Mar 20, 2020, 9:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Jan 28, 2021, 8:57 am
#1186
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,422
That's fair; there must be some additional factors at play, such as keeping pilots current, meeting contractual minima, etc. But there's also a big difference between the costs involved in operating a network of regional Florida flights and returning 787s to service to fly to Singapore.
Jan 28, 2021, 10:29 am
#1187
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Rochester, MN
Programs: UA Silver, Hilton HHonors Diamond, IHG Plat
Posts: 1,830
Outside of a miraculous event, I would say everyone will be filing by Q4 - I am just trying to time my purchase of puts across the industry. I think this is best for the business in general - dump the shareholders, renegotiate the contracts, get rid of excess leased capacity and maybe clean house at the management level and board, then start over with a clean slate based on the 'new normal'.
Jan 28, 2021, 1:11 pm
#1188
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 924
corporate travel, especially lucrative overseas business travel will be near zero in 1H21 and anemic at best in 2H21.
Remember that vaccines for kids are not available and won't be for a while and then that needs to roll out. So family vacation to Hawaii or overseas ... 2022 at the earliest.
I love the optimism ... but let's get down to reality
Remember that vaccines for kids are not available and won't be for a while and then that needs to roll out. So family vacation to Hawaii or overseas ... 2022 at the earliest.
I love the optimism ... but let's get down to reality
Jan 28, 2021, 7:34 pm
#1189
Join Date: Oct 2007
Programs: UA 1K 1MM / AA PP, Marriott Lifetime Gold
Posts: 949
The whole argument of "well I have learned I can do everything from Zoom. we'll never go back to flying in for meetings etc" is bunk. Everybody said that during the Great Recession (albeit of course Webex the big one then wasn't what is possible now) but look how the growth of the 2010-2020 period was for business travel and companies paying for business class. UA wouldn't have dropped hundreds of millions on Polaris lounges otherwise. Likely the shift back to business travel will take much longer than leisure as we know, and in the next few years biz travel demand will go up and at some unknown point will be back where it was unless some unknown economic calamities continue. Businesses realize the value of face-to-face interactions. Just because they've been able to stay in business with Zoom, perhaps companies whose employees are more willing to get back in the skies will prosper more than those relying on Zoom? Nobody knows! But business-travel-is-dead is nonsensical.
Jan 28, 2021, 9:39 pm
#1190
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
Posts: 42,231
The whole argument of "well I have learned I can do everything from Zoom. we'll never go back to flying in for meetings etc" is bunk. Everybody said that during the Great Recession (albeit of course Webex the big one then wasn't what is possible now) but look how the growth of the 2010-2020 period was for business travel and companies paying for business class. UA wouldn't have dropped hundreds of millions on Polaris lounges otherwise. Likely the shift back to business travel will take much longer than leisure as we know, and in the next few years biz travel demand will go up and at some unknown point will be back where it was unless some unknown economic calamities continue. Businesses realize the value of face-to-face interactions. Just because they've been able to stay in business with Zoom, perhaps companies whose employees are more willing to get back in the skies will prosper more than those relying on Zoom? Nobody knows! But business-travel-is-dead is nonsensical.
The move to remote work from local employees in local offices, at least in North America, is dramatic and likely permanent in many business where hands-on work isn't needed. This spill-over into most of the use cases for business travel is also likely permanent. Many people will still travel for business, many have no choice, but looking at the totality of change, the heydays of 2018-2019 are gone, likely for good....and United didn't drop hundreds of millions in Polaris with coronavirus in mind.
Jan 28, 2021, 11:50 pm
#1191
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
The move to remote work from local employees in local offices, at least in North America, is dramatic and likely permanent in many business where hands-on work isn't needed. This spill-over into most of the use cases for business travel is also likely permanent. Many people will still travel for business, many have no choice, but looking at the totality of change, the heydays of 2018-2019 are gone, likely for good....and United didn't drop hundreds of millions in Polaris with coronavirus in mind.
Jan 29, 2021, 6:58 am
#1192
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 4,772
....
The move to remote work from local employees in local offices, at least in North America, is dramatic and likely permanent in many business where hands-on work isn't needed. This spill-over into most of the use cases for business travel is also likely permanent. Many people will still travel for business, many have no choice, but looking at the totality of change, the heydays of 2018-2019 are gone, likely for good....and United didn't drop hundreds of millions in Polaris with coronavirus in mind.
The move to remote work from local employees in local offices, at least in North America, is dramatic and likely permanent in many business where hands-on work isn't needed. This spill-over into most of the use cases for business travel is also likely permanent. Many people will still travel for business, many have no choice, but looking at the totality of change, the heydays of 2018-2019 are gone, likely for good....and United didn't drop hundreds of millions in Polaris with coronavirus in mind.
