Mar 20, 2020, 9:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Sep 9, 2021, 1:16 pm
#1291
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
You may not have a customer to meet face-to-face if the company you are trying to sell to has a remote worker policy - of which, many companies are pivoting to more work at home scenarios. That will be a huge challenge for business travel to pick back up. Businesses have realized all that expensive real estate can be significantly downsized and the Bay Area is a good example of that.
Sep 9, 2021, 1:17 pm
#1292
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
Posts: 42,231
While we’re seeing hits to demand from current waves, all of the airlines are saying they’re significantly less than in the past. There is huge pent up demand for travel and we’re seeing more people willing to hit the road as they’re comfortable and/or fatigued from sitting at home.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Sep 9, 2021 at 1:20 pm Reason: discuss the issue, nt the poster
Sep 9, 2021, 1:43 pm
#1294
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,455
Nocella offered some relevant analysis during today's Cowen transportation conference (emphasis mine):
https://seekingalpha.com/article/445...-annual-global
Sure. Well, it's great to be here. I clearly would much rather prefer to be in Boston today and that's -- that was the plan. And I also clearly would have preferred a different type of 8-K than the one we issued this morning, because that was the outlook only a few weeks ago. Clearly a lot has changed in a very short period of time. When we had our Q2 earnings call and we talked about our outlook, we felt very certain about that outlook to be clear. And our July performance in fact as we put in the 8-K came in really on plan and we're really pleased by that. And I can assure you that the August outlook at that point in time was to in fact exceed July, and we are really on that pace. But unfortunately just right after the earnings call, the headlines for the Delta variant and what was happening here in the country and around the world really overtook the situation and quickly changed the outlooks, which now I think reflect in the 8-K that United put out this morning and quite frankly what we're seeing around the industry. So we're all disappointed by that.
But that being said, we really saw some really significant lumbers of hope in July and where we were going to be in August. We saw a great response to firm surveys to our business customers that they are ready to get back in the air. But all that's been delayed and it's been delayed by probably three to four months, more likely early next year at this point than not. The crystal balls have been a little bit foggy to say the least as we've gone through this crisis. And we at United had never really wanted to get too far ahead of the reality on the ground and in the air and we think we've done a reasonably good job at that. And the same is true as we look at Q4 now. We're really carefully evaluating our capacity outlook to make sure given where we see demand that we have it in the right spot.
That being said, I will say in terms of hope that the last few day’s bookings as we passed the holiday have been better. So I do feel like the situation is stabilizing. It is not getting any worse. So we feel good about the outlook we just put out as a result of that. And as quickly as things went south maybe is the best way to describe it, we also think things can quickly move right in back in the positive projection. And so we're anxious for that to happen, but we're going to be really careful and plot our recovery to make sure we don't get too far ahead of actual demand.
But that being said, we really saw some really significant lumbers of hope in July and where we were going to be in August. We saw a great response to firm surveys to our business customers that they are ready to get back in the air. But all that's been delayed and it's been delayed by probably three to four months, more likely early next year at this point than not. The crystal balls have been a little bit foggy to say the least as we've gone through this crisis. And we at United had never really wanted to get too far ahead of the reality on the ground and in the air and we think we've done a reasonably good job at that. And the same is true as we look at Q4 now. We're really carefully evaluating our capacity outlook to make sure given where we see demand that we have it in the right spot.
That being said, I will say in terms of hope that the last few day’s bookings as we passed the holiday have been better. So I do feel like the situation is stabilizing. It is not getting any worse. So we feel good about the outlook we just put out as a result of that. And as quickly as things went south maybe is the best way to describe it, we also think things can quickly move right in back in the positive projection. And so we're anxious for that to happen, but we're going to be really careful and plot our recovery to make sure we don't get too far ahead of actual demand.
Sep 9, 2021, 1:48 pm
#1295
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
The data shows more people are hitting the road than last winter, but fewer than this summer.
Sep 9, 2021, 2:26 pm
#1296
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,861
Also listened to Andrew Nocella, Chief Commercial Officer, being interviewed 09/09/2021 10:30 AM CDT as a part of Cowen 14th Annual Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference
View Webcast
The interviewer was”interesting’
View Webcast
- The opening question was about today’s 8-K release
- He stated UA is seeing this as a 3-4 month delay however saw some signs in the last week of some positive booking signs (personal comment: similar bump up also reported in BofA weekly airline report)
- UA will have less capacity for Thanksgiving and Christmas than previously planned
- True to form, the analyst, Helena Becker, asked when was UA thinking about raising prices. Andrew responded supply and demand was setting prices – and there is excess supply
- When asked about using analytics to predict demand, Andrew stated headlines were driving demand more so than “data”
- Asked about 2022 summer, Andrew mentioned the new leisure routes did very well this summer
- Some discussion about cabin refreshes / new aircraft / United Next
- Future China – very reduced, with return dependent on government travel restrictions, have moved capacity elsewhere
- Grounded 777 – work progressing, expect some return by first of next year, due to COVID the loss capacity has not been missed, will need for hoped for demand in 2022
The interviewer was”interesting’
Sep 9, 2021, 8:28 pm
#1297
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Morris County, NJ
Programs: UA 1K/*G, Avis Pres, Marriott Plat
Posts: 2,305
You may not have a customer to meet face-to-face if the company you are trying to sell to has a remote worker policy - of which, many companies are pivoting to more work at home scenarios. That will be a huge challenge for business travel to pick back up. Businesses have realized all that expensive real estate can be significantly downsized and the Bay Area is a good example of that.
The real estate is the least of it. People buy from people; I'm a firm believer in that. The space doesn't matter, but the personal bond sure does.
Just like dilanesp pointed out, one of United's greatest commercials ever was about EXACTLY this. Exactly this.