AC/CX sign codeshare deal for Canada/S.E. Asia and reciprocal FFM earning/redemption
Jan 3, 2017, 1:00 pm
#92
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None of us know, it just doesn't seem terribly reasonable, for a couple of reasons.
Cathay currently sends five planes a day to Canada, 4/5 of which depart again just about as fast as it's possible to turn a 777 around.
CX824 - arrives YYZ 1355, departs 1555
CX826 - arrives YYZ 2025, departs 0145
CX856 - arrives YVR 0755, departs 0925
CX837 - arrives YVR 1315, departs 1445
CX888 - arrives YVR 2125, departs 2250 for JFK
- return JFK-YVR-HKG departs YVR 0205
I feel like everyone here is familiar with the idea that an airliner only makes money when it's in the air, but let's say for the sake of this little thought experiment that YVR-YYZ is somehow more profitable, per unit of time, than YVR-HKG or YYZ-HKG, since that's the only reason Cathay would have to pull them away from what they're already doing.
So, to free up aircraft for a YYZ-YVR leg, you'd have to decide that this was more profitable than having the same aircraft return to Hong Kong. Since CX have been gradually adding more segments to Canada, with prices that are consistently equal or higher to AC's, it seems reasonable to assume that CX are getting what they want out of these flights already.
But let's say you do it anyway, and throw your existing return legs to Hong Kong out the window, because you really, really want that sweet, sweet Canadian-domestic money. For the sake of argument, we'll assume the return flights to Hong Kong just sort of work themselves out, and CX doesn't give up any carrying capacity. That's nonsense, but let's set it aside for the moment anyway.
CX824 could do a YYZ-YVR leg departing around 1600, arriving Vancouver 1800, and leave for HKG around 2000, but that would land in HKG just after midnight. We'll call this one a "maybe".
CX826 could do a YYZ-YVR leg departing around 2300, but that would put it in Vancouver at almost exactly the time as CX889. So, either you have two 777s leaving together at two in the morning, or you leave one overnight for several hours for a first-thing-in-the-morning departure. Seems unlikely.
CX856 could do a YVR-YYZ leg departing around 0930. If it did YVR-YYZ return, it'd be back in Vancouver around 10PM, in time for a midnight departure to HKG, or, heck, another red-eye to Toronto, so we'll call this a "maybe".
CX837 could do a YVR-YYZ leg departing around 1500, landing in Toronto 22:30. If you do a return to Vancouver, again, you're competing against yourself with 889, but if you go onwards from Toronto, you've got the same problem with 827. Seems unlikely
CX888 is already occupied doing the YVR-JFK-YVR round-trip. This route has been running long enough that it's reasonable to assume CX are getting what they want out of it, whether that's profit, or connection capacity, or whatever. Calling this one "highly unlikely".
So, we're looking at one or two YVR-YYZ leg, max, and two or three for YYZ-YVR.
Cathay's A350 seat 38/28/214 in J/PY/Y, total of 280 bums in seats. New plane, so we'll assume that seating configuration stays for the foreseeable future.
Their 777 are currently 40/32/268 and 6/53/34/182, soon going up to 40/32/294 and 6/53/34/195, respectively. I think you'd have a very hard time selling more than a few F seats per week on that route, but regardless, you're talking about 300-350 seats per flight, where AC and WS are running over 5,000 seats a day, combined.
So, you tell me: given the limitations laid out above, and trends that suggest Cathay are already doing well enough on their HKG-Canada routes to want to add more flights, what is their potential win scenario for entering the Canadian domestic market?
Cathay currently sends five planes a day to Canada, 4/5 of which depart again just about as fast as it's possible to turn a 777 around.
CX824 - arrives YYZ 1355, departs 1555
CX826 - arrives YYZ 2025, departs 0145
CX856 - arrives YVR 0755, departs 0925
CX837 - arrives YVR 1315, departs 1445
CX888 - arrives YVR 2125, departs 2250 for JFK
- return JFK-YVR-HKG departs YVR 0205
I feel like everyone here is familiar with the idea that an airliner only makes money when it's in the air, but let's say for the sake of this little thought experiment that YVR-YYZ is somehow more profitable, per unit of time, than YVR-HKG or YYZ-HKG, since that's the only reason Cathay would have to pull them away from what they're already doing.
