EmailKid

Not sure what would fly to BKK, and I don't know if Hard Disk Drives fly as opposed to sail, but many of my HDDs in my computers say Made in Thailand. I think there is fair bit of electronics assembly in Kingdom of Thailand.

spin88

I can't find a list that separates out transhipment/connection traffic (e.g. #2 MEM is a fed-ex hub, #4 ANC is a refuling hub). But BKK is #2 1 in cargo traffic (below LHR, ahead of JFK)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._cargo_traffic

5khours

I agree. I was saying with other carriers publishing $3500 on some fares, UA is not likely to get more than that ($3500) on their corporate J fares. I suspect UA would probably show published (close in) fares in the $6k to $8k range at least for a while. UA can probably average $3 to $3.5k with decent yields in J for a year or two. But again longer term, I don't see how UA stays in the TPAC market. Their product is inferior. Their labor costs are wildly out of line. If TG starts exercising their fifth freedom rights through Japan and Seoul and then team up with Alaska or JetBlue, UA an DL are both totally cooked.

AndyInSaigon

TG is such a mess and won't be cooking anyone any time soon. They tried Japan and/or Seoul with various connection times for decades. They didn't make money then, I cannot imagine why they would now.

5khours

Agree. They're are some big hurdles.... but

1. TG doesn't have to make money in order to put pressure on UA fares.
2. Before when TG was flying to the US, a) UA still had a very competitive premium product on TPAC, b) TG didn't have the example of SQ and JL partnering with AS to show them how to pick up feeder traffic in the U.S., c) TYO<>BKK O&D traffic was a lot lower back then.
3. Management incompetence at TG could be the reason TG restarts their fifth freedom flights (they could easily make the right decision for the wrong reason.)
4. From a cost, product and geography perspective, TG is the best positioned carrier to pick up share in the premium TPAC market.
5. There could be a miracle at TG (look at how JL turned itself around.)

That said, I suspect you're probably right .... at least for the short term.... which is why I said "if"

JVPhoto

uastarflyer

I don’t see why SGN can’t follow the CTU model of 3x/weekly. It is an emerging tech manufacturing area (eg Cisco, HP) as is Thailand.

spin88

I think we are seeing it the say way. I just don't think you can look at SFO-SIN as a model as some have. While UA nearly always gets less per seat in published price than SQ (even even less in J with corporate discounts), the demand is high enough that SQ is often sells out in J had has really high fares for the last seat or few seats. E.g. If I need to go to SIN in J, on 4/23 its $3,058 on UA, $8565 on SQ; Tu 4/24-W 4/25 its $3,058 on UA, $4,848 on SQ; Th 4/26-F 4/27 its $4,848 on UA, $6,638 on SQ; Sat 4/28 UA $4848, SQ has no flight; Sun 4/29 both are $4,848, M 4/20 UA $4848, SQ$ 6,638. These are all one way fares! (RT is basically doubt this).

In turn, on these close in flights I can get (most days) a RT in Y of $894 on UA and $1102 (or so) on SQ. SQ gets a few more $$$ than UA, but the Y demand is not that high. Contrast that with e.g. flying SFO-LHR. If I want to do that last minute in Y, well it will run me $2,488+/- RT.

My guess is that BKK (and SGN) is the exactly flip of SFO-SIN. There will be a lot of Y demand (tourists, or in the case of SGN Vietnamese going to visit family) that that traffic is like SFO-MNL, it is a low end trade. UA would have to offer J fares at more of a buy up price.



I think you make out a good business case (other than for #5 , or #3 TG has made clear it will be direct with the A359) and I am not expecting a "business" miracle. That said, despite horrible management, TG has a very GOOD reputation for service. Flyers care what they see on the planes, not about the crazy behind the scenes. TG is getting nice, new A359s. They have good J and Y product (no PE or E+ mind you, but standard pitch is 32") and I think most Americans would be happy to fly them compaired to UA. To give an e.g. UA gets a 3 of 10 in ratings on Skytrax United Airlines Customer Reviews | SKYTRAX Thai for all of the management noise and bad A/C selection gets a 7 out of 10 Thai Airways Customer Reviews | SKYTRAX

And as you said, TG can undercut UA on cost.

The Koreans are the ones who have invested heavily in Vietnam, less so UA companies. I just don't see the business traffic that say Thailand has, and there is almost no high value tourism. BKK and the beaches have world class resorts which attract people flying J, Vietnam does not (or not to the same extent). CTU was also launched with a major corporate account basically demanding it, and a lot more US linked high tech manufacturing. I just don't see anything similar re SGN.

5khours

No definitely not, but they can grab a significant amount of Japan<>US O&D traffic from the US carriers.

exerda

Gets miles off the fiscal books. I don't believe GPUs are tracked as a liability like miles are, but I could be wrong.

PsiFighter37

5khours

I don't think they are. If there were, there would be some kind of note in the financials and there is never a mention there of UG instruments....only miles. Agree with you though that in theory they should be treated the same as miles.

mduell

Cargo revenue is not cost-free, so I don't think you can make that conclusion from the information you've offered.

DA201

I doubt it. A successful fifth freedom flight needs name recognition in the two countries/cities. Thai currently has no presence in the US, so US based travelers are unlikely to go out of their way to find their flight. SQ & EK have name recognition in the US, and this allows them to successfully operate US fifth freedom flights. A good comparison is PR, which operates YVR-JFK with abysmal load factors because it has little name recognition.

5khours

By that theory, it would be impossible to ever start a new business or launch a new product.