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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

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View Poll Results: Is an American Airlines/US Airways merger good for the traveling public?
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Old Nov 12, 2013, 2:24 pm
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Note:

There is an existing thread in the AA forum that may be useful to US and AA Flyertalkers:
US-AA Merger: Just the Facts thread

As facts become posted, that should be the place to look.

Merger discussion, speculation, and other questions can be directed here, or the similar thread in the AA forum:
MERGER: US and AA 9 Dec 2013 and implications for AA flyers (new)

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated, and now closed to new posts)
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US/AA merger- MASTER DISCUSSION THREAD/incl 'when will US leave STAR'

 
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 1:44 pm
  #1276  
 
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I"m happy, I"ll definitely be able to buy up to CP from Platinum. No guarantees, that would be the case on the new AA
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 1:52 pm
  #1277  
 
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Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick
I'm very disappointed, because a combined US-AA route network would be near ideal for me. Right now, I can't maintain Platinum on AA without flying a disproportionate amount of 50-seaters and tight-in-Y CR7s. Adding in DCA really takes care of that, and CLT helps as well - especially the 10pm CLT-ORD flight.

I bought into a AA Platinum challenge because I had a short-term project which worked perfectly within the 3-month window (lots of trips, good ability to pay out of pocket for KUP fares). I'll probably use it enough next year to pay for the $240 cost in free MCE seats, but there's no way I can actually qualify the hard way next year.
This is far from over. There is very high chance that US/AA will survive this in the court.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 1:56 pm
  #1278  
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What is suppose to be the long term plan at US minus a merger? Where can it grow? And the WN/FL merger puts more competive pressure in the regions where US is currently the strongest. It is now a faded flower in the NYC market. Sure, it solidified its position at DCA. But the perimeter rule sort of limits how much you can do with it.

If I were a US employee, I'd be very PO'ed right now.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:12 pm
  #1279  
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Originally Posted by virtuo0
This is far from over. There is very high chance that US/AA will survive this in the court.
How many mergers have been completely successfully after winning in court? Generally when the DOJ sues that kills the merger as most smart companies don't want to be tied up in the very long limbo that it's going to take to fight this. I'm not so sure Parker will think like this though. Oh and if you think they're going to win on the they let UA/CO and DL/NW go through argument you're extremely mistaken as that isn't any sort of legal grounds.
Cheers
Howie
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:21 pm
  #1280  
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Originally Posted by Fanjet
What is suppose to be the long term plan at US minus a merger? Where can it grow? And the WN/FL merger puts more competive pressure in the regions where US is currently the strongest. It is now a faded flower in the NYC market. Sure, it solidified its position at DCA. But the perimeter rule sort of limits how much you can do with it.
Internationally is a good start. @:-) There's at least one whole continent that they don't service at all. Even if they could get a decent flight or two to NRT to start, that would open a lot of feed to/from the *A Asia system.

Originally Posted by stockmanjr
How many mergers have been completely successfully after winning in court? Generally when the DOJ sues that kills the merger as most smart companies don't want to be tied up in the very long limbo that it's going to take to fight this. I'm not so sure Parker will think like this though. Oh and if you think they're going to win on the they let UA/CO and DL/NW go through argument you're extremely mistaken as that isn't any sort of legal grounds.
Agreed. I think US would have a hard time showing how this would increase frequency and competition when DL and UA have shown the exact opposite.

I could see a merger going thru if either were on the verge of having their bones picked over by vultures. However since both CEOs have said they could operate on their own and be just fine, it makes it harder to justify it.

I think DOJ will have a much easier time proving that the merger and consolidation will be bad for consumers than Dougie and Co. proving it will be good for consumers.

Parker's also said that this is going to scuttle the merger until at least later next year. Eventually, there will come a point that one, or both, of the companies will abandon the merger as it's not worth it.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:23 pm
  #1281  
 
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Originally Posted by Fanjet
What is suppose to be the long term plan at US minus a merger? Where can it grow? And the WN/FL merger puts more competive pressure in the regions where US is currently the strongest. It is now a faded flower in the NYC market. Sure, it solidified its position at DCA. But the perimeter rule sort of limits how much you can do with it.
Why couldn't US (or any airline) just grow by adding airports not currently in its network? A merger isn't necessary to grow. I understand there are various costs involved in getting a new airport and route schedule up and running, but if it would be profitable, it can be done (either domestically or internationally).
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:24 pm
  #1282  
 
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Originally Posted by Superguy
Internationally is a good start. @:-) There's at least one whole continent that they don't service at all.

