Mar 20, 2020, 9:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Nov 18, 2020, 10:23 pm
#1051
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: CMH
Programs: BA Gold, AA Plat, NK $9 fare club
Posts: 666
Nov 19, 2020, 2:55 pm
#1052
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
CEOs of 7 US airlines say they need more govt. money or else they may not be able to help distribute vaccines.
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
The CEOs of 7 U.S. airlines are demanding more taxpayer money. According to a letter to congressional leaders signed by the heads of American Airlines, United, Delta, Southwest, Alaska Airlines, JetBlue and Hawaiian Airlines, they want a re-up of payroll subsidies ‘before the end of the year’ or else they might not be able to help distribute vaccines, that somehow they wouldn’t be prepared to take cargo shipping business if we don’t also give them billions first.
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
Nov 19, 2020, 3:02 pm
#1053
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,809
CEOs of 7 US airlines say they need more govt. money or else they may not be able to help distribute vaccines.
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
How much in government handouts will they need to start serving actual food in F/J again?
Nov 19, 2020, 3:46 pm
#1054
Join Date: Mar 2018
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP. Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,134
CEOs of 7 US airlines say they need more govt. money or else they may not be able to help distribute vaccines.
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
Nov 21, 2020, 5:32 pm
#1055
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
Posts: 42,231
CEOs of 7 US airlines say they need more govt. money or else they may not be able to help distribute vaccines.
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
https://viewfromthewing.com/7-u-s-ai...nment-bailout/
So let me get this straight. Vaccines are the only chance to end the pandemic and the only chance for airlines to see increased volume of flights is for the pandemic to end.
But they're holding out for govt. handouts in order to be able to distribute the vaccines? Transporting vaccines would give them more business when they sorely need more business.
The chutzpah!
....this is really grasping at straws and is not going to win much sympathy from anyone. Just for this alone, they should be forced to zero out shareholder equity before any further hand outs, so they stop acting like little babies.
Nov 21, 2020, 7:31 pm
#1056
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
The money goes to flight attendants, not the airline. So the FA union made one CEO write this (likely AA), and every other CEO had to sign, or risk labor issues down the road.
It'll be ignored by the current Congress, and by the time the next Congress is seated, we'll be in phase 2 of vaccine distribution, so no one will care anymore...
It'll be ignored by the current Congress, and by the time the next Congress is seated, we'll be in phase 2 of vaccine distribution, so no one will care anymore...
Nov 23, 2020, 10:43 am
#1057
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,861
UA announces further steps to raise cash ---
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
Nov 29, 2020, 5:12 pm
#1059
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 9,011
UA announces further steps to raise cash ---
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
Dec 2, 2020, 3:11 am
#1060
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Delaware
Programs: UA Mileage Plus, Amtrak Guest Rewards
Posts: 1,397
So, with it being highly possible that vaccine distribution will begin before the end of the year, it’s possible that the worst is over.
Just one data point, but vacation bids are open now at my company and we (family) are already planning two trips for next year, Disney World take-2 with the kids in Late August and a couples trip in late October. While we want to wait a little longer to see how things will play out for August, we’re comfortable booking the couples trip very soon.
So, if people are comfortable enough to make reservations and the cash starts coming in, while UA is still running a reduced service, we would see the opposite of what we saw in March, where the cash instantly stopped coming in but they were still trying to run a close-to-normal schedule.
While I’m not a biz traveler and don’t know much about the needs of that, I can definitely see the leisure reservations picking up really soon.
Just one data point, but vacation bids are open now at my company and we (family) are already planning two trips for next year, Disney World take-2 with the kids in Late August and a couples trip in late October. While we want to wait a little longer to see how things will play out for August, we’re comfortable booking the couples trip very soon.
So, if people are comfortable enough to make reservations and the cash starts coming in, while UA is still running a reduced service, we would see the opposite of what we saw in March, where the cash instantly stopped coming in but they were still trying to run a close-to-normal schedule.
While I’m not a biz traveler and don’t know much about the needs of that, I can definitely see the leisure reservations picking up really soon.
Dec 2, 2020, 9:35 am
#1061
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
UA announces further steps to raise cash ---
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
Issuing up to additional 25M+ stock shares
and
Warrants to Purchase up to 4,763,841 Shares of Common Stock (related to US Treasury PSP funding)
Others more skilled in these matters will need to provide more color
1. Those who invested in UA months ago also had the option to invest a bit more at the same price. Those early investors are chosing to exercise that option. Basically means the investors feel it was a sound investment months ago, and now want more.