So, to free up aircraft for a YYZ-YVR leg, you'd have to decide that this was more profitable than having the same aircraft return to Hong Kong. Since CX have been gradually adding more segments to Canada, with prices that are consistently equal or higher to AC's, it seems reasonable to assume that CX are getting what they want out of these flights already.
But let's say you do it anyway, and throw your existing return legs to Hong Kong out the window, because you really, really want that sweet, sweet Canadian-domestic money. For the sake of argument, we'll assume the return flights to Hong Kong just sort of work themselves out, and CX doesn't give up any carrying capacity. That's nonsense, but let's set it aside for the moment anyway.
CX824 could do a YYZ-YVR leg departing around 1600, arriving Vancouver 1800, and leave for HKG around 2000, but that would land in HKG just after midnight. We'll call this one a "maybe".
CX826 could do a YYZ-YVR leg departing around 2300, but that would put it in Vancouver at almost exactly the time as CX889. So, either you have two 777s leaving together at two in the morning, or you leave one overnight for several hours for a first-thing-in-the-morning departure. Seems unlikely.
CX856 could do a YVR-YYZ leg departing around 0930. If it did YVR-YYZ return, it'd be back in Vancouver around 10PM, in time for a midnight departure to HKG, or, heck, another red-eye to Toronto, so we'll call this a "maybe".
CX837 could do a YVR-YYZ leg departing around 1500, landing in Toronto 22:30. If you do a return to Vancouver, again, you're competing against yourself with 889, but if you go onwards from Toronto, you've got the same problem with 827. Seems unlikely
CX888 is already occupied doing the YVR-JFK-YVR round-trip. This route has been running long enough that it's reasonable to assume CX are getting what they want out of it, whether that's profit, or connection capacity, or whatever. Calling this one "highly unlikely".
So, we're looking at one or two YVR-YYZ leg, max, and two or three for YYZ-YVR.
Cathay's A350 seat 38/28/214 in J/PY/Y, total of 280 bums in seats. New plane, so we'll assume that seating configuration stays for the foreseeable future.
Their 777 are currently 40/32/268 and 6/53/34/182, soon going up to 40/32/294 and 6/53/34/195, respectively. I think you'd have a very hard time selling more than a few F seats per week on that route, but regardless, you're talking about 300-350 seats per flight, where AC and WS are running over 5,000 seats a day, combined.
So, you tell me: given the limitations laid out above, and trends that suggest Cathay are already doing well enough on their HKG-Canada routes to want to add more flights, what is their potential win scenario for entering the Canadian domestic market?
Fine theory and modelling but the reality is that key to the economics of CX making money flying YYZ-YVR is filling the front cabin(s). And key to filling front cabins is providing frequency and flexibility, as well as reliability.
Only two of your examples based on CX's current schedule would really work to meet the needs of the key business traveler market. The 13:55 arrival into YYZ could become a 5p flight to YVR (though that's a bit early for grabbing end of business day trade who'd likely prefer a 19:00 departure to make it from office closing around 5p and getting out to YYZ through rush hour traffic -- UPX is still not attractive to this crowd. Anything else ex-YYZ around 22:00 would get to YVR after curfew. In the other direction only one flight, the 21:25 arrival could work as a red eye to YYZ (though isn't this the flight used to JFK, a far more lucrative destination?).
So only two flights really work in each direction to meet key timing needs of customers who would fill the front cabins. It's not worth running flights solely based on the back of the bus. But another factor comes into play: reliability. Relying on planes that are arriving from 6K-8K miles away is one issue, bad weather at either end (typhoons in Asia, winter storms in Canada) can reduce reliability with no back up for those high-paying customers who if an AC flight is cancelled, would be protected and reach their destinations within hours of their original schedule. AC can often (and does when its Asian or European planes continue across the country on a domestic run) also substitute a plane if the inbound is running too late, or the scheduled plane goes mechanical. And any delays or other problems with this intra-Canada operation would certainly impact the reliability of the far more lucrative and critical Asian service.
So too many variables would not make this economically viable or practical for any foreign airline to add such a tag route, even if it had the right to carry local originating customers. Same would go for an EK (or BA, LH, AF) from the other side of the country.
Jan 3, 2017, 1:43 pm
#93
Join Date: Oct 2013
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Fine theory and modelling but the reality is that key to the economics of CX making money flying YYZ-YVR is filling the front cabin(s). And key to filling front cabins is providing frequency and flexibility, as well as reliability.
Only two of your examples based on CX's current schedule would really work to meet the needs of the key business traveler market.
