Mar 20, 2020, 9:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Dec 22, 2020, 9:45 pm
#1096
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,809
That seems to be a rather narrow way of looking at it to me. The employees affected can certainly opt to stay home and collect unemployment but a lot of people would rather be doing something. Being able to work will definitely help some with the mental health aspects of dealing with this situation for over a year and the time on payroll will give them and United a chance at refresher training. Bring them onboard for the three months they can afford and see how the situation changes over the next few months, what's wrong with that?
People need to work -- and for more reasons than just income.
People need to work -- and for more reasons than just income.
The intent may be to keep these folks around permanently, but then that begs the question if travel doesn’t rebound in three months, are we going to continue to prop up these failing businesses until it does, possibly years into the future? I think not. So now UA is saddled with the training costs to reactivate these employees, employees are given no choice but to return, and then in three months time it all becomes a massive waste of everyone’s time and money.
Dec 23, 2020, 7:13 am
#1097
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: TPA for now. Hopefully LIS for retirement
Posts: 13,715
That seems to be a rather narrow way of looking at it to me. The employees affected can certainly opt to stay home and collect unemployment but a lot of people would rather be doing something. Being able to work will definitely help some with the mental health aspects of dealing with this situation for over a year and the time on payroll will give them and United a chance at refresher training.
Dec 23, 2020, 7:53 am
#1098
Join Date: Jun 2014
Programs: UA MM
Posts: 4,130
I don't understand what "work" they will be doing. UA (and other airlines) aren't increasing the number of flights they will be operating from now through March - typically the slowest time of year after New Year's anyways - in response to this. They don't have a need more employees right now. They'll just be paying people to sit at home, as tphuang pointed out.
Dec 23, 2020, 9:30 am
#1099
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: TPA for now. Hopefully LIS for retirement
Posts: 13,715
It's likely UA and other airlines will increase flights and therefore need a larger workforce. The government is going to require service be restored to some destinations. Additionally, the economics of flying will change, too. The labor cost component for operating a flight will be lower and that may allow UA and others to operate flights in a cash-positive position that they otherwise couldn't.
And as I mentioned, Jan-Mar is the slowest time of year anyways. A lot of airlines lay off people in the winter during normal times, or at least would if collective bargaining agreements permitted it. The annual winter layoffs were why, for example, AFA at UA negotiated a prohibition against the practice so instead now they just assign lots of people vacations then (which junior people are often forced into) and ask people to volunteer to take a couple months off during that period.
Dec 23, 2020, 4:21 pm
#1100
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 4,772
"Importantly, though, we don't expect customer demand to change much between now and the end of the first quarter of 2021. United has been realistic about our outlook throughout the crisis, and we've tried to give you an honest assessment every step of the way. The truth is, we just don't see anything in the data that shows a huge difference in bookings over the next few months. That is why we expect the recall will be temporary"
Jan 21, 2021, 11:05 am
#1101
Suspended
Join Date: Feb 2009
Programs: DL, UA, AA, VS
Posts: 5,226
Saw an interview with Kirby on CNBC this morning, after they reported $1.9 billion loss for the quarter.
He says there's "huge pent up demand" for travel.
Also says he believe vaccine certificates will be important for resuming international travel.
He says there's "huge pent up demand" for travel.
Also says he believe vaccine certificates will be important for resuming international travel.
Jan 21, 2021, 11:21 am
#1102
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: HNL
Programs: UA GS4MM, MR LT Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 6,447
More likely than not, the summer leisure travel season will be largely wiped out - international travel almost non-existent in 2021 - and most business travel won't be approved in 2021.
Jan 21, 2021, 12:20 pm
#1103
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
1. The numbers released last night show the US is vaccinating nearly 1,000,000 people per day.
2. Hopefully that number peaks at ~2MM per day.
3. 330 million people in US, less 80 million kids not eligible, less 75 million vaccine non-believers, leaves 175 million
4. 16MM people vaccinated as of yesterday, leaving 160MM to go.
Anyway, not trying to get into a vaccine debate, but the numbers support the US being fully vaccinated by May/June. That will allow for a robust summer travel season domestically and internationally. I could see UA bookings accelerate in March as the numbers above start to become broadly understood by the average flyer.
The passport will be important. It will allow tourism-centric economies to allow vaccinated tourists this summer! That's a big deal for United especially to, the UK, Southern Europe, SE Asia, Japan, Hawaii, Carribean, and South Africa.
Jan 21, 2021, 12:46 pm
#1104
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: TOA
Programs: HH Diamond, Marriott LTPP/Platinum Premier, Hyatt Lame-ist, UA !K
Posts: 20,061
The numbers don't support such a pessimistic outlook.
