Thanks for that!

Just a followup question -- does the upgrade likelihood also care about the passenger elite status once the instrument is from me (1K)? E.g. if I apply PP to a family member's itinerary of no status, is that yet another factor, or do they get upgraded (with whatever probability) like I would have?

Yes. See priority list: https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly...-priority.html

Status of the pax is important especially when not traveling with non-GS +P giftee.

Much appreciated --

I have a bit of dilemma (or just efficient spending puzzle) then. Would love to get any thoughts!

Months ago, I was able to find and book 100k C/J award space for a trip about a month from now, with some family, but on separate reservations. And it's a fine (in the new definition of "fine") redemption rate, ok 100k is the amount you have to pay now.

But in the meantime I earned PP from work travel, and I want to use those up.

Related to my questions above, the exact same flight is showing PN9 PZ0, and the economy fare is $1200 W class. So currently in my mind my valuation of the miles is slightly higher and I would be ok to spend cash plus get rid of these PP that will expire some time in April. And since you all said this is a likely upgrade, maybe go for it. (Please feel free to comment too on whether you think this is a reasonable call to spend $ and PP instead of miles in the new era of inflation...)

But I cannot book the revenue tickets without releasing the award seats probably (the system will kick out the award ticket I bet) if it sees duplicate names flying at the same time. So I have to release a sure thing (but less cost efficient) for a (small) gamble.

Or am I missing a potential other tactic here that I could employ? Thanks!

"Space available" being the key issue here. If there's a situation where space is available same-day in Y only but not in the upgraded cabin, you basically have 3 options: take the Y seat, take the next available seat in your upgraded cabin and plan on that (which may be days out), or book that latter option and also try to stand by on earlier flights which may or may not work out. Agents are often not very communicative as to there being those 3 options. It's not uncommon to read here on FT about someone during irrops being "forced" to travel in Y on another flight. That's not really the case if you're willing to wait for the next premium-cabin seat that can be confirmed. It's a matter of how much you want to (or must) stick to your original schedule vs how important the premium cabin is to you.

I'd book the revenue tickets and then :pnce ticketed, cancel the award. You can even call in and have an agent do that for you. UA is quick to warn about canceling duplicates, but the cancellations are not instantaneous.

But the upgrades might not clear within 24 hours of booking to know whether the strategy has succeeded? (or cancel the $ ticket) I.e. whether the revenue ticket got upgraded, to give up the sure award business seat?

Or do you think that it's likely to clear immediately / within 24 hours if PN9?

The upgrades might not clear at all, but PN9 PZ0 is as strong a favorable indicator as you can get shy of actually having PZ space.

Nobody kn:eek:ws. This is like a game show. You can go with the sure thing or spin the wheel and see what you get.

Makes sense. Yes, the gamble that has existed even back to SWU times.

Would you all value using up expiring (a few months from now) PP + $1200 instead of spending 100k miles? I am really on the fence about it.

I'd want to know what the route was, what day it was, what other flights on that route/day are, etc. bef;)re answering.

an upcoming Sunday, SFO-KIX, seems to be a sparsely filled route, maybe given the newness of the service restarting?

Sounds like y:cool:u've researched it and are ready to make the leap!

Well, at this point just debating whether saving 100k points and burning $1200 is worth it. Given how much UA has been devaluing points lately, maybe I should save my cash and forget about the expiring PP, and just use up the miles.

Well, y:pu have many months to use the PP.

It seems that SFO-KIX is an easy upgrade, but one would not give up a business seat using miles (IN class) to potentially burn the PPs.
Because OP still has time to make this decision, why not wait for PZ space to appear? When this happens, book the new ticket, request for PP upgrade, and then cancel the award ticket.
Good luck.