Mar 20, 2020, 9:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Jan 26, 2021, 11:30 am
#1141
Join Date: Jan 2018
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Jan 26, 2021, 11:48 am
#1142
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Agreed, the offset is 30 days, so instead of 100 days, it's probably 130 days, but that's manutiae. The broader point is a large Covid-free country, with a robust domestic economy, has shown us what domestic air travel looks like. What makes anyone think Americans will behave differently? Assuming Americans mirror the behavior above, it bodes well for UA financially. It also explains why UA's earnings call mentioned they are beginning 'heave maintenance' on the idle fleet. They think they'll need these birds later this year.
On topic, every time I am traveling from east coast to west coast, I fear the worst for UA, but then when I am traveling back to east coast from west coast, I remain hopeful for better days ahead at UA.
Jan 26, 2021, 12:43 pm
#1143
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,419
As far as the financial markets go, my interpretation is that the investment community has decided the airlines, including UA, are Too Big To Fail and that they will be propped up with endless government money until they can recover on their own. I believe all of the domestic airlines would otherwise either already be in bankruptcy proceedings or well on their way.
Jan 26, 2021, 12:47 pm
#1144
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
Jan 26, 2021, 1:02 pm
#1146
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
I actually find it amusing we're having a debate on whether UAs stock trajectory is up or down from this point forward.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 26, 2021 at 1:08 pm Reason: COVID vaccination projections removed per Moderator note; discuss the issue, not the poster(s)
Jan 26, 2021, 1:08 pm
#1147
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
I'm not convinced Wall Street estimates are a real reflection of the economy for people wanting to take a vacation but I hope you are right.
Jan 26, 2021, 1:15 pm
#1148
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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Location: Saipan, MP 96950 USA (Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands = the CNMI)
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Jan 26, 2021, 2:34 pm
#1149
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
Boom! And so it begins...
If Thailand follows through, I could see UA turning SIN back on which would consume 4-5 long-haul birds. Assuming a few countries definitively announce such reopening policies in Feb, it will impact forward bookings in March, which will make for a very well-received UA earnings call in early April!
Anyone thinking of shorting UA stock, as described above, may want to reconsider given the recent re-opening sentiment from Hawaii and now Thailand.
If Thailand follows through, I could see UA turning SIN back on which would consume 4-5 long-haul birds. Assuming a few countries definitively announce such reopening policies in Feb, it will impact forward bookings in March, which will make for a very well-received UA earnings call in early April!
Anyone thinking of shorting UA stock, as described above, may want to reconsider given the recent re-opening sentiment from Hawaii and now Thailand.
Jan 26, 2021, 2:35 pm
#1150
Join Date: Jun 2014
Programs: UA MM
Posts: 4,130
6.7% unemployment (and that doesn't include those furloughed or stopped looking for work). Ten of thousands of small business out of business. Are all those hunger charities not needed? Trillions more in stimulus not needed?
I'm not convinced Wall Street estimates are a real reflection of the economy for people wanting to take a vacation but I hope you are right.
I'm not convinced Wall Street estimates are a real reflection of the economy for people wanting to take a vacation but I hope you are right.
Jan 26, 2021, 3:26 pm
#1151
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Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,419
Jan 26, 2021, 4:20 pm
#1152
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Jan 26, 2021, 6:16 pm
#1153
Join Date: Dec 2018
Programs: $9 Fare Club
Posts: 1,485
Keeping strictly to UA, as has been mentioned already in this thread, UA debt is trading around par thus the market clearly thinks there is no significant Ch.11 risk or otherwise that debt would be trading at a material discount.
Indeed their issuance back in June was oversubscribed.
Indeed their issuance back in June was oversubscribed.
Jan 26, 2021, 6:55 pm
#1154
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The key issue is whether or not United management has a realistic Plan B to deal with type of outcome, or if they are still in this stage of their forecast:
Jan 26, 2021, 7:30 pm
#1155
Join Date: Dec 2018
Programs: $9 Fare Club
Posts: 1,485
The "market" is not exactly a leading indicator. Its forecast of the future of United, or America's global airlines in general, is not entrenched in reality given that we have no idea what reality really is or will be even 30 days from now. One mutant strain that slips past today's vaccines requiring a do-over and another round of vaccinations, with the risk that this scenario might repeat over and over, will send the airline industry into a very long, but abrupt tail-spin.
The key issue is whether or not United management has a realistic Plan B to deal with type of outcome, or if they are still in this stage of their forecast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRnv7Pp9T5Y
The key issue is whether or not United management has a realistic Plan B to deal with type of outcome, or if they are still in this stage of their forecast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRnv7Pp9T5Y
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 26, 2021 at 7:31 pm Reason: discuss the issue, not the poster(s)