So too many variables would not make this economically viable or practical for any foreign airline to add such a tag route, even if it had the right to carry local originating customers. Same would go for an EK (or BA, LH, AF) from the other side of the country.
Only two of your examples based on CX's current schedule would really work to meet the needs of the key business traveler market.
So too many variables would not make this economically viable or practical for any foreign airline to add such a tag route, even if it had the right to carry local originating customers. Same would go for an EK (or BA, LH, AF) from the other side of the country.
...and the front cabin is fine, but if your schedule juggling works out such that you've got 700 seats leaving YVR at 0230, a 53% load in Y isn't doing you any favours either.
Jan 3, 2017, 1:44 pm
#94
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There are very few countries in the world that would open up their domestic air market to foreign carriers to carry locals. YVR-JFK is a fifth freedom, not a domestic route. Philippine Airlines flies it as well. There is absolutely no chance that CX/PR would ever be able to fly YVR-YYZ with local traffic rights.
Jan 3, 2017, 2:53 pm
#95
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https://www.transportation.gov/polic...al-air-service
If remote Canadians deserve subsidized air services for national unity, connectivity, and for whatever purpose so deemed by Parliament - then have the federal government raise TAXES and DIRECTLY provide the subsidy in a transparent manner. I see NO reason that Canadians would object to higher taxes so that all travelers, including the wealthiest of Canadians, can fly for less to their favourite fishing lodge, ski resort, or national sporting event
Or should we just ignore ALL the complaints about too high taxes in this country.
But all this reminds me of the famous quote "The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest amount of feathers with the least possible amount of hissing."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Baptiste_Colbert
So, if I further understand correctly, Shareholder is NOT only anti-capitalist, but in favour of higher taxes for all Canadians, whether directly through an act of Parliament, or through a hidden subsidy built-in to every domestic mainline ticket?
If the purpose of limiting airline competition in Canada is so that remote communities can retain air services, where in the Air Canada Public Participation Act, or the Westjet corporate charter say they MUST fly to unprofitable destinations, and the only reason they remain doing so is because Ottawa allows over-charging to big city folks?
Jan 3, 2017, 3:33 pm
#96
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Well, if your right, then what is everyone afraid of?
Strikes me reason for all this fret about foreign competition and schedule/routing explanations that fits a status quo scenario (and no such thing btw...) all relates to hidden biases about foreign capital, and nothing to do with promoting opportunities for Canadians and visitors alike to have access to global best-practice.
So why not try a change in domestic access policy, and if NOT used in the marketplace becomes an interesting and failed innovation - or maybe some foreign airlines give it a try, lose some money, and walk-away.
As long as Transport Canada insists on a domestic Operating Certificate for domestic flights - as does Switzerland for internal flights by Etihad Regional and Swiss International, 100% owned by foreigners, then Canadians will have access to a safe but possibly short-lived alternative.
And so some FTers continue to bury their heads in the sand, with the hope the real world will pass them by and so to avoid taking chances.
http://wonderopolis.org/wonder/do-os...s-in-the-sand/
Give change a try, you might find it works
Strikes me reason for all this fret about foreign competition and schedule/routing explanations that fits a status quo scenario (and no such thing btw...) all relates to hidden biases about foreign capital, and nothing to do with promoting opportunities for Canadians and visitors alike to have access to global best-practice.
So why not try a change in domestic access policy, and if NOT used in the marketplace becomes an interesting and failed innovation - or maybe some foreign airlines give it a try, lose some money, and walk-away.
As long as Transport Canada insists on a domestic Operating Certificate for domestic flights - as does Switzerland for internal flights by Etihad Regional and Swiss International, 100% owned by foreigners, then Canadians will have access to a safe but possibly short-lived alternative.
And so some FTers continue to bury their heads in the sand, with the hope the real world will pass them by and so to avoid taking chances.
http://wonderopolis.org/wonder/do-os...s-in-the-sand/
Give change a try, you might find it works
Jan 3, 2017, 3:47 pm
#97
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: YOW
Programs: AC SE, FOTSG Platinum
Posts: 5,734
Well, if your right, then what is everyone afraid of?
Strikes me reason for all this fret about foreign competition and schedule/routing explanations that fits a status quo scenario (and no such thing btw...) all relates to hidden biases about foreign capital, and nothing to do with promoting opportunities for Canadians and visitors alike to have access to global best-practice.
