spartacusmcfly

Reasons why UA should pursue SA route aggressively:

1. UA has proven their hubs support luxury leisure routes (countless examples)
2. EWR-CPT was a big success and was renewed before covid
3. SA filed for bankruptcy and will emerge as a local airline
4. Via Europe is a PIA
5. Leisure travelers will love the triangle as they will likely enter one city and leave from another
6. Business travelers won't mind the triangle if it is staggered (meaning EWR-JNB-CPT 4x, EWR-CPT 3x)
7. NY metro travelers will be encouraged to use Delta given SA departure -- so UA should answer
8. Atlanta feels like it's on the way to South Africa from the northeast but it's really not -- too far west
9. UA has lots of 787s looking for somewhere to fly -- any cashflow positive route is better than idle frames
10. Delta's A350s will be pulled to other routes given they're retiring the 777 fleet.

EWR764

UA is less likely to return if the high-end international leisure market rebounds slowly, since that was the target of the EWR-CPT flight. Business travel to CPT is not a significant driver of traffic.

DL's ATL-JNB is a business route, and would remain nonstop in both directions if the A359 could make JNB-ATL on a hot summer day (field elevation at JNB limits performance). The triangle routing adds an extra stop for all travelers so it is inherently less-desirable for all pax in at least one direction.

escapefromphl

Attempting to only compete in multiple entrant Asian and European markets is a recipe for lower profits. These markets are oversaturated with competition. Airlines like Cathay Pacific and Virgin Atlantic are finding this out. UA is also overexposed. UA should also go where there is less competition. Perhaps more domestic flying or long thin routes to wherever the market will support. It doesn't mean cede the market completely, just diversify and reduce risk.

CALMSP

can you explain a little more on what economics prove that UA cannot fly CPT-EWR but DL can fly JNB-CPT-ATL? I would say UA is the incumbent with DL being the new player in CPT. Unless you have some further knowledge that I do not.

gmt4

I'm just applying logic to the argument. Going forward I have to question why UA would press forward on an unknown & untested market for them when there are other major global players to compete against. The traffic wasn't there for UA before, why would it suddenly appear now? If the market could have supported a UA entry earlier then UA would have moved on it long ago, before 2019. This isn't a risk-on industry now. Years from now maybe it will be. The calculus on what makes financial sense has changed. People seem to be deliberately ignoring the massive and unquantifiable scope of problems the entire industry is facing going forward. Why bet on a route like this now? It doesn't pass any logic test. Gripes about transfers in Europe being a PITA so a nonstop is justified or that leisure travelers from NY can sustain this are ridiculous. UA has come out and said they will be smaller. There will be aircraft retirements and personnel layoffs. The smart play is focusing on re-establishing and re-growing your proven winners and leveraging your alliance partners for thin routes like this. Frankly I don't understand the arguments here today for a downright oddball of a route when there is no idea going forward what the demand will be hub-hub domestically let alone anything else internationally. Baby steps first. Then attempts at turning fantasies to reality can come along.

spartacusmcfly

Because South African Airways has shut down and is no longer serving JFK. The NY metro area is UA's flagship hub, so who better to fill the newly created void?

If your point is Covid = proceed with caution, of course you're right, but that's obvious. The reason for UA to announce EWR-JNB/CPT quickly is threefold:

1. Get the schedule loaded to assess demand in Q3/4.
2. Once SA emerges from bankruptcy, they will focus on intra-Africa routes and cautiously select inter-continental routes. If UA has announced triangle service, SA will likely scratch JFK from the list.
3. Kirby just announced that for UA, counterintuitively, int'l routes turn profitable before domestic routes due to cargo revenue.
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CALMSP

unless you are saying this in todays current environment, you seem to be making an argument of "UA should not move into an unknown & untested market where there is ZERO competition. As for moving in earlier, there really wasn't an economically acceptable a/c to make EWR-JNB work. Flying a 777-200 from EWR is going to have an operating cost much higher. this was the whole goal for airlines to operate these routes with the 787 and that is exactly what UA has done.

TBD

SAA will emerge from bankruptcy? Last I heard, the government was going to let it fail and just start a new airline.

spartacusmcfly

Doesn't work that way. Debt holders don't want to be handed an aircraft and the new airline doesn't want to start from scratch. It's always cheaper to restructure the debt and keep going.

FriscoHeavy

We flew the CPT-EWR route in February and it was stuffed to the gills.

from others, the route did well for them and exceeded expectations. We will be flying the route again in Feb 2022. I sure hope they are going to continue the route.

There may be a lot of threats, but DL isn’t one of them on this route.

TBD

They don't want to, but that is the risk of issuing credit. Starting over gives ZA a good opportunity to restructure human capital, which SAA desperately needed.

WineCountryUA

There are active discussions of the future of SAA in the SAA forum, please continue that discussion there.

WineCountryUA
UA coModerator

stopdiabetes

TRUE

cfischer

How are we judging EWR-CPT was a big commercial success? I continue to see very very low fares to South Africa ... hard to believe UA is making a lot of dough here. Did anyone publish any profitability?

ctownflyer

No idea if it was big, but they brought it back and started the season in October instead of December.