channa

You can buy an F ticket now and LFG it, but still to F. It's the same product. BE is a different product. They will have to address this complexity. Or like you said, remove the LFG.
.

But that's the problem. They're competing with WN, and they're also competing with AA/UA/DL -- which have no LFG, have BE, and charge a $200 change fee, and don't waive it even for their top tiers which spend a ton of money on them.


And AA, UA, and DL also match the fares (at times) and charge more to upfare from BE, and have a $200 change fee (so even if you paid a bit more to avoid BE, the changeability aspect is moot as ticket is trash anyway if you need to change).


Sure, VX was a better product. But we also didn't see this type of price point when VX was flying it (from time to time we'd see $119 SFO-JFK, but $27 SFO-LAX was unheard of, despite some 10x frequencies by VX). The revenue erosion came when AS took over.


An upgrade program, assigned seating, one of the industry's lowest change fees, and introducing a non-changeable class is not exactly going to NK's level across the board. Absolutely AA/UA/DL have better reach. Does AS deserve criticism for this? Sure. Is it a positive change? Of course not. But it's not exactly becoming NK or F9 either. Becoming "blah" airlines might be a better description of what they're doing.


No doubt. And layer that on top of the context in the Bay Area that they just killed one of the best products in many markets. They're certainly pressured by the revenue realities of operating in more competitive markets without the hometown loyalty they're accustomed to in Seattle. The more "blah" they become the more they have to compete on price. And I suspect BE is a direct result of their inability to retain and expand the California bustomer base.

eponymous_coward

That's my stake in the ground (the GARR/LFG is toast as a result of BE), we'll see if I am right.

You'd have to go back a ways to see it, but low intra-CA prices were there before during VX's expansion as well as low prices up and down the coast (I remember $39 SEA-SFO, $49 SEA-LAX and cheap intra-CA too). What happened was VX realized they weren't going to be able to lose money on every sale and make up for it on volume without running out of VC (they had to do capital calls at various points) and slammed the brakes on their expansion. The market stabilized because VX settled for a fairly modest intra-CA presence (SAN/LAX-SFO something like 4x-6x daily, well below WN). WN is playing out of the same playbook right now, and seeing how much pain AS is willing to take before they go "nope" like they're doing on SFO/LAX-transcon. AS's exposure is even bigger because they also are serving SJC, BUR, SNA (fortunately for them they are also way bigger than VX was).

The sequel's going to be when all of a sudden there's OAK/SJC/SAN-Hawaii competition and WN enters those markets.

I agree. It's not NK for sure, but it LOOKS like the plan is "accept that you can't get a premium on anything in CA markets and offer a worse transcon F product for cheaper than AA/DL/UA, a worse Y intra-CA product for the same price than WN (fortunately, the same Y products as AA/UA/DL), serve enough destinations, and hope enough leisure enthusiasts like MP to accept that the network is well behind the Big Four. Muddle along and scrap for whatever market share you can get. The cost efficiencies you have will make it work, mostly. It does for the Big Three, why not you?"

I really wonder how long they can keep the Xerox machines from copying the rest of AA/DL/UA's loyalty scheme, though.

Plus the usual "X is jumping off a bridge, you'd better do it too" from Wall Street. And hey, if it adds $100 million annual revenue...

nsx

That $27 is up to $38 now. Hyperinflation!

I loved VX because, contrary to perception, VX initiated the best intra-CA fare deals and WN silently followed. To be informed of these secret WN fare deals I simply subscribed to VX emails! WN won LAX-SFO based flight frequency, free changes, and IROPS performance (e.g. alternate flights to OAK), not on price.

If AS wants to win in CA, it needs to match WN on change policy and flight frequency in CA markets, including OAK (please!!). Maybe even on Companion Pass. It will be expensive, but AS already spent big on VX. In for a penny, in for a pound. Go big or go home.

United Express did this for a year or two: They matched WN's policies in WN markets but not elsewhere. WN drove them out. Can Alaska do better?

nsx

"X got paid $100M to jump off a bridge. So jump already!"

eponymous_coward

It's a pretty big proposition to match WN on intra-CA flight frequency; WN is 9x SFO-LAX today, 7x SFO-SAN, 6x SFO-LAS (yeah, I know, but it might as well BE intra-CA), 3x SFO-SNA, 5x SFO-BUR.

Multiply by SAN, SJC, LAX, BUR, SNA, ONT , SMF and OAK and recall that AS is smaller than WN (and can't strip SEA, PDX, ANC because that's robbing Peter to pay Paul) and you see the problem.

And don't forget PHX (AS barely even serves CA-PHX, but SAN-PHX and LAX-PHX are big markets).

I do see that AS is trying on SJC-BUR/SNA/SAN for size, though using RJs. They probably need to do more of this. The problem is an intra-CA expansion to WN scales is something Wall Street is going to scream about, because it will cost BUCKETS of money.

channa

Yeah, BUR-SJC is as low as $90 one way in F. A real winner.