LOL.... They barely service 3 continents as is.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:31 pm
  #1283  
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Originally Posted by Superguy
Internationally is a good start. @:-) There's at least one whole continent that they don't service at all.
Yes. For a very good reason. PHX-Asia would bleed cash. And looking at the O&D figures for CLT-GIG, it appears the red ink flows more on that flight than does the bubbly. US has no JV/ATI partnership. AA, UA, and DL all do. That is extremely important. US can grow in Europe, but that's about it. So the amount of large corporate contracts it can secure (and that is where the money is at) is limited. 'Well, we can fly you here, but not there, or there either" is not a strong selling point. Like I said, if I were a US employee, I'd be very p***ed right now.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:33 pm
  #1284  
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Originally Posted by uva185
LOL.... They barely service 3 continents as is.
South America wasn't lost on that.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:40 pm
  #1285  
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Originally Posted by Superguy

I see DOJ regarding this much like AT&T/T-Mobile's attempted merger. While some large mergers were allowed to happen in the past, it's just a bridge too far at this point. Consolidation's been bad for the consumer in the wireless industry as it brought higher prices, less innovation, less consumer-friendly practices, and generally stale offerings. Barring some serious concessions, I don't see how further consolidation of the airline industry is going to be good for the consumer. We're already seeing higher prices, less service, less consumer-friendly practices, and stale offerings. I don't see how allowing AA and US to merge would counteract that trend.
+1
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:43 pm
  #1286  
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Originally Posted by Fanjet
Yes. For a very good reason. PHX-Asia would bleed cash. And looking at the O&D figures for CLT-GIG, it appears the red ink flows more on that flight than does the bubbly. US has no JV/ATI partnership. AA, UA, and DL all do. That is extremely important. US can grow in Europe, but that's about it. So the amount of large corporate contracts it can secure (and that is where the money is at) is limited. 'Well, we can fly you here, but not there, or there either" is not a strong selling point. Like I said, if I were a US employee, I'd be very p***ed right now.
Doesn't have to be NRT-PHX. There are other possibilities where it could be supported that has good O/D traffic. UA and other *A carriers (NH, OZ) make SEA work even though none have a particularly strong presence in that area. Could also do one out of SFO or LAX.

I think we all know that PHX will see limited Europe and Asia service, if any, due to the heat.

While none of those are are US hubs, there would be enough O/D traffic plus feed from UA that could make it viable. Plus most US fliers are used to connecting so one connection more may not be a huge deal.

Bottom line: it doesn't have to be done from PHX. SEA alone shows it can be done.
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:48 pm
  #1287  
 
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Originally Posted by Fanjet
If I were a US employee, I'd be very PO'ed right now.
otoh, if you were a US passenger, you would be very happy right now

Makes you wonder if Parker's zeal to tackle the Justice Dept, spending whatever it takes, will be well received by stockholders who inconveniently are also passengers he is about to screw?
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:50 pm
  #1288  
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Originally Posted by Superguy

Bottom line: it doesn't have to be done from PHX. SEA alone shows it can be done.
SEA would be a suicide mission, given UA's already downsizing from 777s to 787s (and it won't shock me to see them leave the market in 18 months or so). You have DL (which has multiple frequencies and HND), UA and NH.

(UA also has historic reasons for NRT-SEA; SEA was a former focus city for them; they still have some remnants of that, that are slowly fading away.)
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 2:57 pm
  #1289  
 
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Originally Posted by GaryZ
otoh, if you were a US passenger, you would be very happy right now
^ Exactamundo. ^

(...with apologies to The Fonz.)
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Old Aug 13, 2013, 3:03 pm
  #1290  
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
SEA would be a suicide mission, given UA's already downsizing from 777s to 787s (and it won't shock me to see them leave the market in 18 months or so). You have DL (which has multiple frequencies and HND), UA and NH.

(UA also has historic reasons for NRT-SEA; SEA was a former focus city for them; they still have some remnants of that, that are slowly fading away.)
Would it really though? The A332 has similar capacity to a 787-8 (about 20 more seats on the A332), and would be about the same if US added something similar to E+. SEA also has a fairly large Japanese population.

SEA may have been a former focus city, but what's really there now? Some mainline flights to the hubs, with regionals to SFO and LAX thrown into the mix.

SEA may ultimately not be the best place for one, but it's certainly better than PHX would be.

SFO may be a better choice than SEA.

My point was that an international flight doesn't have to be from a hub to be successful.

A332 in theory could make it from PHL or CLT too. I'd see a west coast flight being more useful to the system as no one on the west coast would fly east to go to NRT.
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