1. The numbers released last night show the US is vaccinating nearly 1,000,000 people per day.
2. Hopefully that number peaks at ~2MM per day.
3. 330 million people in US, less 80 million kids not eligible, less 75 million vaccine non-believers, leaves 175 million
4. 16MM people vaccinated as of yesterday, leaving 160MM to go.
Anyway, not trying to get into a vaccine debate, but the numbers support the US being fully vaccinated by May/June. That will allow for a robust summer travel season domestically and internationally. I could see UA bookings accelerate in March as the numbers above start to become broadly understood by the average flyer.
The passport will be important. It will allow tourism-centric economies to allow vaccinated tourists this summer! That's a big deal for United especially to, the UK, Southern Europe, SE Asia, Japan, Hawaii, Carribean, and South Africa.
1. The numbers released last night show the US is vaccinating nearly 1,000,000 people per day.
2. Hopefully that number peaks at ~2MM per day.
3. 330 million people in US, less 80 million kids not eligible, less 75 million vaccine non-believers, leaves 175 million
4. 16MM people vaccinated as of yesterday, leaving 160MM to go.
Anyway, not trying to get into a vaccine debate, but the numbers support the US being fully vaccinated by May/June. That will allow for a robust summer travel season domestically and internationally. I could see UA bookings accelerate in March as the numbers above start to become broadly understood by the average flyer.
The passport will be important. It will allow tourism-centric economies to allow vaccinated tourists this summer! That's a big deal for United especially to, the UK, Southern Europe, SE Asia, Japan, Hawaii, Carribean, and South Africa.
David
Jan 21, 2021, 1:09 pm
#1105
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: 4éme
Posts: 12,044
Of course he is going to say as CEO there is a huge pent up demand for travel, whether that is real or imagined. My recent flights are going out mostly empty regardless of the rock bottom prices. The UC clubs I've been visiting are mostly empty.
More likely than not, the summer leisure travel season will be largely wiped out - international travel almost non-existent in 2021 - and most business travel won't be approved in 2021.
More likely than not, the summer leisure travel season will be largely wiped out - international travel almost non-existent in 2021 - and most business travel won't be approved in 2021.
Jan 21, 2021, 1:25 pm
#1106
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
There's no downside to your population and nothing but upside to your economy...
Having your home country fully vaccinated is a huge advantage for UA on the long-haul front...you get to take the passenger away, and fly them back.
Airlines like Singapore, Thai, Air India, Air France, etc. won't have that advantage!
Jan 21, 2021, 1:30 pm
#1107
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Silicon wasteland
Programs: UA 1KMM
Posts: 1,381
That's the interesting part. Wouldn't you permit a vaccinated tourist to enter your country -- regardless of the state of your local vaccination program?
There's no downside to your population and nothing but upside to your economy...
Having your home country fully vaccinated is a huge advantage for UA on the long-haul front...you get to take the passenger away, and fly them back.
Airlines like Singapore, Thai, Air India, Air France, etc. won't have that advantage!
There's no downside to your population and nothing but upside to your economy...
Having your home country fully vaccinated is a huge advantage for UA on the long-haul front...you get to take the passenger away, and fly them back.
Airlines like Singapore, Thai, Air India, Air France, etc. won't have that advantage!
your making a big assumption that vaccinated people cant spread the disease. Vaccinations prevent serious disease and death for covid. The latest data indicate it's much less good at preventing.asymptomatic cases.
So, the jury is still out if a vaccinated tourist is safe to a non vaccinated population.
Jan 21, 2021, 1:38 pm
#1108
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.997MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,861
We are getting wildly off topic -- vaccination discussion belong in Coronavirus and travel or in the appropriate destination forum. There are active discussions on this on those forums.
This thread and forum is about UA
WineCountryUA
UA coModerator
This thread and forum is about UA
WineCountryUA
UA coModerator
Jan 21, 2021, 6:27 pm
#1109
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
I feel dozens of countries will do exactly this.
March/April/May could see record forward bookings for United.
We may even want to change the title of this thread to 'United's Financial Health Exiting Covid'
Jan 21, 2021, 7:27 pm
#1110
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,234
True, but Hawaii is moving towards dropping testing/quarantine requirements for vaccinated people.
I feel dozens of countries will do exactly this.
March/April/May could see record forward bookings for United.
We may even want to change the title of this thread to 'United's Financial Health Exiting Covid'
I feel dozens of countries will do exactly this.
March/April/May could see record forward bookings for United.
We may even want to change the title of this thread to 'United's Financial Health Exiting Covid'