They've been doing SMF-SAN as well. 3x a day, which is reasonable -- 6a, 2p, and 7p. Then in the winter, they've now changed it to 2p, 7p, and 8p. Not sure how that makes any sense. I get that's probably better use of the equipment, but it removes any morning frequency and floods the evening market.

islaygirl

exit row available (free) at booking to MVP and above, 24 hours (still free? not sure) for everyone else.

jrl767

ucdtim17

To be clear, there already is competition (HA); WN will be more competition, from a competitor with significantly larger size, more feed and larger FF bases.

SJC ORD LDR

Let's see - wider seat, no middle seat, assigned seating (knowing where you are before hand), ability to buy more legroom or a wider seat. There are plenty of reasons to choose an AS E175 over a 737. Besides after the CRJ, the 737 is my absolute least favorite plane.

PV_Premier

i'm still flying SMF-SAN on WN. 6am departure means 4am wakeup call, arrive at 7:15, a solid 2 hours before I need to be in SAN. meanwhile, WN has a departure at 7:30 or some such time, which means a 5:30am wakeup aka "just another day" for me. oh and if i need to be there earlier, they also have a 5:50am I think, plus one at 9, another at 10:30 and so on. hard to beat 90 minute frequencies regardless of how great your product or program are.

AS has been hopping that morning departure back and forth between 6-7am, but WN always has both options.

with respect to the winter schedule I wonder if AS is planning to drop a frequency in a future update and fly it just twice a day. it wouldnt surprise me, honestly.

eponymous_coward

Many of those reasons exist or existed on RJs UA/AA/DL fly or flew. On one-ish hour flights those factors you've mentioned haven't even been a speed bump for WN gaining and retaining massive intra-CA market share. I am completely unconvinced they're going to turn into major plusses for AS if they aren't competitive on schedule and price given that history, as well as not offering a compelling value proposition other than "Hey! You! Leisure Enthusiast! Fly Us! We're slightly less sucky on policy than UA/AA/DL, but just realize we're still going to punish you if you want low fares. We can check the boxes on having attractive award redemption options, a credit card with bells and whistles, and giving you extra legroom in coach. Oh and our F will pretty nice. Eventually (the product consistency is still a mess due to our recent acquisition). Except if you fly transcon (but then it's cheaper than the other guys)".

Yes, I know, a lot of FT hates WN's model and loves F upgrades. FT is also the far end of a distribution of the traveling population. WN has made a very successful large airline out of proving time and time again you don't need first class, extra legroom seats, RJs, or assigned seating to be a very successful large airline, as long as you offer a distinctive and unique value proposition that people can latch onto, plus lots of frequencies at prices that are competitive. I would not want to bet against them proving you don't need Basic Economy either, and holding off all the Xerox Basic Economy airlines in their core markets (like CA).

Fun fact: WN had larger market share at LAX and SFO than VX did when AS bought VX. That's not accounting for SJC, SAN, OAK, SNA, BUR, SMF, LGB, ONT. VX tried to be CA's airline. WN actually IS much closer to being CA's airline given being top dog at most of the large metro airports, or reasonably "close to the top" in the ones that are fractured like SFO/LAX. I'm wondering exactly how AS is going to snatch CA market share aside from just bottom feeding and hoping their lower costs let them eke out some money. I don't get it, but that may just be me being a traveler and severely under-qualified to be an airline executive. I guess we'll find out in the months to come.

milypan

Well, on the plus side, as long as their network remains mainly intra-West Coast flights, there's little cost to having a mileage-based program!

jhurwitz

This is what I saw last time I LFGed:

"I acknowledge that my requested or confirmed First Class or Premium Class upgrade will be lost by changing to a lower fare, my original seat may no longer be available or complimentary, and that if I am on the waitlist for an upgrade, I will lose my current spot in the list."

(And this was when changing from an R fare to a $40 cheaper R fare. My fare class didn't change at all.)

They already say "my original seat may no longer be available." All they need to do is add a few more terms to this list, and then they can say LFG into a BE fare puts you into BE.

SJC ORD LDR

It's going to be a mess for years just like any other airline merger. I think we also realize that getting itself into a bidding war between AS and B6 was the best thing that ever happened for the company. It would have never done as well if it kept on flying as a standalone company. Their business model was going to fail once fuel prices increased.

I wouldn't be too surprised if AS really cuts back at both SFO and LAX and concentrates at SJC and SAN, which are not as saturated from competition other than WN. VX never had a unique route out of SFO or LAX. B6 was able to find a niche flying to places no one else wanted to go from JFK and BOS. Maybe AS will be able to do that from SJC and SAN. They can't out of SFO or LAX.

I also think Basic Economy is something that had to happen. Hopefully, they are more humane than DL and allow you to choose a seat in the back of the plane at booking. If everyone else is doing it, you're going to be left out if you don't.

Finally I don't fly intra-California. If I need to go somewhere, I just hop in my car and drive. The exception would be SAN, but I really haven't had to be down there in 5 years.