Jan 29, 2021, 7:32 am
#1193
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
Jan 29, 2021, 11:46 am
#1195
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: 4éme
Posts: 12,044
Not sure how remote working connects with business travel. I know many people in the tech field that WFH and have no office cube but spend the majority of their time traveling to client sites. A lot of the business travel will never come back move to zoom talk that I encounter is coming from 'business consultants' who are trying to sell a concept to fit the current environment. Some of who ironically are trying to schedule face to face meetings... I actually sat next to one on a flight last week.
Jan 29, 2021, 1:19 pm
#1196
Join Date: Apr 2015
Programs: United Global Services, Amtrak Select Executive
Posts: 4,098
Vaccines don't cure the 'ick' factor because they don't prevent you from getting the virus, they only prevent or reduce the risk of getting sick from the virus, so the ick of someone sneezing on you and delivering a pathogen you don't want nor need, is still just as much there with the vaccine.
Jan 29, 2021, 1:35 pm
#1197
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
Daily cash burn in Q4 20, per financial reports. UA is in the middle of the pack:
DL $12 Millions,
UA $19 M;
AA $30 M
Just questionable if the numbers are based on identical metrics, and thus comparable?
DL $12 Millions,
UA $19 M;
AA $30 M
Just questionable if the numbers are based on identical metrics, and thus comparable?
Last edited by cesco.g; Jan 29, 2021 at 1:41 pm Reason: added Q
Jan 29, 2021, 8:53 pm
#1198
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: TPA for now. Hopefully LIS for retirement
Posts: 13,715
My company is itching to have us come back to the office and resume business travel as soon as it is deemed safe to do so.
I have greatly enjoyed working remotely instead of going into the windowless coal mine, err, I meant office, every day, and 90% of what I did pre-Covid when not traveling was talking to people on the phone in other states, which of course can be done from anywhere. (My company is not that enlightened and still sees a lot of value with in-person "face time."
)
However, the Covid business travel limitation has shown that 99% of what I traveled for is much more effective and better done by traveling and meeting in person rather than via awkward videoconference.
I have greatly enjoyed working remotely instead of going into the windowless coal mine, err, I meant office, every day, and 90% of what I did pre-Covid when not traveling was talking to people on the phone in other states, which of course can be done from anywhere. (My company is not that enlightened and still sees a lot of value with in-person "face time."
)However, the Covid business travel limitation has shown that 99% of what I traveled for is much more effective and better done by traveling and meeting in person rather than via awkward videoconference.
Last edited by Bear96; Jan 29, 2021 at 9:08 pm
Feb 19, 2021, 4:15 pm
#1199
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
What a great week for United.
1. UAL stock soars, leading a broader airline rally
2. New BOS-LHR service
3. Retaliated against Jetblue's EWR encroachment
4. $1B of taxis ordered
Looks like UA is positioned to thrive coming out of the Pandemic. As entertaining as this thread was over the past year, the final chapter is one where UA took a few dollars from the govt, but didn't end up needing any of it. Hopefully the loan will be paid back shortly, followed by the resumption of share buybacks!
1. UAL stock soars, leading a broader airline rally
2. New BOS-LHR service
3. Retaliated against Jetblue's EWR encroachment
4. $1B of taxis ordered
Looks like UA is positioned to thrive coming out of the Pandemic. As entertaining as this thread was over the past year, the final chapter is one where UA took a few dollars from the govt, but didn't end up needing any of it. Hopefully the loan will be paid back shortly, followed by the resumption of share buybacks!
Feb 19, 2021, 7:33 pm
#1200
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,809
What a great week for United.
1. UAL stock soars, leading a broader airline rally
2. New BOS-LHR service
3. Retaliated against Jetblue's EWR encroachment
4. $1B of taxis ordered
Looks like UA is positioned to thrive coming out of the Pandemic. As entertaining as this thread was over the past year, the final chapter is one where UA took a few dollars from the govt, but didn't end up needing any of it. Hopefully the loan will be paid back shortly, followed by the resumption of share buybacks!
1. UAL stock soars, leading a broader airline rally
2. New BOS-LHR service
3. Retaliated against Jetblue's EWR encroachment
4. $1B of taxis ordered
Looks like UA is positioned to thrive coming out of the Pandemic. As entertaining as this thread was over the past year, the final chapter is one where UA took a few dollars from the govt, but didn't end up needing any of it. Hopefully the loan will be paid back shortly, followed by the resumption of share buybacks!