Strikes me reason for all this fret about foreign competition and schedule/routing explanations that fits a status quo scenario (and no such thing btw...) all relates to hidden biases about foreign capital, and nothing to do with promoting opportunities for Canadians and visitors alike to have access to global best-practice.
We were all talking about the Cathay-AC codeshare announcement, until someone turned this into a discussion about duopoly.
Jan 3, 2017, 7:23 pm
#98
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: YOW
Programs: AC SE, FOTSG Platinum
Posts: 5,734
I'm sorry, I've abruptly forgotten what it was we were talking about here.
Like I was in the middle of a train of thought, and it just... disappeared, without explanation.
As a result, I've lost interest in continuing the discussion.
Like I was in the middle of a train of thought, and it just... disappeared, without explanation.
As a result, I've lost interest in continuing the discussion.
Jan 3, 2017, 7:37 pm
#99
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Please note a few posts have been deleted as the discussion has wandered a little far afield. I can appreciate members sharing information about one of the airline's involved in this agreement but as it doesn't pertain to this deal it isn't germane. Let's please return this thread to relevant information only.
tcook052
Ac forum moderator
tcook052
Ac forum moderator
Jan 3, 2017, 9:52 pm
#100
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Hong Kong
Programs: CX,HX,DL,UA
Posts: 29
Can someone explain what will be offered in terms of AC "mile accumulation" on CX? as per the PR, will i get AQD/AQM's on code share flights operated by CX? for example, HKG- KUL?
On the topic of HX, I flew HX this summer in J (HKG - BKK). The J product does not compare to CX or SQ, TG, etc.. Its a marginal product, but is very good value. I paid $300 RT (HKG - BKK)... same that I would have paid on CX or TG in Y; At that price, its very good value.
On the topic of HX, I flew HX this summer in J (HKG - BKK). The J product does not compare to CX or SQ, TG, etc.. Its a marginal product, but is very good value. I paid $300 RT (HKG - BKK)... same that I would have paid on CX or TG in Y; At that price, its very good value.
Jan 12, 2017, 9:07 pm
#101
Join Date: Feb 2007
Programs: AC*E50K, CX Gold, SPG Gold
Posts: 295
Today is supposed to be the day (Jan 12th), but apparently CX flights to SE Asia still don't show up as codeshare on aircanada.com. What's happening Air Canada?
AC domestic flights are already showing up as codeshare on CX.com.
AC domestic flights are already showing up as codeshare on CX.com.
Jan 12, 2017, 11:18 pm
#102
Join Date: May 2012
Location: BKK/SIN/YYZ/YUL
Programs: DL, AC, Bonvoy, Accor, Hilton
Posts: 2,924
As of now 13 January, Canada EDT. No options for CX or KA to BKK. Nada. Nothing. Rien. In fact they had these options 6 months ago. Instead, the AC fare has jumbped to approx $6400, on what is usually $5200-$5800 using HKG for transit.
As an aside, in the past year, I have seen a reduction in competition between *A carriers on the Asian routes with fares close to parity amongst the main carriers. One World's Finnair and BA are having their sale at $3400. I am getting a bad feeling about AC's behaviour.
Jan 19, 2017, 12:56 pm
#104
Join Date: Mar 2014
Programs: AC SE100k, Marriott Titanium, UA Silver
Posts: 2,648
Aeroplan site updated Jan 19, 2017:
s of January 19, 2017 Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon have joined the Aeroplan Program as Aeroplan’s newest airline partners.
Earn miles for travel on select routes operated by Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon. Some exceptions may apply.
Eligible routes between Hong Kong and
- Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Phuket, Thailand
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Cebu, Philippines
- Manila, Philippines
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hanoi, Vietnam
Cathay Pacific is a Hong Kong-based airline offering scheduled passenger and cargo services to some 200 destinations worldwide, using an ultra-modern fleet of more than 140 wide-body aircraft, including the technologically advanced Airbus A350.
Cathay Dragon is a wholly owned subsidiary of Cathay Pacific. The airline operates a fleet of 42 passenger aircraft serving 52 regional destinations, including 23 cities in Mainland China. Cathay Dragon is widely recognised for its product and service quality, winning numerous awards and accolades in recent years.
Aeroplan Miles earned on all eligible Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon flights do not count toward Air Canada Altitude™ status.
Star Alliance™ Gold and Silver Benefits are not extended by Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon.
Redemption on Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon will come later.
Find out how to earn miles aboard Cathay Pacific right now.
Find out how to earn miles aboard Cathay Dragon right now.
