderator Note: Just a topic check reminder. We're talking about AS' new fares and fees.

dayone, AS/VX Moderator

FlyingBear

So thinking about it a bit more, what I would suggest to AS on the off chance they are reading this is that if they are going to do away with the 60-day change policy, consider keeping VX's Plans Change Pass. For flights where the is a bit of uncertainty, I would be willing to shell out $25 for a non-refundable fee in order to have the ability to make a change as needed. Or perhaps offer it at a discount for MVPs? Granted, I have no clue how this would play out with the Best Fare Guarantee. Ideally, it would have been nice if they maybe kept the 60-day changes on non BE tickets. However. if we are going to lose the change policy regardless and unbundling is the future, this would be an OK middle ground to me.

nsx

Yes! I recently booked a transcon nonstop (formerly VX) on short notice. I used Avios since I expect them to sucker punch us with devaluation of US domestic redemption before I can deplete my balance. I regard Alaska miles as twice as valuable as Avios points. I am looking forward to seeing less than 1000 Avios in my account and saying "Adios Avios".

jddssc121

Just reaffirms my decision to walk away from flying AS a few years ago.

channa

Some negative publicity about this in the Bay Area: https://www.sfgate.com/chris-mcginni...s-12860783.php