2. The govt has the right to some UA shares because of the assistance received. UA is simply creating a pool of this share to give the government.
This is all housekeeping.
UA's cash crunch is over which is why you're seeing them restart the Polaris retrofits and other long-lead time upgrades.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Dec 2, 2020 at 10:42 am Reason: merging consecutive posts by the same member
Dec 11, 2020, 10:05 pm
#1062
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,861
UA 8-K 11 December 2020
(updating 2020Q4 expected performance and thoughts about 2021)
(updating 2020Q4 expected performance and thoughts about 2021)
Item 7.01Regulation FD Disclosure.
United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL" and, together with United, the "Company"),continues to see a significant impact in demand for air travel. In the last month, ended December 10, 2020, there has been a continued deceleration in forward bookings as a result of the spike in COVID-19 cases and travel restrictions. As such, the Company now expects total revenue to be down close to70% in the fourth quarter of 2020 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
The Company now expects average daily cash burn during the fourth quarter of 2020 to be approximately $24 million to $26 million, plus $10 million of average debt principal payments and severance payments per day, driven by the continued deceleration in bookings, as well as a change in working capital which was due to a shift in timing of certain payments and receipts between quarters. For this purpose, "cash burn" is defined as net cash from operations,less investing and financing activities. Proceeds from the issuance of new debt (excluding expected aircraft financing), government grants associated with the Payroll Support Program of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (the "CARES Act"), issuance of new stock, net proceeds from the sale of short-term and other investments and changes in certain restricted cash balances are not included in this figure
.The Company does not expect the recovery to follow a linear path, however, recent positive results in vaccine development and efficacy show an encouraging line of sight to the other side of the pandemic — with current bookings for the third quarter of 2021 down approximately 40% versus down approximately 70% for December 2020 and January 2021 travel. While it will take time for the vaccine to be widely distributed, the Company’s confidence is even stronger in the recovery and the trajectory of the rebound in 2021 and beyond.
United Airlines, Inc. ("United"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL" and, together with United, the "Company"),continues to see a significant impact in demand for air travel. In the last month, ended December 10, 2020, there has been a continued deceleration in forward bookings as a result of the spike in COVID-19 cases and travel restrictions. As such, the Company now expects total revenue to be down close to70% in the fourth quarter of 2020 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
The Company now expects average daily cash burn during the fourth quarter of 2020 to be approximately $24 million to $26 million, plus $10 million of average debt principal payments and severance payments per day, driven by the continued deceleration in bookings, as well as a change in working capital which was due to a shift in timing of certain payments and receipts between quarters. For this purpose, "cash burn" is defined as net cash from operations,less investing and financing activities. Proceeds from the issuance of new debt (excluding expected aircraft financing), government grants associated with the Payroll Support Program of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (the "CARES Act"), issuance of new stock, net proceeds from the sale of short-term and other investments and changes in certain restricted cash balances are not included in this figure
.The Company does not expect the recovery to follow a linear path, however, recent positive results in vaccine development and efficacy show an encouraging line of sight to the other side of the pandemic — with current bookings for the third quarter of 2021 down approximately 40% versus down approximately 70% for December 2020 and January 2021 travel. While it will take time for the vaccine to be widely distributed, the Company’s confidence is even stronger in the recovery and the trajectory of the rebound in 2021 and beyond.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Dec 12, 2020 at 9:54 am Reason: repaired quote
Dec 12, 2020, 3:16 am
#1063
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
This report does confirm the reduced schedule thru the end of Jan being published the last few days and seems to mirror the recently announced Covid numbers and travel advisories.
Q3/21 outlook is pretty much "up in the air" and too far out, IMHO
Q3/21 outlook is pretty much "up in the air" and too far out, IMHO
Dec 14, 2020, 1:11 pm
#1064
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
Wonder if the deal Aeroplan just announced with Chase UR will siphon any UA MP elites, at least at the margins.
Let's see, if it's still true, after the temporary MP qualification levels are gone, that AC flights can earn more PQP than UA's own flights, the last thing they need was an enticement of transferring UR to Aeroplan.
Let's see, if it's still true, after the temporary MP qualification levels are gone, that AC flights can earn more PQP than UA's own flights, the last thing they need was an enticement of transferring UR to Aeroplan.
Dec 14, 2020, 1:19 pm
#1065
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,861
The new Aeroplan Credit Card from Chase is expected to launch in late 2021.