TM Star Alliance is a registered trademark of the Star Alliance Members.
TM Air Canada Altitude is a Trademark of Air Canada
Earn miles for travel on select routes operated by Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon. Some exceptions may apply.
Eligible routes between Hong Kong and
- Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Phuket, Thailand
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Cebu, Philippines
- Manila, Philippines
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hanoi, Vietnam
Cathay Pacific is a Hong Kong-based airline offering scheduled passenger and cargo services to some 200 destinations worldwide, using an ultra-modern fleet of more than 140 wide-body aircraft, including the technologically advanced Airbus A350.
Cathay Dragon is a wholly owned subsidiary of Cathay Pacific. The airline operates a fleet of 42 passenger aircraft serving 52 regional destinations, including 23 cities in Mainland China. Cathay Dragon is widely recognised for its product and service quality, winning numerous awards and accolades in recent years.
Aeroplan Miles earned on all eligible Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon flights do not count toward Air Canada Altitude™ status.
Star Alliance™ Gold and Silver Benefits are not extended by Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon.
Redemption on Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon will come later.
Find out how to earn miles aboard Cathay Pacific right now.
Find out how to earn miles aboard Cathay Dragon right now.
TM Star Alliance is a registered trademark of the Star Alliance Members.
TM Air Canada Altitude is a Trademark of Air Canada
EARN UP TO 150% OF THE MILES YOU FLY
You can earn Aeroplan Miles on select routes, departing from Hong Kong operated by Cathay Pacific.
EARNING AEROPLAN MILES WITH CATHAY PACIFIC
Earn miles when you purchase an eligible booking class and travel on select routes operated by Cathay Pacific. Some exceptions may apply.
Eligible routes operated by Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon between Hong Kong and:
- Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Phuket, Thailand
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Cebu, Philippines
- Manila, Philippines
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hanoi, Vietnam
Aeroplan Miles earned on all eligible Cathay Pacific flights do not count towards Air Canada Altitude™ status.
Be sure to provide your Aeroplan number when you make a reservation.
Always save your itinerary receipt, ticket (where available) and boarding pass until the miles have been credited to your account. If the miles for a recent activity have not been credited to your Aeroplan account, you can request to have the missing miles within six months of the activity date. Learn more about Requesting Mileage Credit
Please refer to the charts below to see how many miles you will earn.
Codeshare flights operated by Cathay Pacific and marketed by Air Canada; Cathay Pacific determine how many miles you earn for your flights. Therefore, the booking class that appears on your ticket may differ from the booking class that the operating airline uses to determine flight miles earned. Refer to the Eligible Flights Tab of the operating carrier.
Mileage earned is based on actual miles flown, the percentage of booking class accumulation and the minimum mile rule.
Charter flights operated by Cathay Pacific are not eligible.
Please refer to the Terms & Conditions Tab for additional information regarding flight activities.
You can earn Aeroplan Miles on select routes, departing from Hong Kong operated by Cathay Pacific.
EARNING AEROPLAN MILES WITH CATHAY PACIFIC
Earn miles when you purchase an eligible booking class and travel on select routes operated by Cathay Pacific. Some exceptions may apply.
Eligible routes operated by Cathay Pacific or Cathay Dragon between Hong Kong and:
- Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Phuket, Thailand
- Bangkok, Thailand
- Cebu, Philippines
- Manila, Philippines
- Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Hanoi, Vietnam
Aeroplan Miles earned on all eligible Cathay Pacific flights do not count towards Air Canada Altitude™ status.
Be sure to provide your Aeroplan number when you make a reservation.
Always save your itinerary receipt, ticket (where available) and boarding pass until the miles have been credited to your account. If the miles for a recent activity have not been credited to your Aeroplan account, you can request to have the missing miles within six months of the activity date. Learn more about Requesting Mileage Credit
Please refer to the charts below to see how many miles you will earn.
Codeshare flights operated by Cathay Pacific and marketed by Air Canada; Cathay Pacific determine how many miles you earn for your flights. Therefore, the booking class that appears on your ticket may differ from the booking class that the operating airline uses to determine flight miles earned. Refer to the Eligible Flights Tab of the operating carrier.
Mileage earned is based on actual miles flown, the percentage of booking class accumulation and the minimum mile rule.
Charter flights operated by Cathay Pacific are not eligible.
Please refer to the Terms & Conditions Tab for additional information regarding flight activities.
Jan 19, 2017, 1:20 pm
#105
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